Subscriber Chat Room Archive (January 9th – January 15th)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 9:45 am
looks like reversal in Cien, Jnpr at least
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 9:54 am
nice continued move in CREE almost another 3% so far today 8% for the week so far.
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:20 am
Don’t go posting all over the Internet, but my wife is 39 weeks pregnant and we’re about to welcome Ms. Lyncoln Lee Willard to this world! That’s why I’ve been at the doctor’s office so much lately — modern day birth.
drefleury
January 9, 2014 – 10:21 am
@Cody: Congrats Cody… Enjoy this special time!
joe.evicel
January 9, 2014 – 10:21 am
@Cody: Congrats, that’s great news
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:21 am
@eryba1: Yes, Cree’s been popping steadily and the 3 month chart sure looks exactly like the 3 month chart did 3 months ago, if you follow me.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 10:22 am
Congratz!!
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:23 am
I truly get why people call a new baby a miracle. I mean, amazing stuff.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 10:25 am
@Cody: U dont know the 1/2 of it. Wait until you see the baby born
It goes from sonograms detailed pictures, video as they come THEN to the real thing, 2 diff worlds.
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:25 am
@eryba1: Butterflies.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 10:25 am
Enjoy a special happy momentous time in your lives.
rkumar
January 9, 2014 – 10:25 am
congrats cody
drefleury
January 9, 2014 – 10:27 am
The baby is entering the fourth trimester. They need to be held closely for a few months. It’s a huge transition for them.
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:28 am
I’ll probably be a little bit light on the writing after the baby is born in the next week or so. I’ll be spending as much time as my wife will allow me to holding that baby.
rzepeda
January 9, 2014 – 10:29 am
Congrats! I have my 2nd coming in June! Fun times ahead..being truthful and sarcastic at the same time : )
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:29 am
I’ll be staying on top of all our positions and the news and will immediately update you on anything meaningful, of course.
carl
January 9, 2014 – 10:30 am
@cody Just wish for health; the rest is life. Go with the flow in other words.
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 10:30 am
@carl: Amen, amen, amen. I pray constantly for health and know that the rest is just blessings. Rock on!
MikeM
January 9, 2014 – 10:31 am
@Cody: Best wishes to you and your wife on your child’s birth!
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 11:02 am
baby born today?
Jeffhok1970
January 9, 2014 – 11:02 am
@Cody: congratulations!
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 11:02 am
@Turtle108: No, not yet. Probably next week.
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 11:02 am
Just wanted to give you guys thge head up.
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 11:03 am
was hoping for today, my bday! good luck Cody, wishing you only the best- what a blessing!
drefleury
January 9, 2014 – 11:08 am
@Cody: PS, I have regrets about not taking more time off when each of my children were born. It’s a special bonding time, also for the parents.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:15 am
markets are struggling, jobs # looming tomorrow could change that. For now 2014 is starting out for tech the way 2013 did, down and disinterest. Not sure how much to read into it at this early on, but with earnings approaching and a greta run into the end of 2013. lets protect our gains and be mindful of not giving too much back. There seems to be a lack of energy in stocks for the most part its more fits and starts.
rzepeda
January 9, 2014 – 11:43 am
@eryba1 well said..
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 11:48 am
The fresh money has not hit the markets yet to help with the so called january affect. Watching twitter here – another 5% pull back from here I am rebuying my position. fwiw
jakef1111
January 9, 2014 – 11:51 am
Is my screen messed up? Whats up with icpt
jakef1111
January 9, 2014 – 11:52 am
short?
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:52 am
@rzepeda: Thank you. Aside from me heeding that perspective for my own accounts, I will be away next week starting tuesday. I was hoping for a run into the first week or 2 of 2014 and we did get a NICE run in specific names until today. CREE, AMZN, GOOG, SNDK,CIEN, ZNGA. So as Tuesday fast approaches for me I am selling down my positions and going into cash.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:53 am
@chrismossey: Yes for the most part it may be the desire to see that jobs # and how the markets react to it before that fresh money gets put to use.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 11:54 am
@eryba1: I was wondering how you were handling your vacation. Thank you for sharing.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:55 am
@chrismossey: handling my accounts while on vacation?
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 11:55 am
Apple seems to love 539 and change on the low end of its range.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:58 am
@chrismossey: I have found that I can not be in a physical location trying to relax and enjoy myself for an extended period of time and have my mind FIXED on work. Just never works. I have found for me it works best to sell a percentage of the accounts and have peace of mind to go away w/o needing to check up on the markets while being away. After 2013 with cody and some GREAT picks of his, I am locking in 2013 gains in 2014.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 11:59 am
@chrismossey: once again apple is acting like the markets, weak, no real direction as we enter the Jobs # tomorrow.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:00 pm
Makes perfect sense for me. I actually don’t like feeling like I need to always check on things so I do the same thing. When I went to St Andrews on a two week golf joint last year I went to 100% cash in order to not have a care of what went on.
jakef1111
January 9, 2014 – 12:01 pm
Look at icpt lol
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:03 pm
@chrismossey: “to not have a care of what went on” that is what I am looking for on this vacation if that is possible. Its been a WHILE since my family has been away and its a vacation we are all looking forward to.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:04 pm
cocktails at noon. a glass of wine at 430pm. 85 degree heat / sunshine / beach & pool and no electronic devices. = Nirvana
notlaw72
January 9, 2014 – 12:05 pm
Cody, congrats to you and your wife on your success at combinant DNA. Best wishes, Robert Walton
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:05 pm
@chrismossey: u sound like my travel agent and or have a copy of my itinerary
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:07 pm
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:07 pm
Can it hold?
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:08 pm
@chrismossey: sadly when I do have some internet access at some point I will check in on some stock data, its become part of my DNA as I wont be going to 100% cash but a hi enough % to not need to look at stocks for a few days.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:09 pm
Sorry – you cannot see the chart I last posted. try this. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@chrismossey: that or it forms a short term double top at 570
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:11 pm
yes, that thought crossed my mind. The problem is the second one was two days before christmas when they announced the formal china deal and people were away. So it was pretty volatile.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:12 pm
If it clears 570 it probably goes right to 600 and it will be interesting if it powers through that or if there is resistance there. The last time it went up into 600 it blew right through it.
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 12:13 pm
FWIW – Amberella is positive today. I really wish the options on this had more liquidity in them. There would be some fun plays.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:13 pm
@chrismossey: yes its a real toss up as to what gets accomplished.
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@eryba1: what is your plan to protect gains- would you sell in tranches? hedge? sell partial positions? I find selling is hard- thanks for any answers-
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:23 pm
@Turtle108: Simply to protect what has been a very good 2013 is to simple sell. Again my circumstance is different just in this case as I will be away for an extended period of time. If I were not it is VERY VERY liberating mentally to either go heavy or all into cash. This gives you a fresh perspective. I hope many here have had a GREAT 2013 and to lock gains in 2014 U pay taxes in 2015 if that interests / influences anyone.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@Turtle108: The markets have not had much direction. Select stocks I mentioned before have had a NICE start to 2014. The market has not had leadership yet. Some banks have faired well BAC and Citi and goog, CREE, SCTY, AMZN,SNDK, YELP, its been few and far between for a group and much more individual scattered stocks.
jahmon
January 9, 2014 – 12:35 pm
Thanks for the shares, Cody!
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:36 pm
@Turtle108: selling should be the easy thing, Lock in gains, put money in your pocket, have cash to buy pullbacks that ALWAYS come. U have to look at your portfolio as a full packed car ( multiple stock / investment positions) in order to move forward and get somewhere you need GAS, if U R fully invested all the time U never have cash to buy gas to move U going further. U must sell rips and buy dips at some point to lock in gains. If U have no cash on the side U can never buy new positions add to current positions. You will be stock without the ability to change course, direction and basically have any flexibility.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:38 pm
you will be stuck that is
not you will be stock.
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 12:51 pm
@eryba1: all excellent points- thanks-
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 12:52 pm
@eryba1:
appreciate the help-
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:55 pm
@Turtle108: not a problem- always glad to help- hope its acted upon. also always look at the internals of the market with the help of these and or others- http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/ http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 12:57 pm
@Turtle108: U also asked about hedging. In this case I added some gld and gdx as portfolio protection. I would add some index shorts if I saw some cracks in the uptrend, but I will not initiate any short hedges as I will not be able to follow them and see what the market is doing.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 1:04 pm
gld and gdx not waiting for the end of the day to get into or make their way higher to the unch or into the green today.
ebdavids
January 9, 2014 – 1:43 pm
@eryba1: Just curious: You’ve laid out well the logic of selling your 2013 gains before you head to Nirvana. if you’re holding some losses (God bless you if you’re not), what do you do with them? Doesn’t your mind stay curious about THEM while you’re sipping your pina coladas?
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@ebdavids: good question. My only losses are in my early additions in 2014 of new positions in GLD and GDX 1%. They are my portfolio protection in case of any correction , pullback etc that comes while I am in Nirvana as you stated!!
ebdavids
January 9, 2014 – 1:48 pm
Funny, my major losses are in UNearly 2013 old positions in GDX calls, just about to go under (so, in a sense, nothing to worry about). Something tells me I should read your comments and moves even more closely than I do!
Cody
January 9, 2014 – 1:55 pm
Come meet me right now for this week’s Live Q&A Chat http://tradingwithcody.com/chat/
chrismossey
January 9, 2014 – 2:38 pm
boy there is just no volume in some of our stocks. Apple as an example is down on less than 7m in volume with an hour and 23 minutes to go.
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 2:40 pm
@eryba1: your view on INTC pls?
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 2:41 pm
@eryba1: they are reporting soon (next thu)
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 3:11 pm
@chrismossey: I think as we spoke earlier, new money waiting for jobs # to be out of the way and see market mood and direction after that # is reported.
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 3:16 pm
@slonda: here is one perspective on INTC: ntel presented at the Consumer Electronics Show this week and announced several new mobile and tablet products. There was nothing needle-moving, but these products do show the new direction at the company, which we believe will lead to a stabilization in sales in 2014 and a gradual improvement in the company’s margin.What could be a big driver to earnings longer-term is the new Atom chips that Intel has coming out, which are more competitive on power consumption and performance — and should lead to better share gains and design wins vs. Arm Holdings . This will be important as Intel struggles with the ailing personal-computer environment. Still, recent indications have showed that PCs have
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 3:16 pm
stabilized and that Intel’s guidance for the year — mid-to-high single-digit declines — are appropriately conservative.
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 3:20 pm
@eryba1: COOL, THX. will watch it. I think could be good buy before results, as I see surprise on positive side (view) rather then negative. Thanks for your opinion!
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 3:32 pm
@eryba1: asking for a lesson: yesterday we talked and watched JDSU, it looked like could spike and instead tanked
I dind’t act on it. Should I today, as it is nearly 6% cheaper or chart is cracked and I should (you would?) forget it and not try to game it (buy)? Could be good general question a guess, if not, sorry for name (stupid) question. Regards!
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 3:33 pm
not name but naive
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 4:57 pm
@slonda: 1st there are no stupid questions
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 5:08 pm
@slonda: 2nd- jdsu reversed hard as U said and now instead of looking like a breakout it broke under its 50 day moving avg on nearly double its avg daily volume-both not good signs. I was looking for a possible breakout in cien as well. It too pulled back falling nearly 4% at one point today and ended down 2.7%. Cien did not break under its 50 day avg like JDSU did. At this point tomorrows jobS # can show us the markets next short term direction. I would play it safe and wait to see where the stocks find support and then possibly look to add if one is so inclined. The markets are weak and so are MOST stocks. We will know if and when they are ready to rally. You will see good breadth, volume and follow through
eryba1
January 9, 2014 – 5:08 pm
right now we are seeing none of that.
slonda
January 9, 2014 – 5:46 pm
@eryba1: thank you, that is perfect answer to my ask for lesson, I hope I learned it
THX.
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 6:08 pm
Cody ? @eryba1: hi- are you around? I missed the Q&A and am wondering, is Cody really selling shs in Scutify?
ebdavids
January 9, 2014 – 6:19 pm
@Turtle108: yep, it’s true. Each current member is being awarded 10 shares (at a value of $3) if/when the offering happens. And he’s alloocated up to something like 200,000 shares for us to buy in pre-IPO (at the same price. Did you not get an email on it?
Deter08
January 9, 2014 – 9:37 pm
@Cody, loving the opportunity to get in at the groundfloor of Scutify as I use it every day and love it. In your post today you mention to keep the email as proof of our gifted 10 shares but I have never received emails from TWC. Is this a setting I have wrong on my account??? Just want to make sure I have my 10 shares
Turtle108
January 9, 2014 – 9:49 pm
how very cool- but no, I have not received an email- would love to!
MikeM
January 10, 2014 – 12:37 am
@Deter08: I didn’t get the email either from Cody either on this. Has been hit and miss for me with emails from TWC and I can’t figure it out either.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 7:37 am
@Deter08: contact bill at support@tradingwithcody.com if U R not o the email list.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 7:37 am
@Turtle108: Same thing for U turtle contact Bill and he will take care of it. support@tradingwithcody.com
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 8:10 am
In addition to your e-mails to bill directly I have sent him a message myself. The e-mails should be taken care of.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 8:11 am
@eryba1: thanks eryba!
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 8:20 am
@eryba1: it’s interesting to see gold up this morning- we’ll see what happens at 5:30 (8:30) but everyone knows it’s going to be a great job report. Usually this would spread fear of tapering. Are things changing? Is gold sniffing inflation from better news? or are we gold holders about to lose again. 11 minutes to find out.
Golfcar101
January 10, 2014 – 8:20 am
same here no email sent one to bill
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 8:22 am
@Turtle108: time will tell as U say. It can all be repelled in a moment or confirmed with a good close and volume. We will have to wait and see. At some point when the 10 yr bond yield rises over 3% and holds and heads higher inflation will start to matter and gold should see a rise just from that relationship. However when that happens is the key. Need to be patient on this one like other investments.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 8:37 am
@eryba1: wow- completely opposite reasoning going on- it was a weak job report, so expect less tapering- gold is rising on the news, so far! either way I’ll take it- as stated, been adding to gold/silver stks.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 8:37 am
If gold holds steady I may add to it today. futures have gone into the red off this jobs # and yield on the 10yr is now under 2.9%
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 8:41 am
@eryba1: where are you looking at futures? I show them still up higher- but reading they are down- I’m looking at Bloomberg and http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 8:42 am
@Turtle108: they were green then went red now back to green, I have my stock trading software
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 8:55 am
Picture of HK china apple store today. https://twitter.com/jdr1024/status/421632263844290560.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 9:13 am
@eryba1: LOL! I think I would order online rather than wait in that line. Does FedEx deliver in China like it does here?
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 9:16 am
@Turtle108: I think FDX works the same there as it does here. May take a bit longer depends where the product is coming from. GLD and GDX holding their gains so far in the pre market. Will be an interesting day for them both especially is they close above where they are now in the pre market.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 9:20 am
@eryba1: IF gold is to continue up, I would split my funds allocated between GDX- GDXJ- SLW. that is an easy way to get a lot of coverage. I do have other favorites.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 9:29 am
@Turtle108: gld gdx and slv are about to or are at these pre market levels bumping up against their overhead resistance 50 day moving avg. Very interesting day for them all.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 9:32 am
@eryba1: what are your numbers for the 50 day? I know I should look myself-
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 9:33 am
gdx – 22.3 gld 120.7 slv 19.5
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 9:36 am
@eryba1: thanks for that- we are getting close. wishing they would push thru with conviction.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 9:40 am
@Turtle108: patience, follow through days, higher than avg vol is what we also want top see for confirmation.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 9:53 am
gold is acting well so far and as I said earlier I will add to my position if It does, so I added to my GDX position in the form of common shares
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 10:10 am
so my mental stop on apple is 532. I am close to closing all positions in it. Which means for the rest, capitulation. Probably time to buy more. fwiw
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 10:18 am
SLW- FNV- MUX- SAND- GDXJ- GDX- those are my tickets. been slowly scaling back in.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 10:19 am
@chrismossey: how many % down does 532 represent ? sorry the trade is not working.
carl
January 10, 2014 – 10:24 am
@chrismossey Try to sell on the way down and buy back later. It will rebound eventually before the taper comes in. Either that or sell on the way down and buy puts at the same time. Aapl is a good company which does not do enough public bs and is covered by morons in the press.
carl
January 10, 2014 – 10:30 am
@chrismossey I meant buy calls not puts. My bad
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 10:43 am
Preservations of a 200% gain at 532.
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 10:45 am
@chrismossey: nice! congrats on that! I would take some profit but why not have a long term position when you have such a huge cushion- maybe you are a trader only.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 10:46 am
The issue for me is that I built a really nice long term position in the Jan 500
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 10:48 am
s’s last spring, so my cost basis is essentially 511 or 11 dollars per contract and they expire next friday. So I will preserve the gain and roll into a higher strike from July of this year and out.
slonda
January 10, 2014 – 10:59 am
anyone following GLUU? opinions?
JeffDaniel
January 10, 2014 – 11:41 am
Apple is in a quiet period but even it wasn’t it is an easy stock to take down because Tim Cook refuses to defend the company and brand. Doug Kass of Seabreeze believes Apple will trade below $525 most of the year.
Cody
January 10, 2014 – 12:35 pm
I can’t remember the last time I stirred up so much irrational anger with a stock like I have seen from the $NQ longs since I wrote negatively about it yesterday. More anger from $NQ lovers makes me more bearish on $NQ. No position for me yet.
jakef1111
January 10, 2014 – 1:14 pm
@Cody: i was barking about icpt yesterday had an incredible one day spike today again!!!! Id like to respectfully request a similar stock for us TWC subs…. On a more serious note and realistic do you see any ops for biotech? You spoke of a transplant company a while back… Is there any biotech stock in the future that you will recommend?
rkumar
January 10, 2014 – 1:15 pm
fsl a buy here??
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:24 pm
nice action in the metals today., FB holding its own. aapl seems like a double top at 570? Yelp and social plays doing better with lnkd having some some support at 205 now at 218. intc up a 1% but its the metals in SLV GDX and GLD that are approaching their over head resistance 50 day moving avgs that are most interesting. Do they bust above? retreat from the first advance and try to overcome that ceiling. Interesting to watch.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:25 pm
@chrismossey: u still in AMBA?
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:27 pm
thats OR try to overcome that ceiling? Interesting to watch
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:27 pm
yes, half position in one of my accounts
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:28 pm
@chrismossey: parabolic move is now being retraced, next stop 25? u enjoying your GLD and GDX buys from this week?
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:29 pm
Looking very hard today at lnkd and yelp. My sense yelp has a date with 100 in the short term and lnkd wants 250 again.
Johan
January 10, 2014 – 1:29 pm
eryba1: how do you use stop loss in your positions?
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:31 pm
Just sat down on the acela and logging into my accounts now so I have not seen gold today. Spent a bunch time with a guy in my office today that teaches people in NY?NJ about Bitcoins. Fascinating discussion.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:33 pm
@chrismossey: should be market dependent in that I mean to get to those levels especially for lnkd we will need more positive sentiment IMO yelp is on its own world.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:35 pm
@Johan: stop loss are for me mental stop loss orders. I do not set physical ones at my account. If I have a full 10-15% of my account and its down 10% I sell, if I am building a position I dont mind as much but its all dependent on the market, stock, direction, gut, what I am reading, sentiment,
Johan
January 10, 2014 – 1:37 pm
@eryba1: good, thanks… I have never used stop loss in my account too, just mental as you said. Thanks a lot
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:38 pm
same for me. i.e. 532 was my mental stop in apple and all out now.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:38 pm
@chrismossey: so I should buy your shares then? as U said now its the time for others to get in when U capitulate?
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:40 pm
trust me it kills me to post that but it was the right thing to do. I will own some by the end of the day is my guess as start of my new position.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:41 pm
@chrismossey: better to take the $$ and sit back and let ones mind reset and refresh and then look it as the market gyrates as its been doing sloppy and choppy action to start the new year.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:42 pm
I will sleep well tonight.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 1:42 pm
so I am positive in my gold position – nice call for now.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:44 pm
@chrismossey: yes added to my GDX early this morning. transports doing well as oil in the form of the USO has corrected AGAIn from 36 to 33. VIX getting too low at 12.38
MikeM
January 10, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@eryba1: VIX move lower surprises me today. Been watching VXX go lower also. I am initiating VXX position here
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 1:52 pm
@MikeM: vxx has been trending down for some time, just making an observation about the vic down 4% today down to 12.37. in past usually bounced from these levels = market usually down
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:00 pm
bought a small position in yelp in the last hour. adding to gold and looking the TZA
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:01 pm
@chrismossey: gold I like, YELP after its straight up move? I have it on my shopping list for when I get back if / when the markets correct.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:05 pm
agreed. I bought 20 share position just to get interested in it. Kind of like eating my own dog food – i.e – we use it a lot for feedback on the restaurant and ad’s.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:07 pm
for those interested. http://www.bitcoinnyc.org
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:08 pm
@chrismossey: the why I clearly understand. That and trip advisor are GREAT tools, for resorts, destinations, to do, restaurants never NOT use when going away or planning outing
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:13 pm
@chrismossey: so after your bitcoin session will U accept them at the restaurant? like what U heard? only positives or head negatives as well?
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:25 pm
Very interesting and he am looking into how to accept them but it could be hard to convince my customers. The hardest part is simply what the real intrinsic value is.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:30 pm
@chrismossey: all valid points. probably too early in its stage to have customers show up at physical locations looking to use it as a currency vs online transaction.s, more easily verifiable with software possibly.
MikeM
January 10, 2014 – 2:38 pm
@eryba1: Your thoughts on WAGE here at $63? This was oneof Cody’s shorts last year at a much lower price.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:40 pm
@MikeM: nice uptrending nicely sloping chart, nothing extreme looks like a buy if one were looking for a good setup,
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 2:42 pm
@MikeM: i would only short something if I saw a bad setup, ugly chart and were so inclined to get short, cracks in the stock chart, no support etc otherwise finding good stocks is hard enough in 2014 as the market is sloppy and choppy YTD
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:57 pm
@eryba1: need our merchant account to be able to convert it. I don’t think we are there yet but I will find out.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 2:57 pm
just grabbed so GDX a small blip down.
MikeM
January 10, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@eryba1: Thanks regarding WAGE
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 3:03 pm
JNPR keep chugging along adding nearly another 2% today, while JDSu and cien correct further
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@eryba1: WAGE looks like yelp. FB doing doing well. I am might add a bit here.
chrismossey
January 10, 2014 – 3:06 pm
My sense is FB has a date with 100 in 2014
rkumar
January 10, 2014 – 3:07 pm
jnpr ny news??
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 3:07 pm
@chrismossey: 2014? thats a tall order, will watch and see, 2015 yes I would think. easy does it.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 3:08 pm
@rkumar: something as i wrote the post it was up 1.8% now double that %
slonda
January 10, 2014 – 3:32 pm
@eryba1: AAPL?
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 3:35 pm
@slonda: needs to find support first 529? 525? 511? all retracement levels.
slonda
January 10, 2014 – 3:36 pm
thank you!
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@chrismossey: I like that type of thinking about FB-
Turtle108
January 10, 2014 – 4:07 pm
have a good weekend everyone- and look at the gains in the gold shs today.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 4:07 pm
once again it was more slop and chop vs clear direction and leadership. Gold and silver all closed rt at their overhead resistance 50 day moving averages. The VIX was down 5.5% at 12.18 rt around these levels 11.5-12 it usually bounced. The yield on the 10 yr SANK to 2.86% or about 3.5% decline today. banks need rates higher to make better margins so the banks stocks were weak today. Leadership was really in the transports and metals. Select tech led in YELP, JNPR,LNKD, NOW, and FB. Next week will be very interesting as it could reveal early leading sectors if volume and follow though is seen in metals. Oddly for slop and chop greed is still too hi http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ and the vix says too much complacency.
eryba1
January 10, 2014 – 4:14 pm
@chrismossey: Have fun at the game- http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/areaweather?cityId=2035&cn=Foxboro&state=MA
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 8:08 am
Cree downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Stifel downgraded Cree due to valuation, high Street expectations, a seasonally weak quarter, and the mix shift towards Home Depot bulbs driven by utility subsidies.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 8:12 am
Inflows into stocks never started outflows did. Bonds soaked up the cash. m.barrons.com/articles/BL-FUNDSB-14366
rkumar
January 13, 2014 – 9:42 am
Elliott magmt buying stake in jnpr.
rkumar
January 13, 2014 – 9:42 am
any thoughts?
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 10:12 am
@eryba1: Did you buy my email unload?
drefleury
January 13, 2014 – 10:22 am
@Cody: I heard that in the next few years Saudi Arabia increases it’s irrelevance in the global energy space. Apparently with new technologies (fracking, tar sands, solar, wind, hydro, tidal), oil is projected to get squeezed. Could that make the oil industrial complex a short candidate? All that infrastructure, machine assets, land holdings that are below market they’re toxic, etc… Just some random thoughts, do you think oil is going to keep becoming more scarce and more costly, or if this has merit.
jahmon
January 13, 2014 – 10:28 am
@rkumar I’m trimming my JNPR calls which blew up today, that’s for sure.
Lu
January 13, 2014 – 10:40 am
gold looks like its bottoming
jahmon
January 13, 2014 – 10:42 am
and VIX now under $12
Lu
January 13, 2014 – 10:45 am
Nice time for a VIX June 13 call option. VIX rarely stays at these levels.
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 10:49 am
@Lu: agree, hopefully. metal stks are very appealing if you’re right-
Lu
January 13, 2014 – 10:51 am
If you plan on holding them through the year the risk is less.
flyfishin
January 13, 2014 – 11:01 am
@eryba1: Have you ever taken a look at GG.
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 11:03 am
@flyfishin: GG , while I am not eryba,
, it is the lowest cost gold producer – a solid backbone for a gold pf- IMO. am interested in what erbya says-
flyfishin
January 13, 2014 – 11:15 am
@Turtle108: Thanks I have had a few guys I work with really pushing it the last week or so with the same feelings.
carl
January 13, 2014 – 11:22 am
@eryba1 Is jnpr a buy, or is it too late?
Olivepetunia
January 13, 2014 – 11:27 am
Anyone interested in NUGT for a gold play? Someone mentioned it a few weeks ago, but I can’t remember who.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 11:52 am
@carl: i never like to chase its been a greta move so far from 18 to today 25.5
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 11:53 am
@flyfishin: GG long time ago. I rather not BANk on one name I thin its safer to play the basket in the GDX
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 11:55 am
@chrismossey: e-mail unload? U mean the apple position U sold?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 11:59 am
nice slow stead action in the gld and GDX as they bump up against their 50 day moving avg overhead resistance. lets see if they can break above on good volume with follow through days.
Golfcar101
January 13, 2014 – 12:31 pm
anyone have thoughts on fslr is it going to be dead money now until er or other news event
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 12:34 pm
@Olivepetunia: NUGT is a wild rodeo ride- be careful! I have been in and out of it multiple times, would like to be able to take a long term, (well, weeks or months) position in it- but want gold to confirm this move first-
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 12:34 pm
@Golfcar101: earnings will drive its next direction thats for sure. lets heed codys e-mail today calling for some sort of correction in late jan or early feb.
Golfcar101
January 13, 2014 – 12:35 pm
@eryba1: thank you
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 12:42 pm
@eryba1: yes
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 12:45 pm
Where is the post of Cody calling for a correction? Seems to be a bold statement to not have it flashing on the website.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 12:46 pm
@chrismossey: e-mail today- Valuations to blow your mind 2014 has already started with quite a bang, as mergers and trading heat up. Feet to fire, I would guess that late January or early February brings out some panic selling over who-knows-what and you’ll get your 5-10% pullback. And think about this right now — it WILL NOT be easy to buy into the next panic sell off.
satishask
January 13, 2014 – 12:48 pm
@Olivepetunia: Yes I still have NUGT. Hopefully will get back even soon. All the best.
aaleexaandeer
January 13, 2014 – 12:50 pm
@eryba1: “it WILL NOT be easy to buy into the next panic sell off” Why will it not be easy?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 12:51 pm
@chrismossey: No I did not buy ur stake. today is my last day at work- I have lightened up quite a bit my biggest holding now is GLD and GDX
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 12:52 pm
@aaleexaandeer: simple, when stocks fall always feel like its a bad time to buy , will it go lower, is it safe to buy when others are selling, emotional feeling of unsafe time when things are declining.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 12:56 pm
@aaleexaandeer: some tools to look at to see level of oversold, overbought, fear green nature internals of market- http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ , http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/, http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/ This plus what U read what your gut says, what cody write all to be taken in absorbed, digested and then you can better make decisions for your portfolio.
Olivepetunia
January 13, 2014 – 1:00 pm
@chrismossey: Cody has copied an answer he gave in last Thursday’s Q&A. Look at the transcript: it’s the very first question.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:03 pm
hah, have not read it. thank you.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:04 pm
@chrismossey: enjoyed the game yest? luck 3 interceptions, 1st play of the game spelled bad news.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:04 pm
@eryba1: yes, I recall you are lightening ahead of break. Enjoy your time and I did have a great time at the game all be it, very wet. I was sitting right in front of that first interception or should I say standing, no one ever sat.
aaleexaandeer
January 13, 2014 – 1:05 pm
@eryba1: Thank you for the explanation. Well let’s see if there is such a sell off and what the cause will be. I just joined a few weeks ago and picked up some stocks the past 3 weeks based on recommendations of this website. Works quite nice as a support tool so far. Picked up TSLA, OSUR, CIEN and FB and actually attained a 15% gain until that unexpected job report last Friday. I hope the forthcoming earnings reports of the next 2 weeks will help push my gains a little up again so I can sell before possible a sell off.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:05 pm
lets protect our positions people. Things have not been looking up YTD aside from a select FEW.
slonda
January 13, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@eryba1: is Cree’s W chart broken?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:08 pm
@aaleexaandeer: this is now the seasonally slower time of the year for stock performance, what seems to be WANTING to breakout is the metals in GDX and GLD. have they both made aW bottom, both looking to breakout here. Watching for that. Aside from this sector its been hit or miss SNDK good, cien pulled back hard along with CREE today even if it did have a nice run from 54 to 67. FSLR is weak off that GS call liking SCTY vs FSLR, gogo has bene good as well as FB. is there a short term double top in FB at 58. lets just play is safe. Along with codys call for a pullback. we had not had a10% correction in all of 2013
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:09 pm
@slonda: cree got extended and this is an excuse for further profit taking after its 54 to 67 run, chart not broken but does need to find support at this 61 level.
slonda
January 13, 2014 – 1:10 pm
@eryba1: understand, thx
aaleexaandeer
January 13, 2014 – 1:19 pm
@eryba1: Thank you for the advice. I suppose the message right now is sell/cash and wait for a pullback. Also judging your comment “lets protect our positions people.”
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:19 pm
Really interesting day in the markets. Down big but several of my stocks are holding or up. ffiv, goog, aapl, amba, tqnt – ffiv up 5%
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:20 pm
@aaleexaandeer: yes, protect your gains market seems to be acting weak for 2014 no leaders, just a few select stocks acting well
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:20 pm
@chrismossey: F5 Networks upgraded at William Blair JAN 13, 2014 | 8:08 AM EST FFIV was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, William Blair said. Estimates also upped, given a pickup in spending and better execution.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:21 pm
golden cross perhaps in its favor.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:21 pm
@chrismossey: crish yes a few are up, just play things tight I would think as the greens are slowly getting less green
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:22 pm
@chrismossey: everything aside from GLD and GDX acting strongly, these are gaining momentum, the others even in the green today losing their days momentum
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:24 pm
vix has found support at 12 in the past and where is closed this friday. Time to make a shopping list of what names U want at what prices to start buying back and how many shares etc
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:25 pm
yes, – very interesting – everyone seems to be downgrading gold or there yearly view. Seems to be just the opposite – so “flip it” who do we know that says?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:26 pm
@chrismossey: the man whose name of on the top left of this browsers window
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:26 pm
is on
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:26 pm
yep, I am adding to it today. if we get a hiccup in the market it will be up.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:27 pm
gold that is.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:27 pm
@chrismossey: saw my post today on barrons article / link on inflows? they starts but into bonds and outflows of stocks after a great 2013 to pay taxes in 2015 essentially
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:29 pm
gdx-gld each up nicely as you have pointed out. I am going to add a bit into strength. So with your last comment seems like a profit rotation per barons. People are settling on bond returns first and then will pick their stocks.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:29 pm
We are on the verge of breaching Friday’s lows, which will likely trigger stops.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:31 pm
I would love for xone to give us a shot at an entry here. This stock has not stopped in two weeks.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:31 pm
@chrismossey: seems like it. Many thought like I did inflows to continue into 2014 but instead people taking great 2013 profits in 2014 to pay taxes in 2015 and park some of that $$ into bonds. Market has clearly been weak YTD and no signs yet of support. The only sector showing strength is gold so far
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:33 pm
@chrismossey: patience. if we see a10% correction in the markets stocks could see twice that decline. Lets not rush, but have cash, dry powder and be patient if we see downside action to buy at better reduced prices.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:35 pm
the strange thing is you don’t need to sell now to pay in 2015 – you’ve all year. Seems like a scared reaction. Which will present its own flip it moment. I think a play here is adding google feb, march, July, aug, oct, nov calls ahead of earning on any weakness. Bidding well under the market on these with 1/5 type position bids. – I am patient right now and have the plenty of dry powder with my liquidation on friday of 90% of my apple holdings. Was hoping to see 520 today not 540.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:37 pm
@chrismossey: sure U dont NEED to but to lock in the highest prices most stocks that did well in 2013 were at their hi’s in 2014 so what better time to lock it in and be sure to sell hi vs risking a decline after a great 2013. as for apple its just back to its 50 day avg downtrend line it if fails here we would see 500.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:42 pm
yes. Its 100 day is at 515 and the september low was right at that 100 day number of 445 or so. If that gets breached the 200 day is at 473. It could happen but getting this close to earnings – it would be pretty surprising. How is the volume on the overall market – are we close to ringing these sellers out.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@chrismossey: we all know sometimes even earnings doesnt help, it all depends on mood of the market, right now its been slop n chop action and no real positive sentiment for stocks as a whole. aside from gold its been very select stocks with upside. Lets just be careful protect your portfolio, try to keep them at as hi a level w/o giving too much back.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:47 pm
@eryba1: you are dead on with the vix call – thing has bounced of 12 constantly.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:47 pm
meant to say consistently.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:50 pm
many things are lining up for a decline, Bad jobs #, baltic dry index has been plunging, Oil decline although great at the pump and manufacturing costs declining it does show weak demand. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
joe.evicel
January 13, 2014 – 1:52 pm
3D stocks making a quick downturn
jahmon
January 13, 2014 – 1:53 pm
CREE body slammed today almost exactly as much as JNPR rewarded…
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:54 pm
Very much counter to what the fed thinks should be happening. A lot of the weakness could be weather related as well. Who knows. I do know this, it is hard to hire good people right now. So we are at the height of hiring for the moment. Also, as an example our company is willing to pay people more now to get them in the door. I don’t see this slowing for a while and if people are making more, they will spend it.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:54 pm
@joe.evicel: @jahmon: while gold gld and gdx starting to gain traction.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:56 pm
@chrismossey: stocks are funny that way, they seem to look further out at times and we can not make heads or tails of the current action. We know its been weak overall YTD and so we must respect that trend. To fight it will not help grow our accounts.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 1:57 pm
agreed. My comment was more in support of buying a dip. Gotta go. Have a nice trip.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 1:59 pm
@chrismossey: thank u
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 2:04 pm
anyone have any other question for me, about the markets etc. I am here for the next 3-4 hours the I will see you all in 2 weeks.
Golfcar101
January 13, 2014 – 2:32 pm
@eryba1: enjoy the vacation
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@Golfcar101: Thank U. I am very much looking forward to it. 1st one in a year
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 2:43 pm
@eryba1: have a great trip !!! we will miss you here-
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 2:44 pm
@eryba1:
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 2:44 pm
@Turtle108: TY- its has become a very good site, exchange of ideas, educating one another.
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 2:51 pm
@eryba1: agree completely- and thanks for keeping us on the straight and narrow- it helps. and how about, one more time, for old times sake- give us the 50DMA for GLD- GDX- (I could go look, but…..)
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 2:54 pm
gdx0 50 day avg 22.25- 22.3 and gld 120.30- 120.5 area
Turtle108
January 13, 2014 – 2:57 pm
@eryba1: so we’ve broken thru- !
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@Turtle108: broen though would imply a closing higher high, and volume. so far we have 60 min left and no confirming higher volume as of yet
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:00 pm
@Turtle108: its edging higher, let it tell us its broken through you will clearly see and feel it. Volume on both gld and gdx is at 1.2 the avg daily volume and 1 hr left, so not convincing yet.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:03 pm
@Turtle108: at some point in investing U get a clear GUT feel after reading material daily, seeing charts, seeing internal oversold bought levels, fear greed levels, bull bearish levels etc of what the market wants to do. You will see and feel stocks as a whole supported or being sold and stayed away from.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:09 pm
thats 1/2 the daily volume on the gld and gdx with 52 min left so the volume is running light as these 2 gently rise above their 50 day moving avg momentarily. The market is clearly under pressure the dow is down 171 1% with the NAZ down the most 1.67%
sudesh
January 13, 2014 – 3:11 pm
@eryba1: I am trying to get an handle on IEF it is floating up which would mean lower interest rates on the T bills that last few days
sudesh
January 13, 2014 – 3:14 pm
@eryba1: the forces that will cause the interest rates to rise and so IEF to fall will be ??? a weakening dollar, right?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:15 pm
@sudesh: yes that was also the jist of the barrons article. Money flowing out of stocks locking in a great 2013 in 2014 and instead of sending new $$ for 2014 into stocks money if slowing OUT f stock funds and into bond funds as rates come crashing down. The 10 yr rate was about to break 3% then last fridays jobs # stopped that in its tracks and reversed hard now at 2.827%. Needs to find support here or we could see 2.67% next or lower at 2.45% IMO
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:17 pm
@sudesh: rates should rise with a strengthening US economy, but that jobs #, slower retail sales # all working against it and the market for that matter as a whole. Individual stocks will prosper but market mood and sentiment has to first finish its bout of profit taking and correction if we are seeing as a change of market character is now here and underway IMO
sudesh
January 13, 2014 – 3:21 pm
@eryba1: so the forces now are causing the IEF to rise as interest rates are falling,,,and yet when the feds stop this buying of our own bonds the rates will need to rise to find buyers for the T bills..when might this happen? and with the strengthening economy….
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@sudesh: when is the trillion dollar question. It was looking that way until the jobs # last fri. now many want to wait until the NEXT jobs # to see if that weak # was an anomaly or a trend. Until then we have earnings and need to see/ hear what they have to send. From the character change we are seeing stocks want to go lower to get ahead of what may be a good qtr for stocks at the end of 2013 but a weakened Q1. We need to watch for this and as cody pointed out the correction me be starting early to get ahead of this sort of action.
sudesh
January 13, 2014 – 3:29 pm
@eryba1: I realized when I typed “when” looking for the crystal ball….hah thx!!!
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:40 pm
@sudesh: We would all love to know then when! We need to look for the market to tell us when that is. RT now its saying its not low enough to get buyers interested and earnings should help stock specific names to begin with. Where will the markets be when earnings start in full force for our names is the question.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:43 pm
OIL down hard, FB down 4% cree 10% amzn 2% vix up 12% baltic dry index down badly for a while now, and we are not yet oversold enough on the charts – http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/, not enough fear- http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:45 pm
meanwhile although volume does not confirm it just yet gold is catching favor to start 2014 or so it seems
rkumar
January 13, 2014 – 3:54 pm
gold slv up—inflation coming??
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 3:57 pm
@rkumar: I dont think its so much a function of inflation at this point not when the 10 yr yield is dropping from 3% to 2.8%. I think its an investment idea after a near 30-35% decline in 2013, a place to park money where some sector is seeing upside. Gold may have gotten too low. Down the road it may be the vehicle to ward off inflation as investment. So that aspect / mentality may be starting in the VERY EARLY stages perhaps.
JeffDaniel
January 13, 2014 – 4:37 pm
Cody, Do you see the Google Acquisition of Nest Labs run by Tony Faddel another example how Tim Cook is too slow to move Apple into new markets? I am very surprised to see that Apple did not buy this company
Cody
January 13, 2014 – 4:43 pm
I’ll be talking unemployment benefits vs bank bailouts and other controversies with old friend Alvina Alston on http://www.arise.tv/ at 5pm EST.
Cody
January 13, 2014 – 4:43 pm
@eryba1: Be careful, have fun, peace, love Elad!
JeffDaniel
January 13, 2014 – 4:43 pm
@eryba1: I agree that Apple looks like a double top at $570. If 2014 turns out like 2013 then this will be Tim Cooks last year. Interesting watching Market caps between Apple and Google. The later might catch up and surpass Apple in a year if Tim Cooks doesn’t innovate
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 5:13 pm
Ok Guys thats it for me today. I’ll C U guys in 2 weeks from today. Gold seems to be picking up favor in 2014 as the rest of the market settles in for more pain and downside. More follow through is needed with volume to confirm this move. If you havent done so already play some defense and protect your capital. Make your shopping list and targets you are looking to add if & when hit and then leave room under that target if things swing lower. The Vix is starting to move higher, we havent seen a 10% correction in all of 2013. We are not yet oversold even after today so things can go lower. Earnings are rt around the corner. Lets see what companies say for Q1 of 2014 as we know it may have been a very good Q4 as the S&P close at all time his in 2013 at 1848.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 5:15 pm
Watch for internals , greed fear levels, bullish bearish levels, and most important see if stocks find support that is the key. I think Cody will be right as we are seeing the markets change character and is now down nearly 2% ytd with todays hit. I’ll try to check in when I can and see whats going on. Otherwise keep your portfolios at as hi a level as possible. DOnt try catching falling knives to soon too fast wait for some support. This way we can follw the trend higher vs trying to find THE BOTTOM. Good Night.
Janmara1
January 13, 2014 – 8:35 pm
Cody, Any comments or speculation as to why apple passed on nest when it appeared to be a natural fit. Money cannot be the answer so it’s either professional jealousy,potential privacy issues, apples own plans for this business segment or something that’s just not obvious to investors in apple . I believe this really requires some serious thought . Your take?
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 9:44 pm
From a TA I follow who was also on tonight on cramers show. In the “Off The Charts” segment, Cramer went head to head with colleague Carolyn Boroden to see what 2014 holds for both Apple , a stock which Cramer owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, and Twitter . Boroden recently called an area of resistance for Apple at $575 a share, a prediction that came true as the stock stalled. She now sees floors of resistance at $511 and $490 a share but sees the overall uptrend as intact. Ultimately, Borodwn sees $587, $603 and $792 a share for Apple longer term. As for Twitter, Boroden used a 30-minute interval chart to determine Twitter’s zig-zag two-step lower is just about at an end, signaled this stock too is almost ready to resume higher with $79 a share possible. Cramer agreed
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 9:45 pm
I believe that was floors of support vs the word resistance.
eryba1
January 13, 2014 – 9:47 pm
Cramer said he agreed with Boroden that the selling in these two names may almost be at an end, as both companies as poised to have a great 2014.
chrismossey
January 13, 2014 – 9:52 pm
Great feedback – get onto your vacation!
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:34 am
Hello everyone
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:35 am
Lately I have pondering about buying DDD.
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:36 am
what is a good price to buy into DDD?
Golfcar101
January 14, 2014 – 9:37 am
@Josephl: gm, going to let these 3d stocks settle for awhile after syss outlook today
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:40 am
DDD has a great outlook in the future. I guess I’m just puzzled when to buy in
Golfcar101
January 14, 2014 – 9:43 am
maybe ask cody tomorrow in weekly chat
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:43 am
DDD is Dow 3.64 percent today
Josephl
January 14, 2014 – 9:47 am
Correction DDD is down 6.39
joe.evicel
January 14, 2014 – 9:49 am
All the 3D’s are getting hammered
drefleury
January 14, 2014 – 9:50 am
Anyone holding Jan AAPL calls? I have some 550’s, and I’m wondering when to cut losses… Only 4 days left
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 11:20 am
@drefleury: i rolled all calls on friday to the april 600’s and july 600’s. I had every week from this week and all of february along with a large block of Jan 18 500’s bought last spring.
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 11:21 am
I would roll now, you are swapping comparable value and yours still have value in this bounce.
drefleury
January 14, 2014 – 11:36 am
@chrismossey: Are you thinking the rest of the week will be uneventful? I’d love to recoup half of what I’ve lost so far… Timing was off, as these were up big three weeks ago when I was trimming them.
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 11:41 am
My experience with apple over the last year has been that fridays are not a good day. I can’t predict tomorrow or thursday. You will recoup even if you roll and give yourself a chance to really recoup if you go out 3 – 6 months or more.
carl
January 14, 2014 – 11:42 am
Go to cash now to avoid downturn or ride it out? Any thoughts?
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 11:42 am
I put 1/3 into april and 2/3’s into july.
drefleury
January 14, 2014 – 11:43 am
@chrismossey: Good points… I think I’ll sell half today and roll them, and if they go down tomorrow, sell the rest.
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 11:45 am
Long term apple is going up. It needs to clear this early year gains selling as eryba1 said over the last few days. Do what makes you comfortable. Rolling them you are still in the game.
drefleury
January 14, 2014 – 11:46 am
@chrismossey: Yeah, and I have a problem forgetting the tranch profits I’ve taken on these as they move up… I hate seeing red on my screen, but sometimes you have to follow the program.
ebdavids
January 14, 2014 – 12:30 pm
Yeah . . . that memory of what you already made or lost on a stock thing.
joe.evicel
January 14, 2014 – 12:50 pm
what do you guys think of $VIX down here at $12 again?
jahmon
January 14, 2014 – 1:04 pm
I almost bought yesterday under $12, then it shot up 13 or 14% and back down 10% now…It is tempting to buy some longer dated puts…
jahmon
January 14, 2014 – 1:05 pm
calls I mean
JeffDaniel
January 14, 2014 – 2:14 pm
Apple- This is the prove it year for Tim Cook. Tweaking existing products is making Apple a market follower instead of leader. Amazing to see Apple stock at these levels, should be much higher but there is a major Tim discount
rkumar
January 14, 2014 – 3:50 pm
cody –what semiconductor stocks are you looking to buy on a pullback???
Nels
January 14, 2014 – 3:54 pm
anyone trimming TQNT?
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 3:55 pm
I am not – we are heading into handset earnings season – this as more room to go before then.
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 3:55 pm
There is some strength to todays rally. I have orders in underneath the market that are not filling as they have in prior days.
joe.evicel
January 14, 2014 – 3:56 pm
I trimmed $TQNT. I think we will get a bit of a retraction to buy in before earnings on 2/4
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 3:57 pm
apple is the 27th – it will trade up to and off of this being it is 60+ percent of revenue.
Nels
January 14, 2014 – 3:58 pm
Justing thinking about the huge gap from July 2011. 8.60’s may be the ceiling…or the springboard.
Nels
January 14, 2014 – 4:00 pm
Trimmed a 1/5.
chrismossey
January 14, 2014 – 4:02 pm
It is not overly expensive at 18 times earnings. A great qtr could take that down to 14/15 times. Just saying, do what is comfortable. You know the saying, let the winners run and cut the losers and with it behaving well even in a bad chart like yesterday I would tend to let it run a bit more.
joe.evicel
January 14, 2014 – 4:02 pm
@chrismossey: Good point, I won’t be touching it between the two ER’s but before then I just feel there will be a pullback to the $8.20’s
jakef1111
January 14, 2014 – 4:46 pm
Kinda think the emotion is funny behind aapl every time it corrects… Its always tim cook being incompetent rather then realize a stock went from 380-550 without a significant correction… Just like the run up to 700 before everything was peachy….. This is all a part of trading and valuation expansion and contraction based on analysts best guess… As investors we see the whole picture and price average in and not get over leveraged… There were reports of ny 100k pre orders from china mobiles online launch… Jan 17th brings the actual launch….. The pieces while slowly are coming together…..as long as those things stay on course and aapl keeps raking in cash were in good shape…. There are a lot of avenues for income we dont even realize for aapl stick to the playbook buy the di
jakef1111
January 14, 2014 – 4:52 pm
Look at the 3d space… Looks like a correction is coming xone is getting hammered ssys got hit hard ddd down…. Time to hold your nose and nibble? @cody where are you!
jahmon
January 14, 2014 – 8:24 pm
Cody is embarking on life’s richest journey…
Turtle108
January 14, 2014 – 10:33 pm
@jahmon:
well said. so precious.
JeffDaniel
January 14, 2014 – 11:09 pm
@jakef1111: You make very good points but there is a Tim Cook discount on Apple and the belief that Apple has slowed down innovation will become real this year if we don’t see new markets. I have owned Apple since 2002 and own every major product they sell, even a Mac Pro ( yet to receive). The amount of money that Apple is earning is based on what they have done in the past and that was taking risks which they have not done in 2+ years. I hope you are right and the stock goes up measurably from here. I think it will but as Cody once said-Tim Cooks enjoys the view from the planes built by others. IPhones now should have already had bigger screens and with as much money as Apple has they should have the best Apple TV (forget about an actual TV) content than anybody else but they don’t. Go
jakef1111
January 15, 2014 – 12:07 am
@JeffDaniel: i understand the concerns and i try not to be naive but i also try to be objective.. As a ceo you try to maximize profits on a product and the iphone size is being maximized every step of the way and feeding a hunger as it gets larger… If you think about the “innovation” that steve jobs brought to the table he didnt make the first mp3 player he made the most thoughtfull best one.. He didnt make the first cell phone… He made the cell phone better…. Aapl didnt develope the first tablet…. They revolutionized it… My point is the so called innovation at aapl isnt creating the lightbulb its making the brighttest and best one that lasts the longest
jakef1111
January 15, 2014 – 12:10 am
Theres a lot of noise aapl has become a huge co with huge revs and er but the law of large numbers catches up to it and it will… I would rather the innovation take time then have a bunch of crap products come out that waste money and dilute the bottom line
flyfishin
January 15, 2014 – 9:19 am
Looks like AAPL is making a good move up this morning.
joe.evicel
January 15, 2014 – 9:26 am
anyone buying more $XONE here or just staying in a holding pattern?
Jeffhok1970
January 15, 2014 – 9:51 am
FWIW – I am looking at some options in the 3d space. Xone and SSYS. 3-6 months out. Will probably buy some $DDD common later today as I think it is best in breed. Have been sucessful buying $DDD on these sell offs.
Golfcar101
January 15, 2014 – 9:51 am
i`m holding for others to report possible bad news
jakef1111
January 15, 2014 – 10:10 am
@Jeffhok1970: i think ssys and ddd will come out the winners they have a lot of avenues for revs ie consumers and industrial…… Just my idea
jakef1111
January 15, 2014 – 10:16 am
kinda funny last week when aapl was getting hammered i saw reports of pre orders with china mobile being slow and 100k in the first weekend blaming the late launch… Yesterday i saw a report saying its been 60k preorders per day since 12/25 seems like someone was trying to take it down to get it….http://news.investors.com/technology-click/123013-684536-apple-stock-aapl-down-on-china-mobile-iphone-pre-orders.htm
jakef1111
January 15, 2014 – 10:16 am
http://www.techinasia.com/china-mobile-ceo-says-millions-iphone-preorders-taken-already/
Olivepetunia
January 15, 2014 – 10:23 am
@joe.evicel: repurchased ½ of shares I sold last week on the way up
joe.evicel
January 15, 2014 – 10:36 am
@Olivepetunia: Nice
Turtle108
January 15, 2014 – 10:46 am
@Olivepetunia: hi- I tried to private message you the other day when we were talking about it, just to see if it would work- did you see my mssg?
Turtle108
January 15, 2014 – 10:46 am
@Olivepetunia: it didn’t say anything, just was testing
Jeffhok1970
January 15, 2014 – 11:39 am
Hey gang, anyone have a good hedge idea? I have some TWTR puts but otherwise am very long. Thinking of just buying some SPY puts but hoping there is a better choice.
chrismossey
January 15, 2014 – 11:40 am
yes, apple. It is a heck of a lot cheaper than the market and has gone up when the market has been down recently.
Turtle108
January 15, 2014 – 11:41 am
I’m holding all my gold and adding – I like the action so far today, the stks turned green while the metal is down-
msamuels2000
January 15, 2014 – 11:47 am
@chrismossey: I like the idea of a long that often doesn’t move with the overall market as a hedge in this bubble. My choice is BIDU. I’ve had better luck with VIX calls than SPY puts as a hedge FWIW
chrismossey
January 15, 2014 – 11:49 am
GDX is performing well today – it is up when gold is down. We must be close to a floor in the price of gold and the miners were blown out until the market got a sense of where gold will settle. Seems as though GDX is trying to close the overextended gap against the price of the physical.
msamuels2000
January 15, 2014 – 12:05 pm
I’ll probably take another run at GDX once my worthless Jan calls expire. Speaking of Gold…starting a physical gold position and finding the markup over spot is around 3.5-5%. I’ve also found a few deals at 1.5-1.75 markup. Anyone finding a source below 1.5% over spot?
msamuels2000
January 15, 2014 – 12:06 pm
BTW, I don’t care what form or denomination – just want to accumulate a variety at the lowest possible cost
fathead
January 15, 2014 – 12:09 pm
http://www.providentmetals.com/provident-metals-1-oz-gold-bar.html and http://www.providentmetals.com/1-oz-ohio-precious-metals-opm-gold-bar-9999-fine-in-card-iso9001-certified-with-qr-code.html
fathead
January 15, 2014 – 12:10 pm
about the cheapest on the market and reputable. a little bit under 2% over ask
slonda
January 15, 2014 – 12:19 pm
is there a subscriber’s chat with Cody today??
Olivepetunia
January 15, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@Turtle108: I don’t remember seeing anything but I may not have been looking at the time. Possibly it opens a chat window and if you’re not looking it closes automatically. Probably should ask Bill now/if it works.
chrismossey
January 15, 2014 – 12:20 pm
We need a far better website with real IM service from Cody. This technology is old. Kind of ironic.
msamuels2000
January 15, 2014 – 12:20 pm
@fathead: Thanks – just needed a sanity check
Jeffhok1970
January 15, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@msamuels2000: 1.5% is darn good. I paid 3% last month on some coins.
fathead
January 15, 2014 – 12:31 pm
in the past, i’ve sold my physical to bullion shops but they don’t like to buy back too many of 1 particular type of coin. it can get annoying if u need to unload fast. where do u guys sell your physical when the time comes?
drefleury
January 15, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@chrismossey: credit where it’s due. Thank you for encouraging me to roll those Jan550’s in AAPL out to July.
drefleury
January 15, 2014 – 1:45 pm
July 600’s that is.
fathead
January 15, 2014 – 1:47 pm
aapl is the most painful stock or option to hold. it always loses its gains for whatever reason.
chrismossey
January 15, 2014 – 2:06 pm
@drefleury: no worries. Nice gain in those today. I am buying more on any pull backs into earnings.
jahmon
January 15, 2014 – 2:08 pm
No weekly Q&A today?
msamuels2000
January 15, 2014 – 3:01 pm
Anyone else tempted by BBRY puts here? Euphoria over management appointments won’t change the downward trends in every metric that matters
Turtle108
January 15, 2014 – 4:40 pm
hey everyone- IMO, FWIW, and all that- if you’re going to buy GDX, why not split the money between GDX and GDXJ- it’s possible you will get more bang for the buck- and one more thing, SLW.
Turtle108
January 15, 2014 – 5:27 pm
@jahmon: you said it best- “Cody is embarking on life’s richest journey…”- maybe that’s where he is today!
arnold
January 15, 2014 – 5:46 pm
We wait with anticipation to welcome Lyncoln into the world. She will be Cody’s greatest adventure. Welcome to fatherhood Cody, scariest thing you’ll ever do.
JeffDaniel
January 15, 2014 – 5:50 pm
@fathead: Apple should be $600 after earnings assuming their outlook is strong.
