More On Immersed, RKLB, RIVN, And BLDE Earnings, And Much More

Here’s the transcript from today’s live Q&A chat. And don’t forget to follow us on X.com @TradingWithCody.

Q. Thank you for the update on Immersed and the opportunity. If we invested via WeFunder and Immersed does go public, do you know how we would be able to sell our shares after the lockup? Would we transfer them to our broker or sell on the WeFunder platform? Thank you.

A. Unfortunately, I don’t know for sure. This is the first time I’m going through the process of a crowdfunded investment trying to go public.

Q. What’s your “feet to fire” range for Immersed valuation in 1 year and 5 years? And thanks for the initial recommendation!

A. In 1 year I hope it’s near the valuation they get at the De-Spac-ing. In five years, I hope the revenues have gone up 100-fold and the company gets bought by Sony or Meta or someone for a few billion. Feet-to-fire, I’d say my valuation guess for five years from now is too hard because they are pivoting so hard to these new businesses and they are hopefully raising so much money they can execute to deliver on the CEO Renji’s vision.

Q. Will the Immersed SPAC trigger a taxable event?

A. I don’t think so until you sell it. But I’m not a tax accountant and again, this is the first time I’ve invested in a crowdfunding company that’s trying to de-SPAC.

Q. Re Immersed. If we buy in WeFunder, we are locked up for 6 months. But if we buy MAQC now at a market cap of $95 million we get the same stock at a cheaper valuation without any lock-up. Why not just buy MAQC stock? I understand there’s a risk the merger doesn’t go through, but if it does, MAQC stock seems like a better deal.

A. I think it’s just the risk that the SPAC doesn’t go through. Plus, the SPAC could expire if the deal doesn’t get done in time. It’s a good question though. I’ll ask Renji the CEO and see if he has a better answer.

Q. What percentage of cash are you holding in your personal account and how has that changed from the beginning of summer to now? Do you think it is still good time to keep raising cash? Thank you, as always!

A. In both my personal account and in the hedge fund I have more cash now than I did at the beginning of the summer. We raised more cash in the last couple weeks as noted in Trade Alerts and Chat discussions here and have plenty of short hedges on in the hedge fund right now.

Q. If Ukraine war ends and—Ukraine wins—besides airlines —what else would skyrocket?

A. Not sure that’s very likely any time soon but let me think about it. Maybe oil would tank? Maybe wheat prices would drop sharply? Maybe some of the weapons suppliers stocks would get hit hard? Maybe most stocks overall would pop 3-5% in the near-term if Ukraine wins the war?

Q. Thank you both for all your hard work and dedication to your craft. I hate to sound like I’m forgetting the space revolution (in its infancy for sure) but I’m trying to contemplate/brainstorm the next revolution. Have you had thoughts on it? I’m thinking climate change (not a new concept) but as tech (some optimism here) is able to cure/slightly undue etc some of the negative effects . . . Your thoughts?

A. Most climate change solutions seem government-forced and subsidized and funded and it’s hard for me to get too excited about those kinds of businesses. Climate change, whether man-made or not and certainly a partisan topic, will continue to have billions poured into it in the coming years and decades, mostly from taxpayers, I think.

Q. You mentioned you didn’t love the quarter from Intel and didn’t like the comments from their CEO. Can you please expand on what specifically you didn’t like and any general thoughts on INTC after their recent earnings report?

A. I’m confused as to why he’s so bullish about AI computing at the edge vs in the cloud. He was very bullish about how edge AI would be as big as cloud AI but I think the best AI will probably have to be done in the cloud where a network of the best AI chips from Nvidia et al will work in tandem rather than one chip in your PC or phone. I still like INTC and how it’s a bet on the company/Gelsinger the CEO betting the entire company on becoming a major third-party semi fab builder but we’ve had a big bounce off the lows and I’m pulling in my bull horns on it just a bit for now.

Q. Thanks for your hard work and good guidance! Please let us know how you have or will handle the Aug INTC calls.

A. We’ve sold quite a few of our INTC calls and are mostly holding common right now.

Q. We also had Robinhood earnings last week and the stock has pulled back quite a bit in a few day span. Can you please give a review of their latest earnings and any key takeaways?

A. Strong report across the board. We had a call with the Robinhood investor relations team earlier this week and were very impressed with the discussion and the long-term strategy they talked about. We’ll probably have a call with Vlad the CEO sometime in the next few weeks. We have bought a little more HOOD on the pullback and would buy more a bit more aggressively if it pulls back another 10-15%.

Q. @SamG: yup monitor the email and start nibbling on anything that is mentioned by Bryce and Cody. For example, they mentioned HOOD yesterday in the chat. So I bought a few more HOOD stock. Most everything that is done here is long-term investments. Any short-term investment such as options or shorts should probably be ignored, unless you really understand how those instrument work.

A. Good advice.

Q. Rivian seemed to post a positive quarter and upped their guidance for production for the rest of the year. Stock got pounded on Wednesday. For someone looking to add Rivian, would you be supportive of buying another tranche here? Looking to slowly build this position.

A. I can think of worse ideas than nibbling on some more RIVN if you want to own more but I am not buying back any shares we trimmed just yet. Maybe near $20 or below I’ll start buying some back. Sitting tight for now. Was a great quarter, great guidance, good execution. They are burning SOOO much cash each day, each month, each quarter still though.

Q. Since RKLB is one of our largest positions, would very much like to hear your thoughts on their latest earnings report and their execution. Loved to see the new contracts they added/announced.

A. Yes, it was a good quarter, nice execution and continued growth and yes, the new contractions that announced are verification of how I’ve been saying that there’s much more demand for launches than there is supply of launch services.

Q. Anyone care to explain this drop in RKLB.

A. The stock has had a huge rally from the lows a few weeks ago and was due for a pullback as many small-cap stocks were. The company is not yet profitable but is executing very well on its way to becoming profitable in the next two years.

Q. Rocket Lab had a pretty good ER and 10 new launch deals (5 with BKSY) and nice updates on Neutron. Why is the stock so hated lately? It’s like good news, stock price down.

A. See prior answer, please.

Q. Market doesn’t seem to like BLDE report this AM. Any thoughts on what they don’t like? Are you adding to your position at this level?

A. The report looked pretty great to us, as revenues were up stronger than expected and so were margins. We updated our chart after the call and the Price/Profit 5 years out dropped to around 5 from where it had been 7 before. We did nibble a little more when it dropped after the report and would buy more if it drops another 10-20%.

Q. Thank you for the write up on Blade! Love the detail and summary of the in person experience you and Bryce had. Does the earnings report Wednesday morning change anything for us? Does it give us an opportunity to build the position at lower levels or were there items of concern for you from the earnings report?

A. See prior not about this. Yes, we bought more after the call. For the record, there are always items of concern from every company earnings report! LOL.

Q. Please give me your take on the BLDE earnings report and your forecast and expectations with the Immersed announcement of going public on the Nasdaq. Thank you!

A. Please see prior answers.

Q. Lastly, you noted last week that subscribers here weren’t worried about a market pullback when asking about potential purchases. Throughout the year, I’ve been riding our longs but at the same time kept a good amount of cash and laddered some US Treasury bills in my portfolio so I can buy on any expected weakness. With the NASDAQ pulling back since our last chat, are there any potential buys that stick out to you? RIVN? TSLA? HOOD? ROK? UBER?

A. We nibbled a little more HOOD and BLDE after their reports but we haven’t been buying much else just yet. We have a new very small cap name that we’ve been hard at work on for a while so stay tuned for that. I’ll do a Where I’d Buy More Of Each Of Our Positions tonight and will send it out tomorrow.

Q. Any timeline on the TSEM deal getting approval?

A. Could be any day now that the Chinese regulators either approve or don’t approve of INTC buying TSEM. TSEM could be down 10% or more if the deal isn’t approved but should pop to around $50+ if it is approved.

Q. After falling through 185, when would SEDG get your nibbly-interest again?

A. Yes, we bought a TINY bit of SEDG this week. Might buy more another 10% lower.

Q. Any thoughts on Axcelis Technologies (ACLS)?

A. Good company selling into the Semiconductor Onshoring Revolution and seeing nice 20% growth this year because of that. That growth might slow to half that next year. The stock is trading at 22x next year’s earnings estimates which isn’t bad.

Q. I have been in INDI for a couple of years now. I was ready to get rid of it but somebody on the chat asked about them recently and you said it was “an interesting company for sure”. I think you said you were going to look into it a bit more. Thoughts on them?

A. We like the company and looked at the stock today since it is down about 15-20% from its highs. They’ve got some good semis for EVs but probably too expensive and with general weakness in semis, probably get a chance to buy lower.

Q. Your latest take on WBD?

A. Anecdotally, we are sick of trying to navigate and paying for all the various streaming services at our house and we don’t have Warner Brother Discovery’s MAX any more. I’m worried that streaming services are going to struggle to grow for the next few months or even years. WBD has too much debt too.

Q. Do you have any thoughts on ENVX? I believe they are doing a $1B shelf offering. They have big investors like TJ Rodgers and John Doerr, Also, they recently received a contract from the US Army. Thank you.

A. It feels like there’s this strange cult-like atmosphere around ENVX on fintwit. Greg Reyes, the former CEO of Brocade, seems to be threatening EVNX shorts with doxing and worse. It’s weird and frankly, a red flag. We had a call with Enovix’s IR people a few weeks ago and it was a good call but we are not investors in it right now.

Q. Any thoughts on BlackLine (BL)?

A. It’s amazing how many payment/finance software companies there are! “BlackLine, Inc. provides cloud-based solutions to automate and streamline accounting and finance operations worldwide. It offers financial close management solutions, such as account reconciliations that provides a centralized workspace for users to collaborate on account reconciliations; transaction matching that analyzes and reconciles high volumes of individual transactions; and task management to create and manage processes and task lists. The company’s financial close management solutions also include journal entry that allows users to generate, review, and post manual journal entries; variance analysis that monitors and identifies anomalous fluctuations in balance sheet and income statement account balances; consolidation integrity manager that manages the automated system-to-system tie-out process that occurs during the consolidation phase of the financial close; and compliance, an integrated solution that facilitates compliance-related initiatives, consolidates project management, and provides visibility over control self-assessments and testing. In addition, it offers accounts receivable automation solutions, which include blackline cash application, credit and risk management, collections management, disputes and deductions, team and task management, and AR intelligence solutions. Further, the company provides intercompany create functionality that stores permissions and business logic exceptions by entity, service, and transaction type thereby ensuring both the seller and the buyer of the intercompany transaction are authorized to conduct business; intercompany processing, which records an organization’s intercompany transactions; and netting and settlement that generates a real-time settlement matrix, which shows the balance of transactions. The company sells its solutions primarily through direct sales force to multinational corporations, large domestic enterprises, and mid-market companies across various industries. BlackLine, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Woodland Hills, California.” Also, that is one helluva long company profile. Growing at 10%+ per year and trading at 30x next year’s earnings, the stock seems a bit expensive but not crazily so.

Q. Your thoughts on PLTR, PYPL, and CRSP, please?

A. We can’t decide whether we love Palantir as an AI stock or if it’s simply a consultancy masquerading as an AI stock. Paypal is entrenched and not going anywhere but Apple Pay and the millions of other payment solutions out there are killing its growth. CRSP is an interesting and leading CRSPR company that I’ve owned before but don’t own right now. It’s far from profitable but it’s on my radar.

Q. If the AI bubble is poppimg—where should we buy puts? CVNA and AI –good idea to buy puts?

A. I’ve still got AI puts in the hedge fund but we got squeezed out of our CVNA short and are not in it right now. I still think both are headed much lower over time. I’ll let you know if/when we short some more AI-related names.

Q. Are you still shorting CVNA? If so, at what price will you exit? Is it a good time to re-load some ORGN. Many thanks! Best to Amaris and your family!

A. Got squeezed out of Carvana and am embarrassed to say so. I still think it’s doomed and might re-short it at some point. We looked at ORGN on its getting slammed this week but the reason it got slammed is because it’s not sure when it will get its products to market any more. So we stayed away from it.

Q. I am new. I am seeing updates correctly that last one was early July and last update on positions also months ago. Is it best to watch chat or how do I know what the recommendations are?

A. We are working on updating the whole TradingWithCody.com site right now and this will get fixed. You do get an email from us every time we publish anything on TradingWithCody.com with the entire write up sent to you in email form. Thanks for subscribing!

Whoo, that was a lot! Thanks, all. That’s a wrap. I leave you all with two pictures from the last two sunsets from my front porch.