See the future
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My mom once was asked me, when I was running my hedge fund, writing for the Financial Times and appearing almost nightly on CNBC’s Kudlow & Company, “Cody, why are you pushing it so hard, aren’t you already succeeding?” I told her that I saw such huge opportunities laying out in front of me and my career that I had no choice but to push hard. Mom kept pushing on me — she knew I wanted to move home back to rural NM from NYC at some point. I told her I could literally see the future, my future playing out with me closing my hedge fund near the top of the market after having literally launched at the bottom back in October 2002, and getting my own TV show — if I’d just keep pushing hard.
After living a life in NYC for fifteen years, managing money and eventually hosting my own TV show on Fox Business, I wanted to slow down a little bit and moved back to rural NM. But in the last year, I’ve gotten married, had a beautiful baby girl, and have continued writing daily for TradingWithCody.com, several times a week for my blog on Marketwatch, once weekly for the Revolution Investing newsletter, and acquired and raised money for Scutify. My Scutify website and apps (click here to download the Scutify Android app or click here for the Scutify iPhone app) have now had a huge running start and are seeing the positive feedback loops of garnering ever more users which brings ever more contributors, which brings ever more users. And Scutify has already innovated the ability to let users literally “follow” stocks, and not just other users. And why the headache of having to deal with the old Twitter 140 character limit? We did away with it at Scutify in the Scuttles section.
Here’s the Scutify $TWTR feed for example.
I’m still pushing it hard because I’m still picturing much more success for me and my investors and my readers and my followers and fans in the future.
Part of that future, I do expect, is more of the ongoing App Revolution and bubble-blowing bull market, that we’ve been positioned for since near the bottom when I wrote, Don’t Panic Now That We’re Here.
I didn’t realize it at the time of course, but just about five years ago, in March 2009, I just about nailed the bottom when I turned from bearish to bullish in that article as I explained:
“As I proposed to Ron Paul, Peter Schiff and Judge Napolitano on Fox News’ Strategy Room yesterday — we might want to consider the idea that all these trillions of worthless dollars that the government is injecting into the economy might actually provide some fleeting, temporary, illusory cushion of economic activity.”
So fast forward to today, it’s more of the same, no? Whether or not the Fed continues to taper a few tens of billions of dollars here and there in their outright QE, nothing much has really changed in regards to all those trillions of dollars that the government is continuing to inject into the economy annually. Which is a large part of why I continue to ride my long-held Google $GOOG, Apple $AAPL , Sandisk $SNDK, Facebook $FB and other tech stocks positioned to boom. (Speaking of Facebook, tomorrow’s analysis will be all about why I own Facebook and not Twitter.
That said, let’s step back for today’s Trader’s Deep Thought of the Day – $DJIA is up exactly two and a half times from when I wrote that column. For it to have the same return over the next five years, $DJIA would be at 40,000.
I expect to have sold most of my stocks down once again at some point in the next few years. And I expect to sell out of Scutify at some point before this bubble pops too, if all goes right. But in the meantime, let’s keeping pushing hard, eh?
Speaking of which, in regards to this ongoing market decline, it’s going about according to my waiting-for-more-fear playbook as outlined recently:
“Feet to fire, I would guess that late January or early February brings out some panic selling over who-knows-what and you’ll get your 5%-10% pullback. And think about this right now — it WILL NOT be easy to buy into the next panic sell off.”
I think it’s still a bit too easy to buy into the current sell-off here today. Do you know anybody scared much less panicking here? Most bulls and the average money manager seem to be quite complacent still, especially after last year’s huge returns. I remain heavier in cash than I’ve been in a while but am in no rush to put that money back to work in the stock market just yet. As always, if you are looking to buy into the market, I’d suggest starting with a small tranche first and then being patient.
Pushing it doesn’t mean rushing it. Follow me @CodyWillard on Scutify.
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Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for MarketWatch, posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com and is the largest shareholder in Scutify‘s parent company, Wall Street All-Stars. At time of publication, Cody was net long Apple, Sandisk, Google and Facebook.
