Markets, Apple, Google and the App Revolution redux
Markets a’ rocking and the ugly start to the year seems far in the rear-view mirror, just 1.75 trading days after it hit its lows. Off the races again? Or one more test towards DJIA 17k to come first? I’ve said the path of least resistance is likely range-bound around 17500 or so for the last month, but that “range” in the range-bound has sure been wide.
The $DJIA is up nearly 700 points from its Tuesday afternoon lows. We now have the answer to my question Monday: “Those whoosh downs last year were terrific buying opportunities…will the next whoosh down be another buying opp?”
The answer was yes the latest whoosh down was officially a terrific buying opportunity once again. Wish I’d done more.
I’m comfortable with my net long positioning and potential upside in my existing stock portfolio. I’d welcome the opportunity to tranche into more of my favorite long-term Revolution stocks in a panicky sell-off, but am in no rush.
Meanwhile, I continue to hold my favorite App Revolution investments and continue to employ my Revolution Investing playbook.
How many times did I tell people to invest for the coming App Revolution…back in 2010-2012 with lines like this:
“Hopefully you’re one of those people figuring out ways to invest in the app bubble now that the early adopters have worked through much of the bugs and the mainstream masses are just starting to get their first apps…right now in 2010, baby!”
Fast forward to 2015 and you are indeed living in the App Revolution in real-time now. Developers made $10bn from iOS apps in 2014 and investors have made hundreds of billions of dollars in the App Revolution, just as I’d laid out for you.
My favorite two stocks for the App Revolution, Google and Apple still have lots of long-term upside, but I wonder if 2015 could be a bit tough on them early on.
Remember when the markets were at all-time highs like every day in 2013 while $AAPL muddled along at the bottom and was making what seemed like endless new 52-week lows? I think $GOOG in 2015 might be similarly short-term depressed like $AAPL was in 2013, but that at some point it’ll make new all-time highs and head onto $1000/share by 2020 as I’ve long predicted.
I’m worried that there’s too much hype/expectations for the the Apple Watch to live up to for its first quarter or two. Earnings at Apple historically are pretty much impossible to game consistently from quarter to quarter, but yes, feet to fire, I’d expect a blowout but a big guide down into next quarter’s expectations as Apple is wont to do, especially when expectations get high like they are right now. Better to under promise how the Apple Watch will perform and then to blow it out in future quarters than to over promise what it will mean to your topline before you’ve even seen if it gets adopted as well as I and Apple expect it ultimately will.
What’s the next great Revolution? Wearables are a continuation of the App Revolution, and they are going to be even bigger than smartphones. So while I might be cautious about the broader markets for the near-term, I continue to stay all-systems go in the App Revolution.
