No Easy Answers When Globalization As We Know It Ends
First, I want to recognize the pain and suffering of the people of Ukraine and the threat to people near there. There is real human suffering happening and I pray it soon ends.
My job is to analyze and help us navigate these things though. So…
As a good friend of my just texted me as I was typing this: “This is the end of globalization as we know it.”
I don’t have the perfect playbook for when a major nuclear power violently invades a country that’s recognized by the West. I’ve seen a few traders ready to pounce and buy this morning but as I wrote earlier this week, I don’t think that’s the right risk/reward move right now. I’m going to mostly sit back and let the next few days play out as they will. I might do a little trading, both long and short in the hedge fund, but I don’t plan on making any big moves just yet.
Maybe the markets do put in a bottom here but this is a major change in the economic and the geopolitical paradigm that we have been living under for the last fifty years or so. I’m going to be patient here as my brain tries to work though what it all means for our individual stocks over time. Maybe this all blows over? For years, I’ve mostly ignored geopolitical events and used the moves that they create in the markets to our advantage. But as I said earlier this week, this isn’t like anything else we’ve ever seen.
I’m sorry I don’t have a crystal ball or that I don’t have better, easier ways to protect and/or make money on what’s happening. As always, all I can do is be open and honest with you all. Be careful. Send good vibes/pray, be empathetic and be careful right now. We’re headed out to Austin for Amaris’ physical therapy, driving many miles across this peaceful, blessed land.
Peace.
