Subscriber Chat Room Archive (September 5th-September 11th)
Here’s the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
carl
September 5, 2013 – 10:12 am
@eryba1 Any thoughts on Intel (I am long stock and options) Take a look at http://seekingalpha.com/article/1674302-intel-so-you-want-some-growth-huh?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0. Do you think that Goog is a buy at this price level? I have a feeling that it will go sideways for a long time.
tendency
September 5, 2013 – 10:13 am
hey guys – what are some of the hedges cody recommends to protect downside risk?
vmontes
September 5, 2013 – 10:18 am
About to buy some Apple Nov $525 Call options, any thoughts?
JeffDaniel
September 5, 2013 – 10:31 am
Cody, Would you rather be long or short Apple into the September 10 event?
jahmon
September 5, 2013 – 1:22 pm
Cody…trying to read into your take on the WAGE puts with just a couple weeks left. You going to let them ride and hope for a bump or get out with a 30% loss?
drefleury
September 5, 2013 – 2:12 pm
@jahmon: I dumped those September puts, but I think the November are still game… Thankfully I got out of the September with no gain no loss, but I can’t see them working out great with this short time frame.
drefleury
September 5, 2013 – 2:13 pm
@Cody- thanks for the love you showed my Panthers… I hope you’re right.
jahmon
September 5, 2013 – 2:33 pm
Thanks for the feedback drefleury…I was up 38% or so at one point…shoulda/woulda/coulda…A down day could get them back to even possibly…I’m not that experience with call options so was hoping for more specific advice from Cody….he didn’t say he was selling but didn’t think they’d work out in Sept…so trying to figure out when to get out.
ebdavids
September 5, 2013 – 2:40 pm
@jahmon: I’ve got the same situation/aquestions as you, Jahmon. this is why we’re hoping he visits the chat more often.
ebdavids
September 5, 2013 – 2:40 pm
(and if he does, scrolls up to see what he missed!)
ebdavids
September 5, 2013 – 2:41 pm
Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.1%) will have an outsized impact on the global battery industry if the automaker keeps pace with its production forecast, according to VentureBeat. As a result of Tesla’s aggressive production ramp-up, Panasonic (PC +2.5%) has expanded capacity and Samsung (SSNLF.PK, SSNGY.O
is negotiating to produce batteries for Tesla.
ebdavids
September 5, 2013 – 2:42 pm
(The above is via Seeking Alpha. Make sense to anybody?)
ebdavids
September 5, 2013 – 2:43 pm
Would love to have Cody’s input on this, too, of course.
eryba1
September 6, 2013 – 8:12 am
Deutsche Bank Sees Technology Networking Giants Grabbing Even More Market Share http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-sees-technology-networking-121502952.html
rzepeda
September 6, 2013 – 8:45 am
Good morning all. Futures pointing up after Jobs report
eryba1
September 6, 2013 – 9:21 am
Facebook estimates raised at SunTrust SEP 06, 2013 | 8:27 AM EDT FB estimates increased thriough 2014, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey said. Strong video ads, Instagram and Graph Search. $55 price target and Buy rating
tendency
September 6, 2013 – 10:12 am
short ideas anyone?
seanssocal
September 6, 2013 – 10:20 am
@eryba1: So do we get up thru 50day on SP
seanssocal
September 6, 2013 – 10:20 am
today? or nest week? Confidence?
rkumar
September 6, 2013 – 10:30 am
sndk up a buck
rkumar
September 6, 2013 – 10:31 am
intc and soxx strong
rkumar
September 6, 2013 – 11:05 am
was that a bottom in mkt??
blueislandbike
September 6, 2013 – 12:12 pm
is Cody’s Calgone position = CCC ?
MikeM
September 6, 2013 – 12:25 pm
@rkumar: I think if the US decides to strike Syria the market will take a much bigger hit at least short term. I am on the sidelines with this potential conflict in our near future.
jahmon
September 6, 2013 – 12:55 pm
@blueislandbike Yes
MikeM
September 6, 2013 – 1:09 pm
MikeM
September 6, 2013 – 1:10 pm
Sorry about the link I just posted to the chat. That was unintentional.
eryba1
September 8, 2013 – 1:05 pm
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Apple Inc. rose Friday to close out the week 2.3% higher on the heels of a report that it may introduce iPhones with bigger screens in a bid to grab a wider slice of the global smartphone market. Apple shares closed up 0.6% on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that the iPhone maker is looking into devices with screens as large as 6 inches, taking a cue from rival Samsung Electronics. Samsung has been offering phones with significantly bigger screens which have been strong sellers. The Korean company this week unveiled its latest Galaxy Note smartphone which boasts a 5.7-inch screen.
eryba1
September 8, 2013 – 1:07 pm
@seanssocal: NOT yet U can see the caution again none of the 3 scenarios have resolved themselves, SYRIA, Federal budge and fed tapering. S&P sitting JUST under 50 day avg as U can FEEL the market is unsure whether to continue buying to break over head resistance or will it retest recent lows all depending on those 3 factors I first stated. ASIDE from that individual stocks are DOING THEIR OWN THING from CIEN FB AAPl GOOG SNDK AMZN etc etc thats the key here
eryba1
September 8, 2013 – 1:16 pm
From Cramer on Amazon that he thinks it may RUn into year end and why– OK, here’s the story. You know people will soon be saying that this will be an Amazon Christmas, and that the numbers are coming in far better than expected. I know, given comments from United Parcel Service (UPS) that its expensive overnight business was weaker, that that’s because Amazon has been opening warehouses all over the place that don’t need quick overnight because they are so close to customers. That means the gross margins for Amazon Prime could be through the roof. Amazon is just a terrific story that people love to bet against.
eryba1
September 8, 2013 – 1:30 pm
LinkedIn (LNKD) — One look at that in-the-hole secondary, just priced, tells it all. Who was the genius — and I actually mean genius — who realized how brilliant it would be to price the piece of merchandise 20 points in the hole? They basically created an initial-public-offering-style pop that left big institutions scrambling to get a fuller allocation — hence the big move up. I hear people using crazy numbers in the out-years that could have this stock selling at 25x “earnings.” Sorry, I told you to that you would have to suspend your beliefs in order to win this way. Do suspend them.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 8:23 am
Facebook numbers raised at Sterne Agee SEP 09, 2013 | 8:14 AM EDT Shares of FB now seen reaching $50, Sterne Agee said. Estimates also increased on conitnued success of mobile. Buy rating
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 9:03 am
@eryba1: When FB first broke out at the end of July there were some comments (from you?) about waiting for a pullback to 34-35 in anticipation of adding to positions. The market did not cooperate and talk is now of $50. What are your thoughts on how to play FB in the short term? Where do you see FB going from here? If $50 soon, what then? I have common with average cost <$30 and some short puts at $32 and $36. Total FB (excluding the puts) is about 10% of portfolio.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 9:11 am
@Olivepetunia: Great question- A perfect example of why one needs to stay flexible and never draw a line in the sand. When things change U must adapt vs stay rigid otherwise U can lose out. I did but at 39 again and went to 41ish. the stock then corrected to 36 a 10% pullback and then I added again. Now I can see it running to 48-50 range after some consolidating. It really depends on the market from here I think only because FB has run A LOT. If Syria fed tapering budget battle gets some clarity markets can see a new leg higher and then well see how the stock performs. Oct-Dec are the best months of the year for the averages. tech is outperforming and so 58-60 is not crazy but that will entail another great quarter of earnings in the middle. I dont know about U guys but I am using FB A
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 9:14 am
I dont know about U guys but I am using FB a lot- communicating with friends and family around the world. Gifting from it. Its a lot of fun so easy to use and enjoyable
vmontes
September 9, 2013 – 9:15 am
Apple up 1.6% premarket woohoo!!! (Bought Nov calls last week)
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 9:16 am
@vmontes: new products this week, colors plus talk of up to 6″ iphone screen in the works
vmontes
September 9, 2013 – 9:19 am
@eryba1: I was expecting a rise starting towards the end of last week not a day before. Hopefully it wont sell out after the launch
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 9:20 am
@vmontes: it ranped from 450-505 after Ichan tweet about his investment and talk with cook over div boost and share buyback talk
vmontes
September 9, 2013 – 9:22 am
@eryba1: Yes but that was a while ago, I bought when it was at 496 last week.
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 9:27 am
@eryba1: Not sure I completely understand your answer. I did but at 39 again and went to 41ish…(1) (what did you do at 39? Change your expectation?); How would you play it from here?
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 9:30 am
I am VERY long FB here. Stock ran to 41ish then pulled back to 36 and since then has been on a great run.
vmontes
September 9, 2013 – 9:37 am
Anyone think Apple will sell off tomorrow after the launch of their new products?
rzepeda
September 9, 2013 – 9:38 am
I am hoping AAPL will sell off a bit. I want to add to my position.
fly fishin
September 9, 2013 – 10:05 am
FIO jump this morning, anyone know why? I think Cody said something about it recently as well.
888
September 9, 2013 – 10:34 am
@fly fishin: M&A rumours again… WDC purchase Verident
888
September 9, 2013 – 10:35 am
I’ve seen FIO pop several times on M&A rumours only to drop even further.. becareful
MikeM
September 9, 2013 – 11:57 am
@888: I agree with you 888 on FIO. If an M&A actually happened this time around, though, this could be a very good comeback story with the stock starting from its lows.
vmontes
September 9, 2013 – 12:00 pm
I’m glad to see Apple holding that 1.5% gain today
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 12:08 pm
FWIW – Just doing some minor portfolio maintenance and trimming some names that have RUN quite a bit.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 1:08 pm
cody: I see your alert and trimming of FB. Do you see your GOLD position as an added hedge against this potential military action in Syria?
Cody
September 9, 2013 – 1:13 pm
@eryba1: Yes, gold and silver are good hedges on the war, though I don’t own them for that reason.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 1:19 pm
@Cody: I understand U own the physical metals for another purpose / reason. I feel like hedging myself and by trimming that is the best way I feel comfortable and the gold is the actual hedge even though we bought it for a diff purpose all together.
ebdavids
September 9, 2013 – 1:21 pm
@Cody — good to see you here. Can you explain, re SPY, the difference between Dec 21 and Dec 31q puts? Any difference other than 10 days?
jahmon
September 9, 2013 – 1:24 pm
Getting absolutely crushed on the WAGE put…Wish Cody had been in the chat room end of last week like he said he would and offered some advice…
ebdavids
September 9, 2013 – 1:26 pm
@eryba1: Whoops — Cody here and gone. Can you possibly answer my question about those SPY puts?
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 1:27 pm
options is his forte i dont use options. Wish I could help.
ebdavids
September 9, 2013 – 1:27 pm
That’s OK, thanks anyway.
ebdavids
September 9, 2013 – 1:42 pm
@eryba1: Do you have any thoughts/idea what’s happening with WAGE?
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 1:45 pm
@ebdavids: never put it on my screen. I have been concentrating on my winners CIEN FB AMZN AAPL etc etc and they have been extremely productive that is why I am selling some today and then codys alert doing the same with his FB on the ever of Obama speech to nation for action on Syria and at NEW all time hi’s in portfolios so its the wise choice to do for for me and my investors.
ebdavids
September 9, 2013 – 1:47 pm
Yep, that makes all kinds of sense, and I’m doing same to the extent possible. (Not holding a lot of stocks at all-time highs.)
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 1:49 pm
@jahmon: Read weekly chat last week; I remember him saying he did not like the action in WAGE – – “I’ve barely got a toehold in the WAGE put position so far and frankly, I don’t like the action today…it looks like somebody big is still building a position here which would and could take the chart to $50. I’ll likely buy more WAGE puts sometime soon on strength like today’s but not today. – – I’m not liking the WAGE action for us shorts here. I’d be patient and definitely would want more than 2 weeks’ time to play it out.” Based on that I sold my WAGE puts immediately.
doug.sekula
September 9, 2013 – 2:02 pm
@eryba1: Took all my profits from all positions, what are you buying as a hedge with this syria turbulance?
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 2:04 pm
@Cody: Regarding your trade alert today: What are your thoughts/suggestions regarding the size (relative to one’s portfolio) and timing (how long to hold) for a position in SPY puts? It has to be a sizeable investment to have a meaningful impact on a downturn. Almost sounds/feels like a short term trimming speculation rather than a meaningful hedge on your overall portfolio.
doug.sekula
September 9, 2013 – 2:04 pm
For these times, VXX is gettingcheap.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 2:10 pm
@ebdavids: no the stocks are not at all time high’s, the portfolios are, stocks FAR from it but by selling when overbought conditions and S&P 1700 levels and rebuying during corrections in amzn, fslr cien, fb,goog and others it has been very productive
jahmon
September 9, 2013 – 2:14 pm
@olivepetunia Thanks. I saw that too but he didn’t sell his puts which confused me.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 2:20 pm
@doug.sekula: we all dont know what to expect from fed tapering, budget talks, syria action or not? Do we get retest to S&p 1625? or is this move today the real thing and a breakout to test old high’s on S&p 1710 ish? Lets watch and see. For me trimming here makes too much sense. locking in gains and protecting portfolio and still have positions to take the accounts higher. worst case I buy a bit higher and consider it the insurance premium I had to pay, if all settles ok with 3 outstanding issues, if a decline ensues then it will surely have paid off to trim at these levels market up 165 tech leading up 1.3% so far
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 2:32 pm
@jahmon: There were many posts last year trying to figure size of Cody’s portfolio and positions. He always said to trade to your own needs so I try to adapt Cody’s actions to my own situation. This may be a very small position for him and he may have other reasons/distractions for what he does. He also has a large community watching – second guessing – and wanting an explanation for everything he does. Bottom line for me was that I didn’t think the risk/reward was worth it.
jahmon
September 9, 2013 – 2:39 pm
@Olivepetunia Yep…I’m realizing that I’m still green on options and need a little more help/guidance that I thought I was going to receive from Cody but in reality, he’s mostly throwing ideas out there. I’ve made money and lost money here. For the last month I decided that if I really wanted to give Cody a chance then I should really follow all of his trades and not pick and choose. I’ve taken a big options beatdown over the last month by doing this, with the exception of the VIX trade.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 2:41 pm
reading some TA postings there MAY be some S&p resistance at 1674 and upside targets of 1726. Lets see how it all plays out in Sept the unkindest month of the year to the market. Again on a stock by stock basis Codys picks have TRULY outperformed the markets by a LONG SHOT.
Olivepetunia
September 9, 2013 – 3:24 pm
@jahmon: I got crushed last year in AAPL by chasing June 2013 calls that I should never have bought. Another thing to remember is that CODY has been at this a long time and his actions today also reflect the long term impact of his overall positions. When you have AAPL from around $7 and GOOG from its original IPO ($85?) you can afford to take actions that many of us cannot. You will never be able to mirror CODY and it’s not such a bad idea to pick and choose those of his ideas that are most suitable to you. As Cody says you have to wait for your pitch and take what the market gives you. That doesn’t necessarily mean wait for Cody’s pitch.
msamuels2000
September 9, 2013 – 4:05 pm
Anyone peeking at TSLA puts as a higher risk hedge than the SPY puts? It seems the high flyers could fall further, faster in a crisis. Very pricey though. FWIW, being long BIDU has been a pretty good hedge for me over the past few years as it often moves independent of SPY
jahmon
September 9, 2013 – 6:14 pm
@Olivepetunia Thank you. That was a wise and helpful perspective.
eryba1
September 9, 2013 – 6:58 pm
1 Obstacle DOWN? Syria now saying thru russian backed proposal to put their Chemical weapons in hands of international hands. Obama says this is acceptable. Obama speaks to the nation tomorrow tonight. Was the reason the market which was stuck at + 100 today bumped higher to + 160 at one point? Futures jumped higher this evening as a result as well. We are no longer oversold, fearful or overly bearish % on the meters and charts
Czagazu
September 9, 2013 – 8:57 pm
Hi, what was Cody’s latest apple trade. I’ve been looking over the trade alerts and don’t see any. I just joined
seanssocal
September 9, 2013 – 9:18 pm
@eryba1: Well; What I see is S&P breaking through overhead resistance, even with the
seanssocal
September 9, 2013 – 9:24 pm
wall of worry we have, seems conflicting like you were saying, Head Fake? I do like what I see, if it does hold, bullish or an excellent contrarian indicator?
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:06 am
@seanssocal: Very possible we break 1674 gap and then head to that 1726 target technicians are talking about but maybe not in a straight line ofcourse. News now hitting the wires that SYRIA is accepting Russians plan to put itc chemical weapons in the hands of the international community. This is a drama who can trust whom, did they give it all up, does this make it acceptable to the USA who wanted to attack to retaliate on the chemical attack on its own people, This changes that? so now the USA wanted to attack to punish Syria and simply saying U will give up weapons makes it all better? the attack on their own people didnt happen? Drama!!
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:12 am
@seanssocal: Wall of worry – That is right but as I have said from the beginning. No one see each others porfiolio, positions, size, diversity etc we all need to do whats best for our portfolios and lives. manage our hard earned gains wisely. I would love to see the S&P get to 1725 range but where I am now its wise for me to take some off. I am still quite long but just less so now. We had STRONG china data overnight and now this Syria news and our futures are very strong this morning and the german market = DAX is up 2%. Lets watch and see what happens and just be prepared. Its always wise to trim some on the way up after I was buying on the declines in Amzn goog CIEN FSLR etc etc. U cant have a long car ride with no gas money.
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:13 am
I needed some gas money to put in my pocket by trimming my very long portfolio to refill on the bump in the road or decline.That is a MUST for me.
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:34 am
thats to refill on the NEXT bump in the road / decline.
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:37 am
someone here asked why FIo was popping from 11 to 13-14: Seagate May Make a Move for Fusion io
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:37 am
Fusion-io upgraded at Piper SEP 10, 2013 | 7:50 AM EDT FIO was upgraded to Overweight, Piper Jaffray said. $17 price target. PCIe flash market is rapidly expanding.
999
September 10, 2013 – 8:39 am
@eryba1: would you enter into duo at these levels after what happened before?
999
September 10, 2013 – 8:39 am
Fio
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:40 am
@999: Not at all
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:40 am
@999: I wnat winning performing stocks that may have been beaten down a bit not serial disapointers which is what FIO is just one look at its stock chart screams of that
999
September 10, 2013 – 8:41 am
That’s consistent with me as well.. I still remember the days when Fio was rated 9!
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:41 am
@999: these days its not on my screen and deserves a minus sign in front of that 9
999
September 10, 2013 – 8:43 am
Yeah totally agree.. I lost a chunk of my hardearned cash on fio
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:49 am
@999: yes but stocks like CIEN FB AAPL have more than made up for FIO and then some
eryba1
September 10, 2013 – 8:50 am
Let the winners ride and add on pullbacks lets the losers fall by the wayside. our hard earning money needs to work for us not against
999
September 10, 2013 – 8:51 am
Unfortunately my cost basis for aapl is at 580.. still a long way to go!
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 9:17 am
Good time to add some more gold
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 9:18 am
???
rkumar
September 10, 2013 – 9:58 am
cree upgrade here com es 60
Golfcar101
September 10, 2013 – 10:31 am
seen these takeover talks on fio time after time
jahmon
September 10, 2013 – 11:04 am
Anyone doubling down on spy puts?
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 11:46 am
@jahmon: nope – letting these ride
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 11:57 am
Doubled down on VXX yesterday.
jakef1111
September 10, 2013 – 11:57 am
3d stocks have almost all corrected time to add
jakef1111
September 10, 2013 – 11:59 am
Thinkin of some aapl puts for the immediate reaction but not ready to gamble
Cody
September 10, 2013 – 12:17 pm
@jakef1111: I’d rather bet long than short on AAPL for the next four hours…lots of expectation of a sell-off after the product announcements. Flip it?
zagazu
September 10, 2013 – 12:58 pm
What was Cody’s trade on apple?
zagazu
September 10, 2013 – 12:59 pm
whether common or options I can’t seem to find the trade on the archives.
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 12:59 pm
@doug.sekula: I realize it is short term thinking here, but with the latest downplay in Syria do you feel yet today that your VXX buy yesterday was good or were you buying the VXX primarily based on potential downward market reaction to Syria conflict?
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 1:08 pm
@Cody: Cody, As a follow up to recent WAGE puts, your current thoughts on WAGE with its recent uptrend?
Cody
September 10, 2013 – 1:16 pm
@MikeM: Patience on WAGE here. I think maybe above $50 it’ll be time to buy some longer-dated puts.
jahmon
September 10, 2013 – 1:17 pm
Did you just eat your previous WAGE put? Mine is toast as I didn’t see you sell on Friday and we got dusted yesterday.
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 1:17 pm
C’mon Apple announce your partnership with China Mobile!
(fingers crossed)
Cody
September 10, 2013 – 1:19 pm
@jahmon: Still holding my first put purchase on WAGE which were the Septs, but they’re still on my sheets. I haven’t barely started building it tho.
Alistair
September 10, 2013 – 1:20 pm
AAPL . IMO – Emotions, rather than rational thinking will cause any short-term swings – I’m long! We will not really know how good the new i Phone is for at least a few days or so after various techy people outside of Apple have looked at it and then after a few weeks when the initial demand from customers can be assessed.
Cody
September 10, 2013 – 1:21 pm
@Alistair: Amen.
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 1:21 pm
@Cody: Thanks Cody regarding your WAGE response
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 1:23 pm
Unfortunately or fortunately I have Apple calls that I bought for $15.30 that expire in Nov their are priced at $17.20 now so I can’t wait a couple of months to see how it plays out
Alistair
September 10, 2013 – 1:26 pm
@vmontes: You could always sell what you have and use the proceeds to buy some further out calls
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 1:28 pm
@Alistair: yes I agree I’m doing the math now….
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 1:56 pm
@MikeM: yes with this potential “war” I have been loading up on VXX, waiting for a pop. Been buying on the way down. Thinking on buying another “tranche”.
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 1:57 pm
took big profits on FB and CIEN.
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 2:00 pm
White House press conference tonight @ 2100 Eastern time on Syria.
jahmon
September 10, 2013 – 2:05 pm
Cody, two questions…last tranche of VIX under water…thoughts there? Also u still think jan $32 gdx calls an ok bet?
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 2:18 pm
@doug.sekula: OK on VXX. I think this Syria “resolution” will bolster investor confidence and the market in the short term so I am going to see what develops over the next couple days before I do a VXX tranche.
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 2:23 pm
@MikeM: you are prob right.:
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 2:28 pm
@Cody: Morning. Cody. Just to confirm re WAGE: I’m holding October puts at $40, Novembers @ $45. Both in rotten shape right now. You would recommend holding onto them? Reason i ask: You’re saying puts look good again above $50? Comment on my holdings?
seanssocal
September 10, 2013 – 2:36 pm
@Cody: Hey Cody, Hows It? (Scout Master!) with the recent weakness, do you see good reason to add, or should we be waiting for capitulation or a flush so to speak? before adding, or should just keep powder dry for now? thanks
seanssocal
September 10, 2013 – 2:37 pm
@Cody; oops , reffering to ssys,xone,ddd etc,
seanssocal
September 10, 2013 – 2:38 pm
@Cody: Not sure if I hit the wrong button, referring to the 3d printers
drefleury
September 10, 2013 – 2:39 pm
What’s with the sell-off in AAPL? Nothing groundbreaking enough?
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 2:43 pm
@drefleury: The pricing on the new 5S was higher than expected but will improve margins. They didn’t announce that China Mobile was on board but JP Morgan analyst just spoke on CNBC that he is 99% confident they will announce it at the Beijin presentation later today.
jakef1111
September 10, 2013 – 2:43 pm
@Cody: i bought some low cost weekly put made a buck and sold em total gambling then bought some more april 2014 550 mini options long street is sleeping on estimates for the low cost iphone… As long as the margins r good on it it will be huge
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 2:46 pm
I personally think getting a brand new iphone for just $99 with new contract is going to be huge for Apple bc most people like myself put covers on them anyways. No need for the fancy metal.
jahmon
September 10, 2013 – 3:06 pm
Thoughts on the ishow today?
drefleury
September 10, 2013 – 3:31 pm
@vmontes: Tim Cook better get on the plane! lol
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 3:33 pm
@drefleury: I could care less if he attends, heck I would take a tweet from his house saying China Mobile is on board!
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 3:36 pm
Agree on Cook. My (personal, uneducated) theory is that Apple has lost its glimmer as a “wow,” leading-edge tech company, so even some nifty-looking improvements to basically the same product stable will NOT turn the market on. Obviously there are no ground-breaking products here…and if, ultimately, China sales (or whatever) will zip up their bottom line…well, then, the market can wait and see. I bet even a bigger phone to go head-to-head with competition wouldn’t have wowed anybody. So far, it’s just incremental improvements. Cody’s still believing in the architecture and platform that’ll hold oeioke — but that’s not truye new growth — it’s retention. Goodbye, Tim. Hello (maybe) personal computing — but that’ll be “Apple – last with another first” too, I fear. (M
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 3:37 pm
*oeioke = people!
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 3:38 pm
I don’t know if Cook even knows how to use Twitter!
vmontes
September 10, 2013 – 3:41 pm
I know what will definitely make Apple stock pop…………replacing Cook with an innovator like Elon Musk!!
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 4:01 pm
@doug.sekula: I joined you and tranched into VXX.
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 4:37 pm
@MikeM: Islamist countries never keep promises and with Russia acting as mediator, we are in for plenty of bumps. They are already talking about the deal tied to a commitment from the United States that we will not intervene. Those VIX calls are going to be fine. I’ll be looking to add in the am
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 4:45 pm
@msamuels2000: Not sure it’s just Islamist countries that don’t keep promises, or aren’t fair and square on chemical warfare issues (check out us and the use of depleted uranium ammunition in Iraq/Afghanistan — a subject we evade), but regardless, I think you’re right on the VIX thing. Funny how we all, within limits, act differently politically and with our investments!
MikeM
September 10, 2013 – 4:51 pm
@msamuels2000: Thanks. My thoughts exactly so that’s why I decided to tranche in earlier than I was going to.
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 4:55 pm
I actually had a friend — shouldn’t call him that; an acquaintance — who a few years ago told me he was going to research exactly who MADE the despicable poison gases and chemicals so he could invest THERE. Hope he never followed up. Kinda the opposite of socially responsible investing…and despicable. (People made fortunes on Dow during Viet Nam. Bleh.)
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 5:18 pm
@ebdavids: probably should have phrased it “countries run by Islamist Dictators” so as not to cast so wide a net or maybe the correct phrasing would be “politicians from anywhere never keep their promises”. Either way I’m jumping on some more VIX tomorrow
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 5:21 pm
I like the “politicians” usage. Especially the “from anywhere” part. If you have a sec, can you ‘splain me a little more on VIX vs. VXX and the nature of tomorrow’s buy you’re making?
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 5:35 pm
@ebdavids: The underlying symbol seems to change based on the online broker. On TD Ameritrade I’m buying calls on the symbol $VIX.X which is officially listed as “CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX S&P 500”
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 5:37 pm
Thank you. Near-term or far-out calls? Strike?I’d expect the volatility to hit in the relatively near term if it’s related to the on-again/off-again Syria thing.
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 5:59 pm
@ebdavids: I’m probably going to look at Oct and Nov. I already have some Sept. Small bets since I jumped in on the SPY short and puts
ebdavids
September 10, 2013 – 6:02 pm
thks.
msamuels2000
September 10, 2013 – 6:04 pm
This is what I was hoping to see at the Apple event: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGyx7im22qE
doug.sekula
September 10, 2013 – 9:18 pm
VXX is gonna get slammed tomorrow!
JeffDaniel
September 10, 2013 – 11:07 pm
Has Apple lost it?
seanssocal
September 11, 2013 – 7:17 am
@eryba1:AAPL, Swing and a Miss!? or buying opportunity?
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 7:18 am
@seanssocal: for me as I trimmed at 506 its a swing, just need to see where it settles out a bit will be patient I think
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 7:25 am
@seanssocal: many wanted to hear CHINA mobile deal announced. As a BIG Iphone fan I love the 5S colors, thumb scanner, ability to buy by scanning thumb, enhanced hardware upgrades but not sure I will buy unless my carrier makes it easy to do so. I would like that larger screen device.
seanssocal
September 11, 2013 – 7:29 am
@eryba1: Larger screen would appear a no brainer, Is the China mobile deal , Done? If so why not announce, and whats with the smaller carriers?
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 8:19 am
@seanssocal: deal in the works street wanted that NEWS. I like apple at 475 or lower I may buy some in the pre market- Will see trying to be patient and see where it stabalizes.
seanssocal
September 11, 2013 – 8:21 am
@eryba1: Agreed
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 8:24 am
also looking to add to GLD at these levels 130-131 handle
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 8:27 am
3 Apple DOWNGRADES this morning- Apple downgraded at Credit Suisse SEP 11, 2013 | 8:18 AM EDT AAPL was downgraded from Outperform to Neutral, Credit Suisse said. $525 price target. Company is limiting its potential by ignoring the lower end of the market. AAPLBearish Apple downgraded at BofA/Merrill SEP 11, 2013 | 8:12 AM EDT AAPL was downgraded to Neutral, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. $520 price target. iPhone announcements were a disappointment and the company lacks catalysts. AAPLBearish Apple downgraded at UBS SEP 11, 2013 | 8:14 AM EDT AAPL was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, UBS said. $520 price target. Company lacks strength in key markets, like China.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:04 am
cody: whats your take on the march of downgrades on apple? No china mobile deal news? 2 new phones? Thanks I am looking to buy on this decline after selling 500+ a few days ago.
888
September 11, 2013 – 9:15 am
Apple is not listening hard enough… where is the larger screen device??? Apple is really stubborn!
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:16 am
From a TA analyst- Now we need to see if some levels hold… $466-$472 is a big area that needs to hold for this stock to stay relevant.. Some wanted a IWatch yesterday as one more thing it didn’t happen. I wonder if we break to 450 the level where Ichan tweeted he had a big holding and spoke to Cook.
888
September 11, 2013 – 9:17 am
apple is pre-trading at 471.. how low get it go?
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:18 am
read post above
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:20 am
from the same TA guy on the S&P ETF -SPY- How we digest will give us clues on the the market speed. $168.26 would be Very impressive to hold. $166.92 is a nice spot to buy the dip if we see it. That’s the area the bulls would want to hold to keep this new uptrend in tact. Lots of nice individual stock action
charlyga
September 11, 2013 – 9:23 am
In 2 days Apple lost all the social capital as much as Yahoo…
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:24 am
@charlyga: thats why it NEEDs to BUY NFLX and YELP, BOTH PERFECT FITS video and social- DEAL DONE new market leader and the stock will be on a HUGE march back to make new all time hi’s
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 9:29 am
Yelp 4B market cap and NFLX 18B buy both spend 25-30B which is LESS than stock buy back program I believe was 50 Billion and U will have the # 1 company on the planet, cloud, Video, Social Just needs the push to do so. Apple is running like its not publicly traded and a private company doing its own fun cool thing. That would be fine but investors want the Social, Video ad cool hardware / software for the cloud.
jakef1111
September 11, 2013 – 10:57 am
This is the typical sell off of the weak hands…. Aapls phone wasnt priced cheap enough was the reason behind the downgrades…. Stick to the game plan. Dnt forget expectations are low if the price after subs of the new phone makes it easier to buy in china they will move a lot of units same with japan and india… Wall st is short sighted lets not be the same way
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 11:45 am
AAPL phone components-wise — and generally phone sales-wise — anybody have a sense of how the various new chips affect INTL? Is that why it’s soft today?
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 11:55 am
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VIX — $14.05
jahmon
September 11, 2013 – 12:12 pm
Anyone buying VIX and if so what date and strike price?
jahmon
September 11, 2013 – 12:13 pm
Amen jake
MikeM
September 11, 2013 – 12:16 pm
Wow. Look at FIO go.
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 12:30 pm
Comment from one of many AAPL mini-analyses on SA (claims it’s a margin play, not a cheap-for-China one): “Let me preface this with the fact that I firmly believe that Apple (AAPL) is an excellent company that puts out superb products. I’m impressed with the company’s in-house silicon design teams, and I can certainly see why many, back in the “Apple $1000” days, would frequently refer to Apple’s products as “works of art”. However, one thing everybody needs to understand that there are precisely two ways to make money off of “well known” Apple product launches: Buy CALLS about a week before the event and then unload them a day or so before the actual announcement Buy PUTS the day before the announcement (or on the day of the announcement) and ride the inevitable “sell the new
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 12:40 pm
Were it as simple as that!
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 12:43 pm
My luck, I do it — and the next product announcement, Elon Musk walks out as the new CEO!
JeffDaniel
September 11, 2013 – 12:45 pm
I am very disappointed that Apple did not offer a larger display for the new phone. Now another year to wait. Apple is behind badly under Tim Cook. Sad to see.
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 12:47 pm
We’ll see what Ichan and the others think.
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 12:48 pm
I love Elan’s idea about buying Netflix, etc.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 12:57 pm
@ebdavids: It is an idea that has floated around for a few months now. Wish I could take credit but the $$ is there apple borrowed at such low rates to do the buyback. As for APPLE I added common long shares today in it and the GLD
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 12:57 pm
I am rooting for a pullback though to add NFLX, FSLR, AMZN,FB etc
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 1:44 pm
@eryba1: Based on his post today it seems as though Cody has completely checked out until tomorrow. Does that mean no chat today?
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 1:45 pm
Respecting Cody’s feelings
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:45 pm
@Olivepetunia: yes e-mail just arrived in my inbox confirming what U just alluded to. Tom 2pm
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 1:46 pm
OK; thanks.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:46 pm
u should see if sortly as well chat postponed until tomorrow
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 1:46 pm
@Olivepetunia: I stopped typing this very second and sent this out. It is BIZARRE how we keep shadowing each other with the same comments at the same time. (I, of course, was going to ask the same question — at the same moment!)
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 1:47 pm
@ebdavids: Thankfully I don’t resemble your profile picture in the least.
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 1:47 pm
Yeah, but you gotta admit — for a pooch, he’s the cutest.
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 1:48 pm
@ebdavids: My family would disagree; they think ours is.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:49 pm
anyone adding or trimming anything here? FB keeps running, goog doing OK fslr still going sndk nice move from W btm, 54
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 1:51 pm
@eryba1: Buying pressure in FB feels as relentless as the selling pressure in AAPL.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:55 pm
@Olivepetunia: yes sir!!!
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:56 pm
momentum cuts both ways one has it the other doesnt. one had growth 50 % PLUS the other doenst YET. Need WOW product iwatch, china mobile deal, larger screen phone new ipad WOW devices TV. But if it buys YELP of NFLX forget it stock is 700 by years end if not more IMHO
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 1:57 pm
@Olivepetunia: I am adding what I sold of apple 2 days ago and then some common long shares
jahmon
September 11, 2013 – 2:05 pm
I added apple common and April calls
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 2:12 pm
I understand the logic/hop of getting back into AAPL at some pojnt — but is it not too soon? I’m waiting a couple of days to see how the news sinks in. i recall after AAPL’s last “crash” from ~700 and high 600s how it dribbled down for a bit. What’s here — right now, i mean — to cause people to get back in yet? (Unless they’re all “early adopters” like you.) Good luck, though.
ebdavids
September 11, 2013 – 2:12 pm
hop=hope
Nels
September 11, 2013 – 2:16 pm
Having been burned on FIO like many others here, anyone swinging for the downside? I picked up a bunch of puts for Sept, expecting this 50% 3-day pump to soon dump. Anyone else?
MikeM
September 11, 2013 – 2:29 pm
@Nels: Thought about it, but could be very risky either way. If the buyout speculation pans out and estimates of buyout happen at $22 – $23 this time the trade could go south quickly. I am curious, though, on Cody’s thoughts on this one.
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 2:33 pm
@Nels: Which strike did you do? Octobers cost more but the extra time might be worth it.
Nels
September 11, 2013 – 3:32 pm
I got a couple 14s, and a slew of 12s. Sept 21s because I figure if there isn’t any type of m/a announcement before the end of the week or top half of next, this run up will implode on itself.
eryba1
September 11, 2013 – 4:44 pm
This morning From an astute investor / manager I like to read his stuff: “I also added a little Facebook (F
on a shallow pullback. That is one I want to build as I think it has substantial upside longer-term, but in the short term an interview with CEO Mark Zuckerberg may serve as a catalyst for a flip.
Olivepetunia
September 11, 2013 – 5:12 pm
@eryba1: What does this mean?? Is there a specific interview scheduled that might be a concern? Or a general wariness about some unanticipated statement that might come out of some interview that could spook the market or serve to act as a justification for taking profits (everyone trying to take profits at the same time).
jahmon
September 11, 2013 – 6:19 pm
Icahn bought more Apple, calling it a “no brainer”…Stock up after hours
