Market Price Predictions, Cody Bat Computer, Spock Stock and More
Q. Cody…feet to fire, where do you see the Dow, Nasdaq 3 months, into year end and out a year from now?
A. In 3 months, DJIA at 30,300, Nazz at 11,500. At year end, DJIA at 32,000 and Nazz at 12,500. One year from now, DJIA at 32,000, Nazz at 12,000.
Q. Cody .ant thoughts on gold ? Taken a beating lately. Thnx
A. I still own some gold personally, but I have no GLD or other gold/precious metals exposure in the hedge fund. If gold couldn’t go up during the greatest bubble ever or during the crash since the greatest bubble ever ended, when will it go up?
Q. Cody latest trade alert indicates your main focus now is onshoring, space, and biotech- are you softening on metaverse plays?
A. Hmm, I wouldn’t say I’m softening on FB and U, our two Metaverse plays but maybe that’s just semantics. The fact is that I don’t think I plan on buying much more FB or U anytime soon and I do plan on buying more Onshoring and Space and Biotech names soon.
Q. Cody what about MP. Are you still a believer. ? I think at one time it could be a 10 bagger? Also: One was actually Re MP referenced above: You’ve said you don’t like the guy who brought the stock out as a SPAC). Could you possibly expand on that a bit? Still looking to add lower or holding tight for now?
A. Yes, I still like MP. If they can grow their topline 15% per year for the next five years, which I think is doable, the stock is trading at 9x my 2027 profit estimates. As for Chamath Palypatalia, the self-proclaimed SPAC King who can’t keep his stories straight…I have a hard time disliking anybody more than I like that guy. I don’t want to dislike him, but I can’t remember the last time he did something that I didn’t REALLY dislike.
Q. Cody: with the potential fuel shortage, what odds would you give for EU going into a deep or deeper recession in the next 12 months?
A. Not sure it’s from the potential fuel shortage and I think Europe’s already in recession but it might not be a deep or long-lasting recession.
Q. For chat July 22…In your last latest position report part IV you wrote:..” Qualcomm’s cyclical growth from 5G is probably in about the 3rd inning…” and “I’m sitting tight for now but I’d probably trim QCOM at $140ish and I’d probably nibble more at $110ish.” QCOM was around $130 then and has rallied to about $155; did you trim any? Are you trimming now?
A. I trimmed a little QCOM in the hedge fund recently.
Q. Cody would love to hear more about your 2 newest picks and how big of a tranche we should be buying at this time – LLAP and ROK. Thanks!
A. I’ll write much more about each of them in coming days and will send out the initiation report on them when I finish it up. I wouldn’t plan to make to LLAP a big position, but keep it small. I plan on making ROK a big position over coming days and weeks. I’d maybe look to start with about a 1/3 sized tranche in each, but again I’d keep LLAP probably less than half the size I’ll eventually make ROK.
Q. Cody, Do you think Musk will be forced to buy Twitter at the original price?
A. Feet-to-fire, I’d bet that Musk settles for a $1.5 billion break up fee.
Q. Cody, What do you think of Skyworks Solutions?
A. It’s trading at about 10x my 5 years out profit estimates which isn’t bad — I just ran it through my spread sheet. It’s a great company but the 5% topline growth rate isn’t very exciting.
Q. Will there be a Revolution Related to a Response to Climate Change?
A. I’m afraid it might be a societal Revolution rather than a technological Revolution if we’re not careful. I don’t know.
Q. Cody, was my “America First” revolution suggestion too offensive?
A. I didn’t see that suggestion. The problem with calling it The America First Revolution is two fold — it’s got a bit of a political sound to it…but more importantly, the theme isn’t just about how our country is going to onshore and redomesticate its supply chains because it’s EVERY major economic nation/alliance is going to be doing this.
Q. Cody, I kmow you’re quite bearish on real estate right now, do you think rents will fall as well?
A. Yes. Rents will probably fall faster than landlords can handle, but not fast enough to make renters feel good about it.
Q. How do you recommend should I convert my 401K to Traditional IRA and buy stocks? I have a balance of $160K in 401K and it has an outstanding loan of $18K. The current market downturn loss of the investment in 401K is roughly 18% YTD. If I close the 401K then I can roughly translate it to $140K of Traditional IRA after paying off the loan. Other option I think is I preauthorize a monthly withdrawal of say $20K per month to Traditional IRA. Do you think I can go all out or I take slower withdrawals?
A. I think you should probably talk to a professional money advisor on that. It’s not my expertise…I have people who handle those details for me. I can connect you with a friend who can help if you’d like, but he does charge.
Q. When is QCOM (5G) going to really kick in to gear and benefit from 5 g you say it is in the 3rd inning ..what does this mean and what will the 6 inning look like ?
A. 5G might be 5th inning already. 6G is coming in a few years.
Q. What is your expectation for INTC earnings next week?
A. Frankly, in this environment, I’m like, “Please don’t blow it, INTC!” I actually think the report could be pretty good if they are taking any market share on laptops or anything. If not, they’ll miss by a bit, they’ll guide down by a bit and the stock will probably go down a bit.
Q. If INTC is taking any market share on laptops or anything….then I would hope they might actually guide up, no?
A. It’d blow people’s minds if they actually guided up.
Q. Question re biotech. I brought CRSP NTLA and EDIT as a basket of stocks that “owned” Crisper IP a few years ago. On looking to get back in to them after taking profits, I have instead turned to a very depressed ARKG ETF as my new exposure here as there are too many stocks to evaluate. Also by watching the top stocks in the ETF, I may add some individual stocks over time as well as any ideas you provide. Thoughts on ARKG?
A. Nice trade. I’d rather pick individual names most of the time, but in biotech I don’t mind using baskets. I’m not sure I’d want to bet on Cathy Wood’s expertise in biotech either tho.
Q. Would you buy Relativity Space at 5.1 billion valuation?
A. I invested in Relativity Space with the hedge fund back in the private markets like three years ago at a fraction of its current $4-5 billion valuation. I definitely like the CEO and the company but it might be a bit overvalued given the current climate of the market hating unprofitable high growth tech conceptual companies.
Q. Hi Cody, I know you have invested in Relativity Space for the hedge fund. How would you rate that investment vs RKLB? At what valuation do you think it would be at today?
A. Too tough to compare the two at this stage. If Relativity does succeed with its launches of its big ships in the next few months, it might turn out to be the better space investment. Based on the action of the publicly-traded space stocks, I’d think Relativity would be worth about half as much as it was at the top. So maybe $3ish billion right now? It’s a binary outcome kind of stock tho — it either works and goes up 10-100x from levels or it could end up a zero or it could get bought by a giant conglomerate along the way too.
Q. As we wait for a more detailed analysis on the new TWC “Spock Stock”, LLAP, could you in the meantime offer a few points as to why this one compelled you to dip a toe in vs. others?
A. Like the CEO, met him. It’s certainly still a risky space stock. Also, you’re on fire — Cody-Bat-Machine and now Spock Stock!
Q. Hey Cody, Mike Weimar here. Hope all’s well. I wanted to ask you again about ABCL. It’s up about 25% since I mentioned it to you about 3-4 months ago. I still think it has great potental given that it’s a drug discovery platform with partnerships with dozens of pharma companies and lots of molecules in various stages of discovery. Sales trends may look wonky since they had a quick hitter with Eli Lilly for Covid. If you’re not interested would love to know why as it seems both “revolutionary”.
A. Mike, why haven’t you been coming to the SKTLs Space Debris-Cleaning Cryptocurrency Volunteers meetings any more? We miss your input and help! Meanwhile, I think ABCL seems quite Revolutionary but I don’t understand the company’s numbers when I look at them at a glance. I’ll have to dig in further on this one and I will since it’s in one of the 3 themes I like. Do you have any sellside reports on it you can share?
Q. At what price would you be adding to ROK?
A. Added to it today. Will add to it slowly but surely for the next few days or weeks. Would buy a big tranche near $200 if I get the chance.
Q. Nice call stepping away from IONQ a couple months ago as it just seems to be churning around here from 4.5-5.5 ish. Still on the TWC radar?
A. Still on the radar, but it’s got to get some revenues growing at some point.
Q. What are your thoughts on Snap this morining? Oversold or are they headed down the path of bankruptcy?
A. Do I have to choose one or the other of “oversold or headed to BK”? Can’t I just say the stock doesn’t look good here but it doesn’t look like a zero either.
Q. What’s your outlook on Uber?
A. I am considering stepping back from UBER a bit, maybe trimming it down a bit at least. I’ve been in this name for a long time and it’s not made us a dime. It’s also not from my favorite three Revolutionary themes: Onshoring, Space, Biotech.
Q. Cody, it looks like robotaxis are in early stages of rolling out services in multiple cities. How does this color your view of Uber? Some robotaxi bulls think the business damages UBER and LYFT, long term.
A. I tend to think that UBER is the one company best positioned to benefit from robotaxis.
Q. What does the magical Cody-Bat-Computer say when you key CHPT into it?
A. “Cody-Bat-Computer” is a funny and clever name for my spreadsheet algorithms. Now help me with a better name for “The Redomestication Of The Supply Chain Revolution”, please. As for CHPT, I’m afraid my model, even making some optimistic assumptions, doesn’t show the company ever getting profitable in the next five years. Here’s a screenshot of the three stocks I ran through my algo’s today: /content/images/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/screen-shot-2022-07-22-at-12.23.01-pm.png
Q. Should I sell my small position of SPCE at a big loss or hold on?
A. You might consider taking the loss and getting it on the sheets for write off purposes and then you could buy it back in a month if you think you still want to own it. I’m pretty much out of it.
Have a great weekend.
