Space Livestream With The Chairman Of The Planetary Society, The Next Champs, TSLA Summary, More

I’ll be joining Dan Geraci, the chairman of the Planetary Society, on a Youtube “Ask Us Anything” livestream tomorrow (Tuesday) January 17 at 7pm ET where we will be discussing The Space Revolution, the space debris crisis and how to invest in space over the next decade. Here’s the link to subscribe to the stream beforehand and to watch it live tomorrow.

Here’s the transcript from this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A chat.

Q. I took your advice years ago and Bought AMZN, FB and TSLA. Do you see any new companies like these that may be the next champs that are off the radar?

A. I like DOCU and RKLB and especially SpaceX and some of the other still private Space Revolution companies as the next most likely trillion dollar market cap creators (RocketLab ain’t going to a trillion by itself, but SpaceX probably will be worth more than a trillion in ten years and dozens of space companies will be worth a trillion or more in twenty years from now in my humble opinion). AI and Space seem to me as the clearest sectors to search for the next batch of champs.

Q. Seems like TSLA is gonna miss earnings. Seems like the media will talk it down too. What’s your short term outlook, say 1 year out?

A. I’ve been writing the same thing about Tesla near-term since Elon went overdrive on alienating people who consider themselves “liberal” or whatever. That’s not changed. Neither has my long-term analysis. Here’s some of my recent writings on Tesla: “Speaking of Tesla, I recently got approved by the Tesla gods for my Model S Plaid to receive the latest and greatest Tesla FSD Beta update, which I’d expected to be better than the prior versions I’m used to. I didn’t expect that my Tesla can now drive me completely without intervention from my office door in the middle of a tiny town in NM to my home’s front door at the end of a long rural road with a long driveway with cattle guards and gates. It’s not perfect and it hesitates sometimes at tricky gravel crossroads, but it works nearly 99% of the time pretty darn well. When the system gets confused, you just take over and drive the car yourself. It’s not ready for full autonomy just yet. But let me put it this way — it drives much better than the assistant junior college basketball coach who used to lean on and off the gas varying 5 mph back and forth over the speed limits of the highways in rural Texas when I was in a van with six other giant athletes thirty years ago. Frankly, Tesla FSD Beta blew my mind in ways I haven’t had it blown since, well, a few weeks ago when I ChatGPT came out (more on ChatGPT below) and for the first time in years, I do think full autonomy in most driving scenarios is just about here. And Tesla looks ready to win it all first perhaps.” AND “Q. Hi Cody, you commented awhile back that Tesla would be cheap at $165 and I wondered if it’s a screaming buy at $107? How do you see 2023 playing out for Tesla? A. I’ve been writing about this for the last few weeks and basically there’s a near-term demand issue going on and that’s a concern but longer-term the stock is probably cheap here just on auto sales. I did buy a little bit more for the hedge fund below $110 but I’m not loading up on it (yet?). Q. Is TSLA or AAPL a better buy here? A. TSLA, probably, in my humble opinion. Q. Hi Cody, are you concerned that Elon Musk is alienating the traditional buyers of TSLA cars in blue states with many of his political positions expressed in his twitter feed? Do you think the share price will affect his willingness to state his political beliefs? A. Yes, here’s what I wrote about it two weeks ago: “The biggest concern is that Elon’s alienated millions of people who used to be idea Tesla owners. How many of the Hollywood people who have left Twitter because they said it had changed under Elon for the worse were going to buy a Tesla but now would buy anything but, for example? Also, I got an email from Tesla yesterday saying they’d give a $7500 off if I’d take delivery of a Model 3 or Y before year end. That basically says Tesla’s going to miss their quarter on deliveries and now on margins too. Whether that’s already priced into the stock is another debate, but there is more potential downside near-term obviously and this threat of missing the quarter looms large now. I think that email I got yesterday morning was received by millions of other people on Tesla’s mailing list and traders probably realized what that meant and that’s why TSLA got hit hard and sold off intraday yesterday. Longer-term, bulls have to believe that the superiority of their product, the critical mass of Charging stations that work very well and the potential of robots and Dojo computing to drive more upside in years to come. But this has been painful this year and I’m not sure when the pain will end near-term.”

Q. Cody, with the price war on EV that Elon just started, and the recession, would you think there would be a good short on a few EV OEMs?

A. Oh, man, I’ve been short all the non-Tesla EV stocks off and on since I kept telling you all that there was a bubble in EV stocks and they all have crashed 80-90% or more. Like back in summer of 2020: “The non-Tesla electric vehicle stocks like NKLA, WKHS, PLUG and so many other stocks in other sectors too look like to me like they’re going to crash at some point, probably sooner rather than later.”  And here in December 2020: https://tradingwithcody.com/2020/12/07/trade-alert-its-so-easy-and-everyday-its-getting-closer/ “The froth in the markets is starting to bring us the opportunity to slowly but surely build our hedges in the hedge fund by selectivity starting to short some of the most ridiculously bubbled up stocks that have little or no operations but claim to be “Electric Vehicle” or “Cloud” plays. I see a lot of stocks that are trading for hundreds of millions or billions of dollars that will likely end up back at the penny stock status in which they’d spent the last few years.”  Or here in January 2021: “NIO’s market cap is $90 billion. $90 billion for a Chinese electric vehicle startup. 90 billion. This is my speechless face. I didn’t know it was $90 billion. I genuinely didn’t. I thought it was 30, 40, 50 billion. And now I’m like $90 billion… This is a $100 billion company. Do you know how hard it is to build a company that’s worth one-tenth of a trillion dollars?!”

Q. Hi Cody, can you give us your latest thoughts on RKLB? It’s been moving a lot lately. Thanks!

A. RKLB’s big move up from the recent lows from a few weeks ago is steady Betty so far. Here’s what I wrote about RKLB in the most recent Latest Positions a couple weeks ago: “I don’t know if it will be bought or what the premium would be. I think it’s insane that Australia and/or Northrop Grumman or someone doesn’t just buy RKLB and immediately get the ability to do orbital launches. But you know the old saying about the market being insane longer than space stocks can stay solvent? Wait, that’s not a saying, but it could happen. It’s also possible that Rocket Lab could run out of money in a few years and it could then be bought even cheaper out of bankruptcy or something. This is a start up and Space is hard.” I still think that’s where we are. Every time I look at a matrix of countries that don’t have domestic orbital launch capabilities, I’m shocked that Rocket Lab, a proven orbital launcher doesn’t get bought by one of these countries: Country Satellites in Space Domestic Orbital Launch Capability United States 1,959 Yes China 379 Yes Russia 1,596 Yes India 200 Yes Japan 192 Yes France 115 Yes Canada 88 Yes Germany 77 No South Korea 70 No Italy 62 No.

Rocket Lab still a risky venture that’s losing money and costs 10-20x more per pound than it’s more famous competitor, SpaceX which could drive its own orbital launch prices down another 50-90% as their Starship comes on line. Just looking at all sides of the bull and bear case on Rocket Lab as I always try to do on any stock I analyze.

Also I just remembered this from a year ago or so in a Live Q&A Chat: Q. Over the years I’ve enjoyed listening to your music and reading your write-ups with musical references, its probably the reason I started following you in the first place. Maybe you would consider doing the Elton John song “Rocket Man” except it would be “Rocket Lab!” A. “They packed the satellites last night pre-flight. Zero hour 9:00 a.m. And they’re gonna be high as a kite by then. Satellites orbit the Earth so much when costs drop. It’s getting cheap to get out to space on such a frequent flights. And I think it’s gonna be a short, short time til touchdown brings the boosters ’round again to find. The satellites will make things work at home. Oh, yes, yes, yes, It’s Rocket Lab Rocket Lab, shooting satellites up there above.” Adapted from: “She packed my bags last night pre-flight Zero hour 9:00 a.m. And I’m gonna be high As a kite by then I miss the Earth so much I miss my wife It’s lonely out in space On such a timeless flight And I think it’s gonna be a long, long time ‘Til touchdown brings me ’round again to find I’m not the man they think I am at home Oh, no, no, no I’m a rocket man Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone”

Let’s ask ChatGPT this question: Cody’s Input: “I enjoy listening and reading your write-ups with musical references. Please rewrite the Elton John song “Rocket Man” except make it about the orbital launch company “Rocket Lab.” ChatGPT’s Output: “Verse 1: Rocket Lab, burning out his fuse up here alone Rocket Lab, he’s got a mission to complete And he thinks of all the people on the ground As he’s orbiting at such a speed Chorus: Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, burning out his fuse up here alone Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, he’s got a mission to complete Verse 2: Rocket Lab, blasting off into the sky Rocket Lab, reaching for the stars above With payloads on board, he’s making history And he’s not coming back down Chorus: Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, blasting off into the sky Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, reaching for the stars above Verse 3: Rocket Lab, orbiting the Earth below Rocket Lab, a sight to see from far away With each successful launch, he’s pushing the boundaries Of what’s possible today Chorus: Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, orbiting the Earth below Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, a sight to see from far away Outro: Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, making history Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab, reaching for the stars above.” Haha.

Q. Are there any pure plays on the new chat Ai toy? I think I saw MSFT throw down big on it. If not, how do I play it?

A. I am spending a lot of time and energy trying to figure out the best AI/ChatGPT Revolution Investments right now.

Q. Can we buy openai using the Forgeglobal platform, with a minimum 100k investment?

A. I’ll take a look.

Q. Also, BKSY is hanging in there. What are your thoughts?

A. I think I might like PL better than BKSY but am not crazy about either, really.

Q. Hey Cody, what’re your thoughts on SpacedVentures.com? Does this seem like a legitimate way to invest in SpaceX if they can make it happen?

A. I’ll take a look at it.

Q. This is not a sexy pick but HON has leadership positions in the verticals you’re targeting. They’re a major player in sophisticated high end factory and supply chain automation and building safety to hit the on-shoring revolution. They are also a leader in high end mission critical sensors for aerospace to hit the space revolution. Also a pretty safe recession holding no?

A. I like where you’re going with this. Will dig in.

Q. Hey Cody, I shorted CVNA. Is it time to cover?

A. Another one that I shorted off and on since I warned everybody about it two years ago when it was 20x higher than its current price: “The short hedges like CVNA are small positions and I just recently started shorting CVNA and I should have just put in there that you could consider its mention in the Latest Positions as a Trade Alert.” https://tradingwithcody.com/2019/06/25/risks-of-downturn-bitcoin-knockoffs-gold-spike-and-more/ CVNA was literally down 99% from its all-time high when it put in a near-term bottom a couple weeks ago. I am pretty sure that CVNA stock will be a $0 as I’ve said for the last year or so but it can go to $12 before it goes to $0. It’s a matter of timing and your own risk-tolerance. I am not short CVNA in my personal account and the shares of CVNA I am short in the hedge fund were shorted at MUCH higher levels and it’s now a tiny position since the stock has fallen so far.

Q. What are your thoughts on NET?

A. Good company, expensive on near-term metrics. But pretty cheap compared to where it was a year ago!

Q. Who do you like to win the Superbowl?

A. Chiefs vs Niners. 37-35 SF wins on a last minute pass from Brock Purdy to make Mr Irrelevance a complement for future last picks. Purdy flames out over the next two years though and is traded to the Broncos to replace a grumpy Russell Wilson in 2026.

Cody’s ChatGPT Input: “Write a story about a quarterback from Iowa State named Brock Purdy, who is drafted as the last pick in the NFL draft. He goes on to replace the injured quarterbacks ahead of him during the course of the season. The team he plays on the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl 37 to 35 on a last minute pass from Brock. This makes Mr. irrelevance the moniker for the last pick of NFL drafts a complement for a future last picks.” ChatGPT Output: Brock Purdy was just a small-town quarterback from Iowa State. He had always dreamed of playing in the NFL, but he never expected to be drafted as the last pick in the league. But he was determined to prove everyone wrong. Brock arrived at training camp with a chip on his shoulder and a determination to earn a spot on the San Francisco 49ers roster. He worked tirelessly, day and night, to improve his game and show the coaching staff what he was capable of. Despite his hard work, Brock found himself buried on the depth chart behind several more experienced quarterbacks. But he never gave up hope. He knew that his chance would come, and he was ready to seize it when it did. That chance came early in the season when the starting quarterback went down with an injury. Brock was thrust into the spotlight, and he didn’t disappoint. He led the 49ers to several victories, and soon, he had become the team’s starting quarterback. The 49ers had a great regular season, and they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. They were set to play against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that was heavily favored to win. But Brock and the 49ers weren’t intimidated. They believed in themselves and their ability to pull off the upset. The Super Bowl was a back and forth affair, with both teams trading scores throughout the game. With less than a minute remaining in the game, the 49ers found themselves down by three points. The ball was in Brock’s hands, and he knew that this was his chance to make a name for himself. With time running out, Brock dropped back to pass and launched a bomb down the field. The ball soared through the air and landed in the waiting arms of his wide receiver in the end zone. The 49ers had scored the game-winning touchdown with only seconds remaining on the clock. The crowd erupted in cheers as the 49ers celebrated their Super Bowl victory. Brock had led his team to the promised land, and in the process, he had become a legend. He was no longer the last pick in the draft, but rather, he was the quarterback who had led his team to the Super Bowl and won it all. Brock Purdy’s story is one of perseverance and determination. He showed that no matter where you’re drafted, if you have the talent and the drive, you can make it to the top. From that day on, the last pick in the NFL draft was no longer known as “Mr. Irrelevance” but as “The Future Super Bowl Champion.”

That’s a wrap, thanks all!