Tesla’s Investor Day, RIVN Earnings, GOOG v. ChatGPT, And Much More

Here’s the transcript from yesterday’s live Q&A chat:

Q. Hi Cody, what were your main take away from Tesla’s investor day? Anything you didn’t already know?

A. Mainly that Tesla is so far ahead of the competition on every level that I’m ready and willing to short most of the competitors forever. I was already short some of their competitors as you guys know but I mean, Tesla’s just going to keep pushing ahead and the other guys are still trying to figure out how to make their infotainment system upgradable over the air.

Q. It seems like TSLA has a great future and is growing incredibly. Why is it hated / shorted so much? Is this a buying opportunity?

A. Agreed. Elon’s personality can be annoying, he can be overwhelming and there’s a lot of vested interests who want Tesla to fail. I still have a big position in TSLA obviously and didn’t sell any today. It was definitely a buying opportunity to buy TSLA when I was doing so most recent tranches in late December.

Q. On GOOG – clearly the ‘Economist’ overstates the fall of Alphabet. 60% of magazine hyperbole can be contra traded successfully. When something is great, it will get worse. When something is terrible, it will get better. Reversion to the mean – buy low, sell high – all the same thing.

A. Didn’t even know that The Economist, which I used to have a subscription to for years back in the 90s had written about Google. I like the GOOG here at $90.

Q. Cody, GOOG seems to be trading like a mortally wounded stock, well that’s a tad hyperbolic but still down 40%. I would suspect the Chat excitement abates a bit as I would guess they will have a good competitor of their own. Yes, regulation seems to be an issue but am I missing something? Thanks.

A. There’s certainly risk to GOogle’s core business of sending people who “Google” something to a website and being paid for showing ads and getting clicks on those ads. But I’m pretty sure Google’s going to navigate AI and become a leader in it and monetize it well.

Q. Cody, can you do a deep dive into RKLB? The analysis on MP was good and I would love to see this for RKLB. One thing you are really good at is seeing trends before the mainstream. We are “early” in space and I feel RKLB is one of the key public companies actually launching into space consistently. Want to make this a bigger holding but would love a deeper analysis (instead of my own analysis).

A. Yup, Bryce and I are indeed doing a Deep Dive on this for us now.

Q. So RKLB has started a presence in Australia. You mentioned them as being a potential buyout. Maybe the Aussies?

A. Here’s something I wrote a month ago: We think it’s insane that Boeing and Northrop Grumman or countries such as the U.K. or Australia would not want their own orbital launch capabilities. Here’s a partial matrix of big developeed countries that don’t have domestic orbital launch capabilities.

Q. How about RKLB, TSLA, Uber long term.

A. I like all three long-term but in this order: TSLA. UBER, RKLB (much riskier than the other two).

Q. Hi Cody, thoughts on MP?

A. Bought more this morning. Just because Tesla says they aren’t going to use Rare Earths any more doesn’t mean that the 40 other EV car makers, the wind turbine makers and space companies won’t keep growing the demand for Rare Earths.

Q. what are the thoughts on INTC now that they cut dividend? Can they compete with their main competitors? What are the rough chances of succeeding and growing vs. a large cap dinosaur carving out an existence.

A. I’ve been saying they’d have to cut the dividend and they probably will have to end it before they get done building these new fabs and this whole new business line.

Q. I was looking at SNOW they are losing a lot of money.

A. Yes, for now. They have the kind of business that once it does turn profitable that it can be very profitable. The operating expenses need to be cut a bit though in coming years to really drive profits higher.

Q. Hi Cody, What do you think of GPCR Structure therapeutics in biotechnology for obesity?

A. I don’t know it very well, but I will ask my friend who’s a biotech expert about it and if he likes it, I’ll dig in and also let you know.

Q. What do you think of Sapeon the new start up for A-i that is from South Korea? What is the best way to play it?

A. I am a believer in AI but it’s currently way too overloved and overhyped. I’d err on the side of caution with most AI stocks right now. Sapeon is a privately-held start up that might also be overpromising. I think we’ll have plenty of opportunities to invest in great AI stocks in coming years, but perhaps not for the next few months until the hype dies down some.

Q. thoughts on RIVN after earnings and guidance?

A. I don’t think there’s much wrong with Rivian’s report but it wasn’t as good on the deliveries as Wall Street wanted. That said, watching that Tesla investor day last night makes me concerned that Rivian’s second place standing is always going to be second place. From a valuation perspective, I think Rivian’s compelling enough here that I’ll hold a small position it and will look to add to it at $12 or so if it gets there. Easy does it as usual.

Q. Heard where chat gpt is selling cars in the metaverse via Microsoft? No headset required. Kia and Fiat maybe. Could META be falling behind?

A. ChatGPT is selling cars in the metaverse? What? I’m not sure what you’re saying.

Q. anybody selling some puts on BAC?

A. I’m still holding most of my BAC puts but I do trim them sometimes on days like today when it’s down big.

Q. I know IBM is not a typical Cody stock, but….they do have some capability in AI (Watson, etc.), they are getting some traction in their hybrid cloud, etc. and they pay a ~5% dividend.

A. Watson’s old school AI and I don’t think IBM can compete with ChatGPT, Google, Softee, Meta on real AI. I think IBM would do well to scrap Watson and start their AI business over from scratch.

Q. What do you think of Indie Semiconductor $indi?

A. I don’t know it but will take a look.

Q. What are your thoughts on wkhs?

A. If it ever rallies back towards $10, I’d short it again. Here’s what I wrote back in 2020 when it was 10x higher than today’s quote: “The non-Tesla electric vehicle stocks like NKLA, WKHS, PLUG and so many other stocks in other sectors too look like to me like they’re going to crash at some point, probably sooner rather than later.”

Q. I’m going back through trade alerts and finding I’ve missed several over the past year. It would be very helpful to have an ongoing list of current positions without having to wait for the numerical rankings that come in batches from time to time, which I do appreciate very much! thanks!

A. We’ll send out a Where I’d Buy More list with the transcript today.

Q. I was wondering how many stocks do you hold in your personal account?

A. Usually between 20-25. About that many right now too.

Q. I was traveling and hence could not send this note earlier! I was shocked to see this message given your fitness and activity levels. But I am glad you caught it in time and pray for your good health!

A. Thank you, I’m doing fine!

That’s a wrap! Thanks all!