Smartphone Amaris Smile, Amazon vs the government, Deep Thoughts, ADBE & more

Here’s the transcript from this week’s live Q&A in the Trading With Cody Chat Room.

If you’re going to look at your smartphone 150 times a day (we all do) it’s nice to have a lock screen wallpaper that will make you smile. Ps. Did you know that Amaris has her own app? Search your smartphone’s App Store for her name.

Q. Cody, I know you love $AMZN, so do I. Do you have any concerns regarding this chatter about the government harassing them for causing job losses? Thanks!

A. Amazon’s certainly Revolutionizing retail (not just disrupting it) and it might make political sense for some Republican-Democrat Regimers to target it, but I would probably buy more if it got hit on that in coming months or years. (Remember too that Bezos owns the most-esteemed and important paper in DC, The Washington Post, though that doesn’t make him or Amazon impervious to being targeted at some point.) Alexa, Alexa, Alexa is more important to Amazon’s long-term value than anything else, IMHO.

Q. I ordered my first Amazon Alexa Echo on Prime Day, at a $90 discount. Looking forward to seeing what all the hubbub is about! I will explain to my wife that this purchase is my boots on the ground DD re our $AMZN stock.

A. Business expense!

Q. Do you feel $APPL already has the next generation iPhone release priced in the stock? Usually where there is a new (Super) phone launch you can run $AAPl stock into the release and sell before the release date for some good returns. I’m not sure that will be the case this time. Thoughts?

A. I tend to think $AAPL‘s set up into the next iPhone is a case of “Fade the Fader’s Fade.” That is, there seems to be a consensus that expectations are too high and that the stock will sell off on its next earnings report and/or when the next iPhone is finally released. So maybe since the consensus is that the consensus is the consensus is that the consensus is too bullish that we should actually indeed be bullish. Then again, maybe we should just stick with the long-term view! 🙂

Subscriber follow-up: So then on $AAPL, we hold to hold and then hold! I can hold on to that thought and work with it! Thanks.

A. Hold up. Let’s discuss the concept that if everybody’s holding the same thought but that we’re the only people who realize that everybody’s holding the same thought but now that we’ve discussed that everybody is holding the same thought, that everybody is holding the same thought, nobody is holding the same thought!

What do you guys think?

New subscriber response: But hold on — Cody, you’re the comsummate Contrarian, so if you’re holding on to the idea that everyone is holding on, isn’t it time to let go?

Q. Is $CMG a buying opportunity? See Seeking Alpha article.

A. First, the fundamentals. Analysts expect revenue growth of 13% this year and 18% next year and that’s pretty impressive for a food chain. Earnings are expected to rebound from the decline of $8 per share to $12 next year. But at $376 this stock is still trading at 30x earnings. And it’s not exactly a Revolutionary company. It reminds me a bit of $UA back the last couple years when it had come down but it still wasn’t cheap enough for me to be interested in buying it (still is the case with $UA by the way — I might be a buyer near $15 if it ever got there.) Too much downside risk for me in $CMG still here. That’s my take anyway.

Subscriber follow-up: Thanks re $CMG. I was wondering if the latest “scare” presented an opportunity.

Q. WaPo is the most esteemed paper in DC? Yikes.

A. Haha, well that doesn’t mean WaPo is HIGHLY-esteemed. Please look at the other options in DC and you tell me if you think there’s a more esteemed newspaper there.

Subscriber follow-up: Such a loaded question. So sad that these days media news is so polarized. So many news articles are simply editorials these days. 🙁

A. It’s amazing to go from NYT to WSJ to WaPo to NYP to NYD and see their different slanted headlines and “news”.

Q. Is $VRX a possible short candidate? I know you sold it short long ago but it has rallied the past month from what I think analysts feel is encouragement that they, $VRX are reducing debt. I think when you sell off assets at a lower price then you paid in the first place it is a recipe for failure. Am I reading this rally in $VRX wrong?

A. I think we leave $VRX alone. I’ve still got a tiny short in it, and I might go ahead and cover it, at a 90% return before risking it running any higher of the lows.

Q. Have you ever had a chance to look at $ALV? Jake has mentioned a few really good timely opportunities in the past ($AAOI for example), so I think it is worth giving a scan to his suggestions.

A. $ALV and $AAOI are both on my list that I’m finishing up.

Q. Has your opinion changed at all about $ISRG?

A. $ISRG is another one I’m revisiting. I’ve liked the stock forever, but have never been comfortable enough to buy it.

Subscriber follow-up: I hear ya. Been watching since probably under 100. Never bought until last year and of course it went down so I sold for tax purposes. As soon as I sold it started the next leg up (of course again). Ended up buying some at 700 but only half of what I had. Wondering if it makes sense to add at 960…ouch …and thanks!

A. Good luck. We’ve all been there.

Q. My stock advisor recommended $ADBE today. Thoughts?

• Different subscriber side comment: What was your stock advisor’s thesis re $ADBE?
• Original subscriber response to side comment: Haha. He just told me it was a “buy”…He has done well for me so I basically do what he says for the most part.

A. Man, $ADBE is another I’ve liked forever and have featured in my Cloud Revolution book back in 2013 when it was a fraction of today’s price…great company, but did you know that $ADBE is worth $20 billion more than $TSLA or $GM? At this $150 level, $ADBE is trading at 50x next year’s earnings estimates on a 20% growth rate. Too rich for me to join the party this late.

It’s Taco-Time from the Old Road in the Mescalero Apache Indian Reservation now — wife bringing me a takeout after having lunch there with our friend and my work-neighbor and Trading With Cody subscriber, John Underwood. The Old Road has some of the best Mexican food you will ever eat.  I can’t wait, it’s already 1pm here!