Shopified gets Citronified, LEAPs v Common, Q’s on Stocks
I will be live streaming The Great Tech Bubble Is Back, but It Ain’t Over Yet, my talk at the Money Show this afternoon at 1:30pm CT on The IAm Cody Willard App. Be sure to tune in.
Q. Cody, think about the SHOP news that Citron called it another Herbalife? Thanks muchly.
A. $SHOP is a high flying stock that certainly got some wind took out of it today. I don’t want to bet on a company that Citron’s Andrew Left has targeted. Long-time training with Cody subscribers remember that we shorted Valeant before Andrew left ever targeted it and we still are short a few shares a Valeant which are down 90% from where we shorted them. With Shopify being valued at $11 billion earlier this morning, now at 15% less than that, it is still a very richly valued company. I have been doing work on Shopify five for the last few weeks and just haven’t gotten comfortable enough to buy it. Andrew left illuminated some of my concerns today and his report. I am in neither a rush to buy more short Shopify.
Q. Q&A: What is your expectation re range of time horizons for street to recognize the opp and/or intc to show results that will compel that? What do think of 2020 35 leaps to play it?
A. I always wonder why people want to own LEAPS on stocks that I am buying rather than just sticking with the common stock. Don’t get me wrong, there are occasions as you guys know that I will buy options and sometimes long dated options. But over many decades it typically makes much more sense from a risk Ree Ward scenario to use common. For example if Intel stays around this high $30s spot For the next five years my subscribers and I will have made 2 1/2 to 3% per year on the position simply because of the dividends. Meanwhile owning the leaps with the $35 strike price would mean that you would lose almost all of your investment on those leaves even as common stockholders and making money if the stock stays around these levels for the next three years. All that said I do think that Intel could get to 60 or 80 or even $100 per share in coming years.
Q. Pi, over what time frame do you expect it to play out whether they become de facto standard or not? A year? Longer?
A. In order to establish itself as the de facto standard in RFID technology’s in the marketplace, PI Still has at least two or three years more worth of work ahead of it. We should be able to see some signs that it is becoming the de facto standard RF ID solution in the marketplace over the next 12 to 18 months.
Q. $PANW. What do you see as market cap if plays out well in 3-5 years?
A. I suppose the Palo alto networks PANW could end up with a 50 billion or even higher market cap in the next 3 to 5 years if everything goes right for the company.
Q. Hi Cody love your stuff, when was last rating of portfolio, looking for thoughts on $SNE.
A. I have been working on a latest positions update and review of all of our positions for the last week. But I haven’t finished it yet. And now I probably need to go start over and do each of the positions again with fresh analysis since it’s been more than a week since I started it. I will have it out for you guys early next week, a review of all of our positions at with updated revolution investing ratings. $SNE Has come down a little bit of late in large part because the dollar has been so weak versus most other developed countries currencies including Japan. And remember that Somaney makes a lot more money when they can sell their products while the yen is weak instead of strong like it has been like.
Q. With the rollout of 5g in the not so distant future and the sheer size of the market I’m thinking that $GLW is going to be a huge beneficiary of the massive infrastructure spending that will take place. I have read that the necessary fiber optic spending could top $100 billion in the U.S. alone! Who possibly could benefit more? They are not expensive in today’s market and even throw off a couple percent yield while we wait. What do you guys think?
A. I have talked a lot lately about my inclination to avoid fiber-optic stocks. Long time followers and readers of mine remember that I actually shorted Corning GLW many years ago back in 2001 and eventually covered that short for an 80% game when Corning was at less than two dollars per-share back in 2002. That being said Corning is an incredible company and continually innovates and yes they should certainly benefit from the 5G and fiber optic roll out to Support 5G. I have looked at Corning several times in the last few months and continue to think that it is just not something I want to invest in right now. I will have the best pier play 5G investment for you guys as a trade alert coming out before this week is up.
Q. What happened to the trade for a 5G play you were going to announce this week?
A. I will have the new 5G pic for you coming out this week. Stay tuned. This is not a store that is about to explode higher next week or something. It’s an old companies that has been around for more than 100 years.
Q. More thoughts on the whys and hows of what you are thinking about revenues and profitability for Snap?
A. $SNAP is creating new ways for us to interact/read/consume content. More important to us as investors though, I see $SNAP creating new ways for giant consumer companies like Pepsi, Doritos, Taco Bell, WSJ, NYTimes, etc to advertise and connect with customers. I think Wall Street is underestimating both Snap’s potential user growth and especially under estimating their potential revenue growth. Fair question tho, and always am concerned any time I risk my money on a stock!
