The Ultimate Tesla Book (And A Note About My Upcoming TV Appearance)

I plan to get us a few more of these over the next 20 years.

First, we wanted to let you know that while we’ll be in NYC next week, I’ll be on Fox Business this coming Tuesday (2/27) at 2pm ET or so on my old friend, Charles Payne’s, show.

(And don’t forget that if you’re in the NYC area to try to join us for a “Drinks with Subscribers” on Wednesday (2/28/24) at 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm at the Tommy Bahama Restaurant located at 551 5th Ave Suite 101, New York, NY 10176.)

With Nvidia (NVDA) passing the $800 mark today, we now have our third 100-bagger for Trading With Cody subscribers as NVDA joins Apple (which has become a 900-bagger) and Bitcoin (which has become a 280-bagger) as investments that have gone up more than 100X. And we have a treat for you all which outlines how one of our current names could become a 100-bagger too.

We are publishing a new book called “The Ultimate Tesla Book (with the Ultimate Tesla Model) on Amazon this weekend. And as always, we share it with you dear Trading With Cody subscribers for free.

You can download The Ultimate Tesla Book here. And Trading With Cody subscribers have exclusive access to the complete Ultimate Tesla Model.

In tandem with the Ultimate Tesla Book and Model, we’ve also created The Ultimate TSLA GPT which can answer any questions you have about the book or model.

Here are the first few pages from the book to whet your appetite.

Introduction

A $28 trillion valuation by the year 2040. That’s what Tesla could achieve if everything goes extremely well for Elon Musk’s most valuable company. As you might already know, Tesla does a lot more than just build electric cars (a product that was first invented in 1888, by the way). In fact, Tesla’s other businesses are what could make it a $28 trillion company in our view; most importantly, its full self-driving (FSD) platform, its Dojo AI, and the Optimus Robot. These products have the potential to Revolutionize human civilization as we know it, and the total addressable market (TAM) for such products is quite possibly larger than most people can even fathom.

One of the biggest mistakes we’ve made over the years is that we underestimate just how successful, huge, and profitable our investments in the most Revolutionary companies on the planet could be. Despite investing and holding onto our shares in Apple since the stock was at a split-adjusted 20 cents per share in 2003, Google on the day of its IPO in 2004, Nvidia at a split-adjusted $8 per share in 2017, bitcoin at $100 in 2013 and a few other assets that have indeed changed the world and created trillion dollar market places as we expected they might — we still didn’t dream big enough in our long-term predictions and models.

To be clear at the outset, we are not saying that Tesla will achieve a $28 trillion valuation by the year 2040 or that everything in this book will work out the way we have predicted here. Rather, we wanted to get an idea of the ultimate version of itself that Tesla could be in the long run. The point of this book is not to show what Tesla will do, it’s to show what Tesla could do. Obviously, not every single aspect of Tesla’s business will be wildly successful simultaneously.

What we intend to demonstrate with this model, rather, is that Tesla has multiple Trillion Dollar Kickers (as we like to call them) that have the potential to dramatically increase shareholder value if any of them work out. As mentioned, we think Tesla could have a $28 trillion market cap potentially, but even if only 20% of what we predict comes true, then Tesla would still have a $5.6 trillion market cap which would represent about a 9 bagger from today’s valuation, meaning Tesla is still a heck of a good investment.

As we read all these Tesla analyst notes from Wall Street investment banks and even from traders on social media, we often see them talk about how they “give no value to” many of the potential revenue lines that Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk, are developing. It made us wonder just how big this company could end up being if we actually assign value and model out some optimistic — but grounded in reality — numbers for everything the company is trying to (and probably will successfully) build. So we have put together what we call “The Ultimate Tesla Book” and “The Ultimate Tesla Model” here that we hope will provide readers with a unique look at the recent history of Tesla’s businesses, a deep understanding of all the various Revolutionary businesses that Tesla is developing, including how big each of them can be, and some idea about the potential upside for this company and its shareholders.

For example, the Optimus Robot may one day be able to do nearly anything that a human can do in the physical world. The total value of human labor is presently estimated at about $42 trillion annually and Optimus has the potential to disrupt that market and more. Not to mention, Optimus Robots will probably be some of the first devices sent to other planets like Mars (and beyond into deep space) to build worlds that will be hospitable for humans. They may also be critical to mining resources from asteroids for human use, among other things. Optimus Robots (in combination with everything going on at Elon’s space exploration company, SpaceX) could be one of the keys to making humans a multi-planetary species (which is one of Elon’s primary missions). In such a case, the ultimate TAM for the robot and the AI that powers it is almost infinite.

If this all sounds a little bit too much like Star Trek to you, you might be surprised to learn that this future is probably closer to reality than you may realize. SpaceX’s Starship will soon be able to carry payloads to the Moon and beyond, and recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have improved the capabilities of machines by orders of magnitude. Using neural networks and modern machine-learning techniques, Tesla is building AI systems that can teach machines how to respond to real-world situations without the need for human programming. What once took hundreds of thousands of lines of code and thousands of programming hours can now be accomplished in a fraction of the time with a fraction of the effort. Essentially, advanced neural networks can now teach computers to process data in a way very similar to how the human brain processes data, thereby dramatically improving the productivity of machines.

Tesla built its advanced neural network using its own custom-built supercomputer — known as Dojo — which is one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Dojo is built on Tesla’s custom-designed AI chip known as D1 and — unlike most off-the-rack AI chips — it is optimized to handle AI workloads using visual data. Tesla is also spending billions of dollars buying as many of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) most advanced chips as Tesla can get its hands on to use in the Dojo supercomputer too. Only a few other companies — perhaps only Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft — have a comparable amount of compute at their disposal. And Tesla and Meta are the only companies dedicating that compute power to building their own AI applications.

Tesla’s efforts to build the world’s most powerful supercomputer, combined with its cutting-edge neural networks (which it has been working on for nearly a decade) make it one of, if not the best, AI companies on the planet. Tesla’s AI development has been accelerated by the rapid expansion of generative AI and the availability of better chips from companies like Nvidia. In short, we think what most people expected to take a decade Tesla might accomplish within the next year or two given the significant advances we have seen with the company’s recent AI developments. Tesla aims to create at least a mini-version of artificial general intelligence (AGI) to drive its cars, and once that is achieved, we think the lid is off for its other projects including Robotaxi, Optimus, and Dojo.

We compared our valuation estimates to those of other notable Tesla bulls like Ron Baron — billionaire fund manager — and Cathie Wood, CEO/CIO of ARK Invest. Ron Baron thinks that Tesla will get to a $4 trillion market cap within a decade, and ARK estimates that Tesla could hit a $6.3 trillion market cap by 2027. As you will see below, we think that Tesla could reach a $4 trillion market cap by 2029. So, in order of most bullish to least bullish models amongst the ones we know of, it goes like this: ARK, The Ultimate Tesla Model, and Ron Baron.

This gives us some confidence that our model provides an optimistic but also reasonable view of Tesla’s future.

So welcome to The Ultimate Tesla Book (and The Ultimate Tesla Model!). Buckle up and ensure your seatbelts are securely fastened, folks—because this isn’t your standard road trip. We’re about to embark on a journey through Elon’s empire where we’ll explore the towering potential of Tesla’s ventures, assuming all stars align, batteries fully charge, and not a single tweet goes awry. If you come up with any questions about The Ultimate Tesla ideas in this book that aren’t clearly answered or if you’d just like to interact to learn more about The Ultimate Tesla ideas in this book, be sure to check out The Ultimate TSLA GPT that we created based on our analysis, models, and ideas in this book.

Here’s the table of contents from the book too…

Table of Contents

Introduction …………………………………………………………….. 3
Chapter 1–The Elon Premium/Discount …………………….. 10
Chapter 2–The Elon Effect ………………………………………. 12
Chapter 3–The Tesla Model……………………………………… 18
Chapter 4–Tesla’s Core Strengths ……………………………… 21
Chapter 5–The S3XY Lineup …………………………………… 34
Chapter 6–Cybertruck …………………………………………….. 42
Chapter 7–Tesla Solar ……………………………………………… 45
Chapter 8–Full Self Driving (FSD) …………………………… 49
Chapter 9–Model 2 …………………………………………………. 54
Chapter 10–Robotaxi ………………………………………………. 56
Chapter 11–Dojo …………………………………………………….. 58
Chapter 12–Optimus ……………………………………………….. 61
Chapter 13–Batteries ………………………………………………. 65
Chapter 14–Charging ………………………………………………. 66
Chapter 15–Tesla Semi ……………………………………………. 68
Chapter 16–Insurance ……………………………………………… 70
Chapter 17–Comparison to the ARK Model ………………. 71
Chapter 18–Summary ……………………………………………… 73
Appendix I …………………………………………………………….. 76
Appendix II ……………………………………………………………. 78
Glossary ………………………………………………………………… 80
Disclosures ……………………………………………………………. 83