Reasons why you shouldn’t start trading bitcoin or invest in any “hot” ICOs
“Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them.” – Jesse Livermore
Here’s a tip for you. Buy some patience. Invest in discipline. Don’t be greedy.
Oh, a stock tip? Well, I am indeed putting the finishing touches on all the analysis behind a Trade Alert on a new name I’ll start buying this week. Like our recent nibble of Intel, it’s another household name that will probably surprise you as a Revolution Investment opportunity. But being patient and disciplined is always a good tip!
But today I want to talk about bitcoin one more time. Everybody knows the old saying by Wayne Gretzky about skating to where the puck is going. I found another great quote by him when I was thinking about all these people taking risks on bitcoins and ICOs right now.
“I’m not a big risk-taker. I don’t know anything about the stock market… I stay away from things I don’t know anything about.” -Wayne Gretzky
So here’s my Public Service Announcement for you dear subscribers today: If you are thinking of starting to trade cryptocurrencies please make sure you know what a crytocurrency is. If you are thinking of getting in that “hot ICO (Initial Coin Offering)” make sure you understand how an IPO (Initial Public Offering) works. If you don’t know what blockchain is, just stop. If your computer tech is telling you it’s easy to make money trading Ethereum, Litecoin, bitcoin and that you’re an idiot for not getting in — get a new computer tech.
I am telling you this as someone who bought Bitcoins and invested in blockchain years ago before you had heard of it. Now I’m selling bitcoins and warning people to stop, catch their breath and know that THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO MAKE MONEY TRADING OR INVESTING IN ANYTHING. You might make money for a while, you might think you’ve got it figure it out — but you will get cold. You will lose money trading cryptocurrencies at some point.
Four YEARS ago, I wrote this:
Everything You Need to Know About Bitcoin
November 12, 2013
“I actually could picture BitCoins going up another 10-fold versus the dollar if all those BitCoin investment businesses and systems get approval and go mainstream. As I have made clear, am long BitCoins and I feel a bit nutty even admitting that much. On the other hand, it makes me sad that I know lots of middle class folks here in my hometown who speculated on Iraqi dinars but NOBODY here has caught this huge move from $BITCOIN speculation. Sigh.”
Four DAYS ago, I wrote this:
The next great bubble, 4 favorite stocks right now, bitcoin sellers and more
September 20, 2017
“I don’t get the sense that anyone is selling their bitcoins. I only know people who are buying bitcoins, now that you ask. Early bitcoin advocates are doing victory laps and trying to convince people what geniuses they are and why bitcoin’s supposed to still go higher and that you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
So that’s another reason why I’m so bearish on bitcoin, if not calling a top on it at least. I just think the risk reward at this particular level at this particular time is terrible.”
Three and a half YEARS ago, I wrote this:
The three kinds of bitcoin peopleFebruary 20, 2014 by Cody Willard“I was shocked when during my presentation at the NYC Trader’s Expo, I asked the crowd if any of them had ever bought or owned any bitcoins.None had ever bought a bitcoin, though several of them raised their hands when I asked if they’d even considered buying a bitcoin or two at some point. I would have thought that at least a few of the people here at a MoneyShow Trader’s Expo where you’ve got presentations and booths that try to help people learn to trade forex currencies and precious metals like gold … that at least a few people would have been speculating on the bitcoin frenzy. Alas, even though $BTC is often the top most-trending ticker on Scutify, bitcoin wasn’t even a side note at the event, which means it still has a long ways to go in becoming a mainstream currency or even as a mainstream speculation vehicle.”Three and a half WEEKS ago, I wrote this:San Fran Takeaways and Bubbly Bitcoin Euphoria offers bad risk/reward
August 30, 2017
“Finally, going back to the San Francisco trip, the vibe at the money show was, as I feared, a lot of bubbly euphoria, high-fiving amongst the people who have been trading Bitcoin and blockchain currencies for the last few months. It quite frankly reminded me of two years ago when I spoke at the San Francisco money show and the biotech stocks were all through the roof. The IBB Was at like 450 or 500, I don’t even remember. I mean it was through the roof and everybody at the conference was giddy and high-fiving about biotech. The traders were all looking at the charts of the IBB and all of the biotech stock and talking about how bullish they looked. I of course ruffled a bunch of feathers by getting up there and saying, ‘Hey, don’t buy biotech right now. This is as good as it gets.’
That’s a little bit of what it felt like on Bitcoin. Longer term again. I like blockchain and Bitcoin both as alternative currencies. I like the concept. I always have. But I don’t think now is the time to buy Bitcoin. We’ll have lots of opportunity and lots of pitches to invest in blockchain and Bitcoin coming in the next 2 to 3 to five years. Stick with Trading With Cody if you want to know the best ways to do it as they become public; as the opportunities arise.”
Do you see the difference between then and now? The difference between when the time that bitcoin was undiscovered and even embarrassing to own and now that bitcoin has been widely discovered and somebody you know is trading bitcoin and/or other cryptocurrencies? I’m not calling an outright “Top” right now in bitcoin.
Indeed, my best feet-to-fire guess for bitcoin is that it could still double from here, or maybe even sneak through $10,000 on a blow off top before the long slow road to washing out pretty much all of the speculators/daytraders/computer techs/newbies and becoming a stable alternative currency for the long-term.
I’ll wrap up this article today with another quote about risk.
“With love, you should go ahead and take the risk of getting hurt because love is an amazing feeling.” -Britney Spears
Love ain’t money and vice versa, so I suggest not taking the risk right now.
