Questions and Answers from Today’s Chat

Last week you said we were going to scale into some of our RVBD calls. I am waiting for an update on when we are going to buy some. Today the stock tanked again by 9% in the morning and looks like its recovering a bit. Is this the right time to buy some long term calls? On the other hand, while looking at the charts for this stock for 2 years, the stock has been up from $15 in July 2010 to $30 now even after taking a hit after earnings. Looks like a topping pattern to me.

Regarding RVBD — today’s big hit is because of Juniper’s ugly guidance and commentary. I’m looking three to four years out and I think RVBD will be much higher. Not a rush right now though, recall that I’d sold my common down and kept some of the higher priced calls and that’s helped stop me out at higher levels than these.

Why do you like RVBD so much?

I’ve written so many pieces about how RVBD’s technology is being built into all kinds of corporate networks to help them run iPhones/Tablets, etc. It’s the future and they are a key piece of it.

With QE2 ended, and QE3 nowhere in sight, what is the catalyst for the market continuing its run? The job and housing situation are deteriorating, and inflation in commodities and food is rampant.

Why do you think QE2 was the catalyst for the last big rally? It was “only” $600BB when the stealth bailouts and extend-pretend banking balance sheet policies are worth more than $10TT. I don’t think QE3 will matter much either. I think the bubble can’t be stopped any more.

What would it take for you be muscle up on your AAPL position (still way down your list)?

I’m kicking myself — EVERY morning — for not having bought AAPL calls when I was buying GOOG calls. I did buy common at those recent lows and have got great gains in it anyway, but I blew it. Mea culpa. I won’t know what will make me get more aggressive in it next until the pitches come.

Great work lately! What are your thoughts on LEAPS on AAPL and GOOG, say Jan 2013? If you like them any strike price in particular?

I own some GOOG leaps and wish I had bought AAPL leaps at the same time. I do plan on trading/owning more GOOG and AAPL calls in coming months, quarters, years.

CY is down 20%. still bleeding. I sold most of my position last friday. At what point would you get back in?

I like CY a lot and will be buying more at some point in coming weeks and months. I like it at on this sell off and I did just trim a little so when I get back from vacation next week, we’ll see what CY looks like then.

New member here. Looking to build a position in RVBD or CY based on current stock prices which of the two do you like best for a newbee getting ready to jump in?

Thanks for signing up! I can’t really pick any individual stock out for any individual person — newbie or otherwise…Sorry. But what I can tell you is that I do plan and will be buying/scaling/trading both CY and RVBD in coming days and weeks and I’ll be telling you what I’m doing as I’m doing it. It’s impossible for me to go back now and try to imagine myself in somebody else’s shoes. Hope that helps.

Do you know anything about VHC, VirtnetX, (4G and LTE security) and if so, are you going to do anything in the name?

I don’t know VHC but as my first boss on Wall Street trained me to answer such a question: “I don’t know but I’ll find out.” That is, I’ll check VHC out and if I dig it, will write it up at some point.

With the market stalling at usual in the summer months, do you believe the next move is up or down?

Feet to fire, I’d guess that the market’s probably got 2-5% downside vs. 1-2% upside in the next week or two and then we’ll be back off to the races somewhere starting the second week of August or so and we’ll have a 5-10% upside vs 1-2% downside range at that point. But then again, I don’t day trade or try to time the markets with such precision for a reason, you know?

If you had to choice your top 3 stocks over the next 6-12 months, which ones would they be?

My top 3 stocks over the next 6-12 months? Oh, man, if only it were that easy! I work my butt off every day to stay on top of this stuff. I can’t pick just three and say that’s them!

The question I have pertains to Citrix and their earnings release after hours today. VmWare had a nice surprise, do you think Citrix will report similar? Thanks.

Glad you caught the pop with me! I like Citrix the company a lot and I do think the report will be very good, but so do most of the reports I’ve been reading from the sellside. So I don’t think there’s much of an advantage at least for me heading into the call tonight.

Some people may begin to see a H-C-H in the indices, this might scare. You see this possible? could be another buying opportunity….

I assume H-C-H is a charting pattern? I don’t do charts per se. Sorry.

If US debt gets a downgrade some time in Aug/Sept, what impact do you see on tech stocks in the following days + weeks? How soon would we bounce back?

The US debt won’t be downgraded. The whole US debt emergency is a sham. Did you know that 1/3 of Reid’s bill is dedicated to creating new broadcast laws? The Boehner bill is just as corrupt. Don’t get distracted by their propaganda.

Why should we keep CSCO in our portfolio over the next 3 months?

I’m keeping Cisco in my portfolio because everybody I know asks me every day, “Why would I keep Cisco in my portfolio? I mean WHY?” Despite the fact it’s cheap as it’s ever been and still growing nicely.

I’m starting to like the Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 calls in MRVL, after some Kinect sales number start coming in. Do you agree or how would you play MRVL at this point?

I plan on buying some Marvell calls when I get back next week before their next earnings report which is in a couple weeks. Let you know which ones when and if I pull the trigger. And yes, I’m the only one who’s out there saying that Kinect’s gonna drive upside this quarter and I’ve not seen that in a single sellside report which makes me more confident I’ve got a near-term trading advantage. Could be wrong though.

Hey Cody, great work. Do have any ideas on battery technology and the metal Vanadium being used in mobile devices?

I’ve tried to borrow and short AONE, a battery maker that I do believe uses that Vanadium stuff. The top-down analysis on battery technology is that it seems to me to be way too dependent upon targeted tax subsidies and welfare in order to be viable in the market place at all. Which is an oxymoronic statement. And trying to invest in straight up growth markets like the App/Smartphone/Tablet Revolution is hard enough. I don’t want to bet on alternative energy while the government’s that involved in capitalizing the industry.

Do you believe, like James Altucher (today’s article), that GOOG is going to $1500 over the next 12 months? That GOOGLE+ will be as valuable as Facebook by end 2012?

Altucher’s one of my very best friends and long-time mentors. But I predicted Google $2000 months ago and if I didn’t know better, I’d think he was trying to ride Cody’s coattails. Just kidding about him riding my coattails — he’s the man. But I’m not kidding that I think Google gets to $2000 by 2020 as I’ve written many times before. Google it!

I unfortunately came late to your tech party. Which stocks in your portfolio are at or near buying points now?

Regarding which stocks are “at or near buying prices.” Again, I can only tell you what I’m doing it when I’m doing it and that I’d be selling all of these stocks if I didn’t think they were going higher over time.

I took lot of loss in GLW calls and common. Do I still keep it or shud I sell now and buy at low again? Hope this question helps other people too.

I’m sorry to hear about the GLW loss. That stock has gone almost straight down since I added it, and I’m as frustrated about that one as any I’ve been in a long time. I am holding the now-even-farther out-of-the-money calls I’d been buying when the stock was higher. If I try to catch a bottom on this one with new purchases, I’ll let you guys know. Dang it, Corning!

CHK (Chesepeake Energy): buy or sell into report?

I’ve not ready any sellside reports or talked to anybody about CHK at all, so I’ve got no advantage or even an opinion on that one heading into the call tonight. Good luck though! (Knocking on wood for you.)

Still think RIMM and SLV is a good short? And is ADTN coming back?

“RIMM is dead.” “RIMM is still dead.” “Really, RIMM is really still dead.” I’ve actually written articles with each of those titles as RIMM has fallen from $80 to the $20s. I don’t think it’s a great short any more though. Just too cheap. Not a buy either. But not a short anymore. And yeah, I’m still short some SLV after having locked in some profits when it was near its lows, but I’ve been letting this rally play itself out before trying to build the SLV back up.

What do you think about NVDA after they lost on the Apple Mac book. The stock has taken a beating in the last 6 months?

NVDA’s one of the best trading, most volatile tech stocks you can ever find. I think if the company is great and I’d love to catch it on the right cycle next time, but I’m not pulling any triggers on it right now.

All right guys, that’s it. Thank you so much for all the great questions and dialogue and for all the kind words! And if you are enjoying and profiting from your TradingwithCody.com subscription, please be sure to tell your friends and help us spread the word. We’ll give you a $99 rebate for each and everyone one of your friends who signs up. Word-of-mouth is the survival key for any business. Thanks, in advance and I’ll see you all back here on Monday morning after I get back from some much needed R&R. And I’ll see you back here in the chat next Wednesday at 2pm EST.