Market In Rally Mode, UBER’s Ad Business, TSLA Cybertruck Timing, And Much More

Here’s the transcript from today’s live Q&A chat. As always, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @TradingWithCody.

Q. This rally has been incredible; especially in our names. What is driving this rally? AI? Earnings growth optimism? Eventual rate tightening? Optimism that the recession won’t be that bad? Market looking six months ahead? All of the above? To be honest, as great as the rally has been, it doesn’t feel very sustainable.

A. Yes, we’ve seen some hellacious moves in many of our names in the last month, and some of it (INTC, UBER, TSLA for example) is probably partly based on AI momentum and AI FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). We might not have (another) recession (we had two down quarters of GDP growth last year). I’m still a bit cautious on the broader markets but I still love pretty much all of our Revolution stocks.

Q. What are your top 5 buys right now?

A. I’m a better buyer on sell-offs and panicky action, but feet-to-fire, my favorite buys right now would probably be (in alphabetical order): GLD, INTC, SMR, TSLA, UBER.

Q. What are your 5 largest positions?

A. In the hedge fund, in alphabetical order: INTC, RKLB, ROK, TSLA, and UBER.

Q. Generally your response to questions regarding top 5 positions is as you stated today “In the hedge fund”?

A. Yes, mostly because most of our readers haven’t owned AAPL since 20 cents from 2003 or NVDA since $7 from 2016 or bitcoin since $100 in 2013 and the hedge fund is probably a better reflection of what I think most people’s portfolios should look like right now.

Q. Thoughts on adding some BITO here? I remember you saying added BITO under $15.

A. Yes, we nibbled more BITO for the hedge fund near $14 on the big hit it took earlier this week, as planned. Will buy more near $13 if it gets there.

Q. Where would you consider the safest place to custody Bitcoin? Is cold storage the only safe option? How risky do you think Coinbase is?

A. Cold storage is the only safe option. We pulled all of our money out of Coinbase because I am worried that the SEC is going to lock the assets there.

Q. With regards to Uber, how does the rollout of ads while waiting for your Uber and while in the Uber change the thesis? Feels like it can only be a positive and drive the bottom line.

A. It’s high margin and incremental and easy to create revenue for Uber. It’s always been part of my thesis, so it doesn’t change much in my thesis but I don’t think the average Wall Street analyst has modeled much of that high-margin ad business into Uber’s numbers for the next five years.

Q. I want to add some more UBER at these levels?

A. It’s a big position for us and I’m holding it mostly steady and if you don’t own as much as you want, maybe nibble a little bit here. But I wouldn’t rush into a giant tranche of it just now at these 52-week highs it’s setting most days lately.

Q. We started buying Intel at higher levels and bought on weakness as well. With the recent rally from the mid 20’s, we’ve had a nice run here. Feels like there are some positive headwinds behind the company for long-term appreciation. How do we manage when the company is at the beginning of what (we hope) is a long-term transformation?

A. If Intel’s fab business can catch traction and/or if they can take some market share in CPUs and/or if demand for their chips spikes due to AI build-outs, the stock can have a LOT of upside from here. Nothing wrong with trimming a little bit here and there after a huge run in the stock as we’ve seen but mostly I plan on holding this position, a large one, steady for now.

Q. I loved the article/research on Tesla and other car companies. Certainly reaffirmed the belief we have in Tesla. Tesla, like a lot of our names, has seen an incredible rally over the last few weeks. We recently trimmed but obviously believe long term in the company. At what price would you be comfortable buying more Tesla? $200/share? $180/share?

A. It’s my largest position as it has been for years and I’m mostly holding it tight. I do try to hedge it a little bit in the hedge fund by shorting some covered calls and/or trimming a tiny bit here and there but mostly this is a “Forever Position”. I’d probably buy more/open up more exposure to the name near $200.

Q. Is TSLA still working on the Cyber Truck? What is the current expectation for when deliveries might begin?

A. Oh yes, they are hard at work on finalizing the production lines for Cybertruck in Austin. There was a Cybertruck wrapped in a camouflage covering going through a drive-thru at In-n-Out Burger this week that I saw on Twitter. I expect to receive my (first) Cybertruck by the end of this year (we ordered ours within the first five minutes so that anybody could place their order for the Cybertruck on the day they revealed it three years ago.

Q. Cody: Are there any plans (as far as you know) for TSLA to enter the SUV market? It would seem to be a tremendous untapped market opportunity.

A. They consider the Model X to be an SUV and the Model Y is a crossover SUV. I think Tesla is more interested in building a Model 2 small car that would retail for less than $30,000 than creating a new SUV line.

Q. Really? I didn’t think either looked large enough to qualify as an SUV; they look more like sedans to me.

A. Here’s what Tesla says: “Tesla Model Y is a fully electric, mid-size SUV with unparalleled protection and versatile cargo space.”

Q. Are BKSY and RDW still in the TWC portfolio? I see them both in the April Latest Positions report. What is the latest thinking on these names?

A. Yes, I still own both of them and think there could be big upside for each of them in the coming years. That said, if they don’t keep growing quickly, I’ll probably sell them like I did PL recently.

Q. Would you add to either BKSY or RDW right now?

A. If I didn’t own any of either I might nibble a little bit. But they’ve both popped big since we nibbled on them recently and I’d probably use small tranches to nibble and hope they come down some. Neither is a large position.

Q. Can you let me know what you thought of $INDI? Much appreciated.

A. We will add it to our Semiconductor spreadsheet and do some work on it. Let you know if we like what we find.

Q. Do we know what caused SPCE’s huge spike? Some positive traction for the broader space industry/economy?

A. Virgin Galactic announced plans to do a commercial launch with real people testing no gravity in the next few weeks.

Q. When will CVNA have a secondary offering? They will be out of $ soon.

A. I would expect they’ll be doing a secondary any day now. They’ll still run out of money when it’s all over though. The company’s founders took out $6 billion cash by selling CVNA stock but the company didn’t raise billions when its stock was at the insane levels the founders were selling at.

Q. Please provide an updated list of where you would but more of the stocks in the portfolio(s)…in the event of a selloff…

A. Yes, will do!

Q. Can you PLEASE add a link on the face page of TWC website stating when the next chat is scheduled. I often forget and/or the alert is in an email I didn’t read (yet) carefully….or it’s buried in somewhere else. Long story short … the notification process seems arbitrary; it’s in a different place each week whenever Cody decides when it fits in his schedule, which is fine, but it’s hard to remember. Put it on the website, please.

A. Great idea. We’re going to spend some time updating the TradingWithCody.com site and will add this feature.

That’s a wrap. Thanks all.

I leave you all with a picture of my daughter, Lyncoln, at a golf camp earlier this week. She’s got better form than me (or Bryce)!