Tax cut effect on markets, Flynn Blackswan potential, reducing positions & more
Here’s the transcript from last week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A Chat.
Q. Cody, now that the tax cut is going to happen for corporations, how will it affect our holdings? Thanks.
A. You know I’ve been writing about this for weeks and months…is there something more I can add? It’s basically bullish for the long-term but I expect a sell-the-news reaction of a pullback here for the near-term.
Q. Flynn is set to testify against Trump. Will this trigger a Black Swan event? The market is tanking on the headline.
A. I don’t think Flynn/Russia/Trump will escalate to the point where they become a “Black Swan” type event, but it’s certainly possible. And that’s a good reason to have bought some puts and done some hedging yesterday!
Q. Our IWM puts are up 25-40%! Should I sell?!
A. You might sell a tiny fraction of your puts to lock in some profits, but I’m planning to hold most of them for a bit longer.
Q. Cody would you think it wise to reduce positions a bit in case the rotation out of tech stocks intensifies? Take a bit off the top?
A. Yes, I do. Note that I sold my SNAP and LGFA and LGFB recently and that I also bought some IWM puts.
Q. Thanks, of course, for the $IWM put alert. Unfortunately, facing a zany press of biz EOD yesterday and this morning, I wasn’t able to buy as many puts as I wanted. My Q to you, Is it too late to add to these today, even with the 20-30% jump, or is this just pure chasing at this point? On the theory that the market dip was due to the Flynn congressional and not (yet) to passage of the tax legislation, is there still enough downward play facing us based on your thesis from yesterday? Thanks.
A. Great question and I like how you framed the part about Flynn being the catalyst vs the tax legislation being the catalyst. Either way, I do think it’s wise to have some puts and if you’re feeling like you didn’t buy enough of them yesterday, I don’t see a problem nibbling a bit more of them here.
Subscriber follow-up: I was thinking more about the biggies, but I guess ‘yes is yes’ no matter what stock we are talking about.
A. Yes, I do think it’s wise to trim some of the biggies, too. I’ve trimmed them in recent weeks.
Q. Imagine you’re me please. I’ve got twin 14 year olds and have $10,000 to deposit by the end of the year into their 529 which offers me a few mediocre Vanguard mutual fund options. I have two questions for you, “feet to the fire.” First, would you wait to invest it and see if we get a correction before the end of the year? Second, would you skip the 529 altogether and put it in a taxable account in our revolution stocks or put it somewhere else? I get about a 10% tax break on it in New York State by putting it in the 529. You’re expertise is always appreciated. Thanks!
A. For the first part of your question, I would suggest buying half of a position now and then put the rest to work in six months or so. You can leave part of the money in cash or a money market or something, I’m sure, if you put it into the 529. As for the second part of your question, same thing holds. You know I like to tell you to do a bit of both ideas when you are torn on something like this. You could do $5k for each twin into each option– half into the 529 and half into some Revolution Investing stocks. No easy answer for you, as that’s just reality. Good luck!
Q. I know it is purely subjective but who gets in the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame this year? I never understood the Radiohead hype.
A. I had an Austrian Economist neighbor in my first apartment in NYC who was a Radiohead-head. I think of him everytime I hear the band, and I do have to say I love that album with Fake Plastic Trees. Not sure they’re influential enough in rock ‘n roll to be a Hall of Famer though. I’m actually old friends with the President of the Rock Hall but haven’t talked to him in a few years. I can’t say I ever think to myself, “I love that band since they’re in the Hall of Fame” or anything. Rock on, forever tho!
