SEC Crypto Lawsuits, The Mega Cap Rally, AAPL’s Vision Pro, BKSY, RKLB, And Much More

Here’s the transcript from today’s live Q&A chat. Also, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @TradingWithCody.

Q. Is your blow-over-the-top alert still valid and will we see few more market upswings? Do you recommend selling all the portfolio and waiting for the downturn (even a 10%) down from here?

A. I do think the upside in many of our “Forever Positions” that are at all-time/52-week highs like AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, META is probably a bit capped for a while. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them at about these same market caps two or three years from now. But I certainly don’t recommend selling everything and trying to time a 10% move in the broader markets.

Q. Can you please provide your thoughts on the SEC’s investigation into Binance and Bitcoin’s subsequent pullback? Is this a buying opportunity for Bitcoin or a longer term concern for crypto? Or both?

A. I like Bitcoin on any weakness here and we bought some BITO for the hedge fund this week below $15. I think Coinbase and Binance knowingly broke the law and have been allowing unregistered securities to trade and should be prosecuted. I am long some COIN puts as I’ve noted lately.

Q. Doesn’t it feel like this mega tech rally is overdone? Feels like we’ll get better buying opportunities in some of these names later this year.

A. Yes, I agree. The megacap techs feel about as crowded as energy stocks did last year.

Q. The other side of the mega tech rally is Intel. Stock price is still down from where we first initially bought it (although bought more in the mid to high 20’s). Doesn’t it feel like Intel has its act together now? The positive words from NVDA CEO was encouraging. Should we be adding to this name?

A. I do think INTC has righted its ship but we will need to see more fundamental progress in coming months/quarters to confirm. I have been a buyer of INTC whenever it hits new lows but am just sitting tight on it for now.

Q. Can you please provide your thoughts on the new Apple VisionPro? Does this change the thesis on Apple stock? I know it’s a forever position but do you see significant upside from here? What does this mean for META and the Metaverse as a whole?

A. I think the Apple Vision Pro is a promising first step for Apple’s AR/VR future and what you can see/do inside of that headset is going to be amazing. But I think they should have waited until they have the battery situation figured out better than having a dongle hanging off your head connected to your belt. I don’t think there’s any way that this product can go mainstream with a cord hanging off it. You can’t expect people to wear a headset with a cord hanging off it that can easily get caught on door knobs or desk drawers or your kid walking by. It’s not mobile.

Q. My takeaway from the Vision Pro event, was really about spatial computing… I can totally see that revolutionizing how we work and or learn. I’m not sure the Vision Pro is the best way to bring that about (it will no doubt improve) but… thoughts on spatial computing in general as a revolution?

A. I’ve been onboard with spatial computing since the first time I tried out Immersed’s app on the Occulus years ago. It’s going to be another 5 years or more before the headsets are cheap enough and dongle-less enough to go mainstream though.

Q. At what level would your HF start buying AAPL?

A. Probably 10-15% lower than current quotes. It’s just that there are probably other stocks that have much more upside potential for the next 3-5 years, IMHO.

Q. Talking about Apple. Does the partnership with U give U a bit of a floor here? Obviously they need to execute but partnership gives them a bit more legitimacy, no?

A. I don’t think Unity’s problem is legitimacy. Their game creation platform is incredible but their stupid acquisition of an ad business a few years ago has them distracted and is not working out for them the way the platform business is.

Q. Anyone else still holding MP options?

A. We have a pretty good sized position in MP common and it is the type of stock that can run from $22 to $30 in a week if it ever gets any momentum going. I don’t think we can time the move well enough to use options but I could see buying some July or August $25 calls at some point.

Q. BlackSky stock performance has been encouraging over the last week or two. Anything specific driving that? New contract?

A. I don’t know of any new contracts at BKSY. Many speculative small caps have made big moves lately and anticipation of that was what made me start building positions in this name and PL and others earlier this year when they were hitting new lows.

Q. I have been reading about the Senate vote on Julie Lu as Labor Sec. should we be worried about that and Gig workers at Uber ?

A. Julie Lu is just another Republican Democrat Corporatist who does what her bosses (the giant corporations and giant banks) tell her to. I’m not expecting her to shake anything up.

Q. Your thoughts on buying INTC and RKLB at current prices?

A. I can think of worse ideas. I was a buyer of each at lower prices and am still in them obviously.

Q. I just met with Hayden Brown at Upwork and it sure wasn’t very encouraging

A. Can you elaborate? I read a transcript of his appearance at a brokerage firm conference earlier this week and I thought it sounded encouraging.

Q. Thank you for your unique perspectives on investments that have done exceptionally well that I’m sure I never would have bought based on my own research. If you didn’t own any AMZN or GOOG right now, would you buy some today or wait for a significant pullback in both?

A. If you don’t own any, I might dip a toe in to get started but I’d give some time and space before loading up and making them big positions.

Q. $NVDA: at what level would you consider nibbling NVDA again?

A. I’m still just holding it in my personal account. I’d probably buy some NVDA for the hedge fund again at $700 billion market cap or so although I’m obviously not sure it’ll get there. That’s about 20% lower than today’s quote.

Q. Have you guys looked at AEHR at all? Kind of a pick-and-shovel play to semis sort of.

A. Don’t know it, but will take a look and let everybody know if we like what we find.

Q. I believe you were in IONQ for a bit. Has made a nice run recently. Legit or just another company in the AI “bubble”?

A. We’ll dig back in. I haven’t looked at it in months.

Q. Could you take a look at MRVL? Does the valuation look justified by its fundamentals? What’s your take on its position in the AI revolution? Thanks.

A. I don’t think Marvell’s going to be a main AI beneficiary but we are doing some work on it to understand why they think they will be better.

Q. Is IWM a short here?

A. We own some puts on the VTWO (which is the same thing as the IWM, as both represent the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index) and nibbled on some yesterday for the hedge fund. Gaming an index of 2000 stocks isn’t easy though.

Q. Can you please comment on our shorts VSAT, LAD, BX, and CVNA. It seems like they have been rallying and haven’t been great hedges against our newer long positions which have been down. Do we have a stop loss in place or should we be adding? Thank you.

A. We covered BX but still have some VSAT, LAD and CVNA puts. VSAT hasn’t done much but LAD and CVNA have rallied bit but they are hedges for our outsized TSLA long (and our smaller RIVN long) both of which have also rallied, especially TSLA. We might have to cover and move on from both of those shorts if they keep moving higher but we haven’t made big bets on these shorts so we are still sitting on them for now. Shorting is a very hard strategy, especially for retail investors so be careful.

Q. Do you know of a website where I can obtain the SKTLs trading range (primarily just the high price of the day) for any given day in 2022? My CPA is asking if I can determine this for them, for my SKTLs swaps (purchases) in 2022, which would cut down on my CPA fees (for the cost of preparing my 2022 federal income tax returns).

A. Yes here and here (you can also just Google “SKTLs crypto price”).

Q. Not a question, just some kudos to Bryce… Great article/post yesterday!

A. Thank you for saying so — I agree and thought the same.

Q. Short note that I love the new developments with TWC! Quick responses in the chat and detailed analysis on our positions and the market as a whole. Thank you! Please keep it coming!

A. Thanks for the kind words. We’ll keep pushing!

Q. How’s Amaris?

A. She’s doing great, thanks for asking. She and I have a special relationship and she “helps” me get my coffee every morning and we both love that part of our day. She also LOVES when I play chords and sing on the piano with her on my lap and she sometimes pushes the piano keys to help me make the music. Here’s a picture of her on her way to Denver with her mom and her mom’s parents for an eye check-up today.

That’s it for now folks. Rock on!