Tesla’s computers on wheels, Cryptos, Cable vs Streaming, NBA and more
Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat, including a discussion on the future of cable, Tesla’s potential and upcoming earnings.
Q. Here is a “way too early” question for you, although it kind of isn’t. Say Bernie Sanders is next President, do you sell most stocks you own?
A. Bernie Sanders is, like Trump or Obama or Bush or Clinton, completely owned by the corporations who fund his party’s and his platform and his candidacy. He’ll do as his corporate masters tell him to do while he pretends he’s not a corporatist war-monger just like Trump, Obama, Bush and Clinton. No, I don’t care too much about which Republican Democrat Regimer wins the next election on whatever lies and propaganda they run on.
Q. Good morning Cody, last week you wrote about earnings that might get Market rally and some May-ish dated call options. What calls and strike prices would you recommend?
A. I’d look at your favorite stocks and maybe do a tiny bit of calls that are about 10% out of the money.
Q. Your feeling before earnings? Who might beat?
A. PANW, GOOG, JD, maybe TSLA. Maybe any of our stocks — always tough to gauge how the last 75 days of business went compared to an average of average analysts’ estimates.
Q. Good morning Cody. If you have to buy one stock now, which would it be?
A. TSLA.
Q. Cody – 5 to 10 yrs what kind of potential you think TSLA offers ? Thanks
A. Five years from now, TSLA has a 1% chance of going to $0, a 20% chance of being near these current levels and about a 79% chance of being up 3-10x its current price in five years.
Q. Cody – Wow you are the only believer in TSLA….everyone else has thrown in the towel on TSLA, discounting it as a car company and the potential competition it faces from other car companies who are entering the market….probably the best time to buy when everyone selling?
A. Usually the best time to buy is when everyone else is selling, but we’ll see if that works out this time with Tesla here. I don’t think of Tesla as a car company — it’s a computer/Internet/energy company that sells computers on wheels and solar panels/batteries to end-users.
Cont’d: Tesla’s cars today are like the third generation iPods. Give it ten years and the Tesla cars will be so much more functional, smarter and fully autonomous than any other car out there. Ford and GM and Volvo and BMW “cars” in ten years will be like Blackberry’s compared to today’s iPhoneX.
Q. Does Elon still have you blocked on Twitter?
A. Yes, I was trying to see his tweets this weekend while I was researching Tesla but his name won’t even come up when I search on Twitter because Elon’s still got me blocked. I’ll include a screenshot of what it looks like when I search for Elon on Twitter in the transcript. I don’t care that he’s blocked me except for the fact that I’d like to see what he’s saying!
Q. “I don’t care that he’s blocked me except for the fact that I’d like to see what he’s saying!” Lol… do you have an alternate account that isn’t blocked? Otherwise, if his account is public, you should be able to just log out and read them.
A. Good point — I guess I can just go to another browser and search for Elon Twitter.
Q. Since Elon use Twitter as TSLA press release, isn’t that against some kind of SEC rules to block anyone? I am thinking about a court ruling against Trump for blocking someone on his Twitter.
A. Eh, seems silly. Like Gambler mentioned earlier, I can just log out and see what he tweets.
Q. China is buying gold and I read about the US Petrodollar to be challenged forever! Why are you buying GLD now ? Happy spring (sent from the banks of the Mekong…which I celebrated swimming in yesterday for the first time because the current is SO strong and the river is wide.. .now dry season….so the water is down and there were so many THai people tubing and enjoying food together!!!! as part of SONGKRAN Buddhist New YEAR we are washing away the pains of the past year! Very healing. Best to your family.)
A. GLD is a good potential hedge in case the stock markets take a dive or if there’s some black swan about to hit that we’re not seeing. Other than that, I do expect that there’s a steady trend higher in gold prices because of several factors, including how the people in China and India are buying and receiving billions of dollars of physical gold reserves every year for many years now.
Q. Cody – Gold has been weak lately….do you think it’s going lower before it reverses back? Time to nibble more?
A. I don’t really have any expectation for GLD/gold near-term, but over the course of the year, I think it will be trend higher and will be a good hedge for the portfolio at some point.
Q. How far away are you from a “full position” in cryptocurrencies in the hedge fund or personal positions? Thanks.
A. I’m not sure I’d consider a “full position” in cryptos to be the same as a full position in stocks. I’m probably about 1/3 as big into my crypto positions compared to what I’d consider a “full” position.
Q. Cody – Do you think Bitcoin can continue its current momentum into 6-7k range or it might head back to 3k again?
A. Yes. LOL.
Q. Cody, Is CMG a short possibility? A PE of 112? Really? I realize they had a bad year last year and that comps will be easy this year. Is this just one of those stocks to stay away from?
A. CMG’s P/E is closer to 60 than 112, but that’s still quite high. With 30% gross margins, I’m not sure why people will pay 4x next year’s sales estimates either. A 10% topline growth rate isn’t exactly thrilling either. I wouldn’t short CMG though — it’s a good company and it could grow into this valuation someday.
Q. What do you think of TWLO, TEAM, NEWR and FIVN,
A. I like TWLO, I think TEAM and NEWR are okay and I’m not a fan of FIVN. No positions in any of them though.
Q. You were going to do a checkup on AXGN for us… have you had the time.? It is slowly coming back pps…. I have watched some youtube of the recovery a combat had made from AXGN nerve patches FANTASTIC results!
A. Yes, I’ve been doing more work on Axogen and decided to just sit tight with our existing position. Axogen’s products have saved lives and helped improve survivors’ lives.
Q. Why is EA being beaten down? Is it the competition threat?
A. It’s mostly because of concerns about the sustainability of “Loot boxes” in EA games.
Q. Cody – What’s your take on DIS announcement and is that bad news for NFLX ?
A. Nah, NFLX has won and all DIS can do is join the league as a complement to NFLX services.
Q. In 2-3 years do you believe that we will be able to get most or all of our desired TV content via having 3-5 subscription services (as opposed to paying one big, monthly cable or satellite bill)? Also, we’ll still need “cable” to stream, but do satellite providers become shorts?
A. Broadcast TV is dead. Everything we consume will be over the Internet, even live sports, in another 5-10 years. And yes, cable co’s and satellite company business models are dead too. But not sure the stocks are shorts, as so many have diversified away from dependence on broadcast.
Q. Cody, Are you still holding onto the FORM short?
A. No.
Q. Your guess for TWTR results/price move after them? Thank you Cody!
A. My guess is that Twitter will disappoint on the quarterly report again, the stock gets hit 5-10% in a few days after the report and then it gets back into a groove with the market. And that in ten years, it’s up 5x today’s quotes.
Q. Cody, still holding on to GLUU short?
A. Yes.
Q. Cody, A recent Barron’s article talked about differences between AT&T and Verizon. AT&T is diversifying beyond the phone business and VZ is investing in its network. Barron’s liked AT&T better due to the higher dividend. What do you think of these two stocks?
A. I think it’s much smarter to focus on being a great 5G company than to diversify into trying to be a satellite company and a content creation company.
Q. Cody, who you got going to (and winning) the NBA Finals?
A. Probably the Bucks. I’d say any team but the Rockets because the Beard is the greatest choke artist in the NBA.
