Notes and analysis from NYC
I was in NYC for three days and met with many of my old contacts, friends, colleagues and several people who wanted to talk about their businesses and mine. I stopped by and had my sesame seed bagel with cream cheese, large coffee with milk and a bottle of fresh squeezed orange juice at the same place I used to get it on my way to Fox back a few years ago. I had pizza in Brooklyn under the Brooklyn bridge, drank a beer or two, had a lot of sushi, and other great food. I met with executives and big shots from news companies, tech companies, TV companies, PR companies, professional sports representatives, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and I guess I got a lot done while I was in my old town.
I’m back in rural NM again and I’ve got a lot of analysis, ideas, commentary and other stuff I learned to share with you in coming days. Here’s a sample for now.
Economy – Corporate spending, ad spending, corporate strategies, and the financial markets for such things remains very strong. Lots of access to capital, lots of planning for growth and not a single discussion of “pulling back” or any gloom in the corporate and financial market worlds.
Tech – Private start ups on the other hand are pulling back a bit and there’s concern about valuations and cash burn. I’d expect to see a pick up in mergers and acquisitions of venture-backed private companies.
Retail – Amazon’s killing everyone else. Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, Wal-Mart and other retailers are struggling and trying to cut costs even further and figure out new strategies to deal with the Amazon monster. Even the other online retailers from Etsy to Zulilly to eBay are finding it hard to compete with Amazon’s de fact standard status.
Twitter – It was almost strange how pretty much everybody I spoke to, no matter what sector or job they have, owns $TWTR and thinks its a great franchise that’s undervalued by Wall Street. As a contrarian, I’d rather have them telling me I’m nuts for owning Twitter stock.Nobody seems concerned about the CEO and other executive turnover going on at Twitter. Is Twitter the next Yahoo, where the company hit critical mass and then got lost with no leadership over the years? There’s more analysis, homework and decision making to do for our Twitter position.
No trades for me so far today, but with stocks in big rally mode this week and the indices having their best week of the year, I’d like to remind you once again to sell/trim while you can, not when you have to. If you were stressed and struggling with what to do with your positions back in August and September or even last week when stocks were down, now is the time to trim back some of your longs. We are trying to maximize the returns and minimize the risks of your portfolio over the next 10,000 days and with that kind of a viewpoint, you realize you don’t have to be overly long or aggressive right now. When I look at my own Latest Positions and knowing that I’ve been doing some trimming again recently after having been buying more when the markets were tanked a couple months ago, I’m comfortable with my own positioning. And if you’re not, then make some changes today while you can, not later when you have to.
I’ll update the Revolution Ratings for all of our stocks and do a Latest Positions update over the weekend so stay tuned for that.
