Snapchat, France’s elections, today’s big rally and you

Let’s do this week’s Trading With Cody Subscriber Live Q&A Conference Call tomorrow at 12pm ET. Join me on the phone(Dial-in: #: 641-715-0700 Access Code: 709981), in the Trading With Cody chat room or just email us your question.

Here’s a random anecdote that underscores why I think $SNAP added more than the 10 million (or 6%) growth the analysts have in their models over the last 90 days: Introducing All the News That’s Fit to Snap. The New York Times has a Snapchat-for-dummies explainer (which confused the heck out of me, even as someone who actually uses Snapchat) and a new place you can find them on Snapchat (which is confusing if you’re not a Snapchat user but makes sense if you are a Snapchat user). As they put it: “We’re going to continue telling stories on our Snapchat account and you can follow us. But you can also find us, starting today, on Discover — Snapchat’s home for content from news and media organizations.”)

Again, I’m not sure I’m sold on Snapchat’s business model, valuation or management, but I’m not sure any of that matters for the stock for the next few months. If Snapchat’s adding New York Times readers to their user base this quarter, they’re probably growing much faster than Wall Street realizes and user growth is what is most likely to drive the stock for the next few months.

And here’s a little economy/markets report for you today too…

“Sometimes I rhyme slow, sometimes I rhyme quick.” – Nice & Smooth

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain

Hi everyone. I’m back in the office today and tomorrow.

Quite a bounce in the US stock markets today, but those pail in comparison to the big bounce in stocks over in Europe and France specifically. France and its elections, of course, being the euphoria du jour spark for today’s stock market rallies. If you listen or read any mainstream analyst/pundit/broker/reporter out there today, they’ll explain to you that France and its stock markets and its economies would crash if France’s elections had turned out less favorable for France staying in the EU. Some samples:

• Investors cheer as Macron emerges as favorite to lead France
• French elections: Euro and shares jump after vote
• Markets boosted by French election vote
• Opinion:Political risk within European democracies is now off the table
• French Markets Surge After Euro Withstands Attack From the Right

Well, here’s a question I’ve asked before:

What if the “worst-case scenario” is actually the best-case scenario? I first asked this question in regards to the existence of the EU back in 2011 and what I wrote then about reads as if it I wrote it today, if you take out “Greece” and substitute France:

Most traders seem relieved about whatever the latest wealth redistribution from the masses to the banking system that the powers that be in the E.U. have come up with.  Everybody I talk to is worried about the possibility that the E.U. and the euro currency will collapse, and all the smart money people I talk to are convinced that Greece [France] could be that first domino.

Will Apple AAPL sell fewer iPads in 2013 if Poland, Slovenia, Greece and Spain all leave the Euro and go back to using their own currencies?

Will earnings in the huge move from cell phones to Google’s GOOG Android smartphones and the huge economic boom for companies like Skyworks SWKS selling into that move suddenly reverse itself if Germany, France and Austria are left using the euro and to bail out their own banks instead of depending on Greek taxpayers’ to take all the hit for the fraudulent accounting that the government there had used for years with Goldman’s help leading into the crisis?

I think I prefer the so-called ‘Worst-case scenario for Europe and the EU’. But I don’t think either case will really matter much to my portfolio as long as I continue to focus on buying the best, fastest growing companies at good prices and shorting worthless companies.

Cody back in real-time April 2017 here. Remember when the stock markets crashed initially because these same people were sure that it would mean doom for the EU, the Euro and especially for Britian and its people, economy and prosperity.

In today’s example, with France’s stock markets rallying on the relief that there’s a leading candidate for the election who’s not pushing for France to leave the EU — well, how did all these people suddenly decide that France’s earnings and prosperity and stock markets and economies would actually suffer if France’s citizens were in control of their own currency, trade, immigration and other laws instead depending on and watching trillions of dollars shift around in the EU?

How should we trade the big election results from France and the big rallies in the stock markets around the world? Same as usual — don’t trade them. Let’s view them skeptically and stay big picture and stay cool and find the next great pitch, no matter what’s happening in another random country on another random day with another random election.

What do know about tomorrow’s stock market and how all these elections and cycles will play out over the next year and five years? Listen to Nice & Smooth & Clemens/Twain. Sometimes history rhymes fast, sometimes it rhymes slow.