TMDX’s Earnings, HOOD Call Options, Crypto Comeuppance And Much More

Here’s the transcript from today’s Live Q&A Chat:

Q. What are your top 5 buys and top 5 sells today?

A. Top 5 Buys today, in alphabetical order are: Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Meta Platforms (META), Rocket Lab (RKLB). Top 5 Sells today in alphabetical order would be: Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Cloudflare (NET), Tencent (TCEHY), Transmedics Group (TMDX).

Q. All kudos to Cody on Transmedics Group (TMDX). Well-played! What’s next for this juggernaut?

A. Thanks, let it be known that we trimmed about 10-15% of TMDX on this pop today which is coming on top of a strong move from the $70s when we were buying more. The quarter was amazing, the company turned profitable early, the growth rate hasn’t slowed and estimates have to go higher from the sellsiders. That said, it’s not a cheap valuation and discipline means trimming some on this huge move.

Q. Prediction for Apple (AAPL) earnings?

A. I expect they’ll be about in line to the reduced expectations as Wall Street has modeled out more China iPhone weakness, probably correctly. The company will be asked about its AI strategies over and over on the earnings conference call and Timmy Apple (as Trump once called Tim Cook in public) will demur and tell them to tune in this summer to learn more about Apple’s AI rollout and strategy. I expect the stock will be down 2% on Friday after the report.

Q. Thoughts on Meta (META) here? There’s been a few earnings reports and what not come out since your “where I’d buy more”.

A. I’m a buyer of more META near $400. Meta remains one of our favorite plays on The AI Revolution and The AR/VR Revolution. We’ve been in this stock since $20.

Q. What is your take on Elon’s China visit and the 16% pop in Tesla (TSLA) that quickly faded.

A. The China visit and agreements around data handling with the Communists running that country is great for Tesla and probably enables it to start selling/leasing high-margin FSD revenues in that country and others in the coming months and years. This is a volatile stock as we all know.

Q. I’m concerned about the Uber (UBER) position with Tesla (TSLA) potentially rolling out Robotaxi. You mentioned a new write-up on Uber in the works. Can that please be accelerated?

A. Sure, we’ll crank some new analysis out on Uber next week. There’s lots of angst over the Tesla Cybercab threat to Uber and we think it’s probably way too early to panic out of Uber despite our long-held belief that Tesla will eventually crack the total autonomous driving code at some point. We also think that Tesla could actually end up partnering with Uber on some of this robotaxi/cybercab roll out. More details on this next week.

Q. It seems Uber (UBER) has fallen off. Your long-term thoughts?

A. See my prior comments and I’d add that we were pounding the table about UBER a year ago in the $20s and that we noted that we were trimming it above $80. I might consider nibbling a little more if it gets closer to $60 as the sentiment around this name is getting pretty extreme on the downside.

Q. Any interest in Robinhood Markets (HOOD) calls? With such high volatility in stocks and crypto, it seems HOOD would benefit.

A. I would think that both HOOD and Coinbase (COIN) had terrific quarters to report soon. Some of that terrific-ness is obviously priced into these two stocks after the huge run they’ve had. But there’s probably more upside. I’m not using call options on the HOOD though, as we have a pretty good-sized common stock position in the name and we are buyers of more HOOD near $16.

Q. Appreciate the update on Intel Corporation (INTC). This was a high conviction play that we were on the wrong side of. Have you done an analysis on what went wrong in the thought process here? Similarly, there’s a lot of belief in Rocket Lab (RKLB). Everyone needs to size appropriately but concerned that this becomes another one that exits the portfolio eventually. (Not trying to be confrontational here! Thank you for this service.)

A. Yea, I made a mistake buying INTC and the main reason why was because I do think that their foundry business could end up being a trillion-dollar kicker for the company but I also thought the company would be able to execute better and take market share back from AMD in the CPU business and that The AI Revolution would help propel near-term revenue growth higher. As I said when I sold it and issued the mea culpa on it last week, I reserve the right to get back into this name at some point if/when the foundry business gets more developed, even if I have to pay a higher price that the stock is at today. I also needed to clear my head for a while so that I can analyze it with a completely clear palette. RocketLab is a very speculative small cap as I’ve said forever. The company is one of two companies on the planet that can actually send things to orbit right now and their backlog is growing and their revenue growth is strong. But they are not profitable yet and own’t be for a while. It’s also just about the only stock in the portfolio that we have any losses on right now and it’s possible that I might have to sell it someday if the company doesn’t execute on its plans. Steady as she goes for now.

Q. Any updated thoughts on Roku (ROKU)? Still chugging along, adding users, ARPU a little compressed but makes sense given weak ad market and international expansion, back to cash flow positive and adj EBITDA positive, feels somewhat cyclical but if/when the economy picks up and ad budgets come back feels like they could put together a few outperform quarters. 81mm people on the platform is nothing to sniff at but the market hates them.

A. Roku is a good company and has executed pretty well for many years. The company has done a good job of positioning itself as a Switzerland of TV streaming. That said, there’s just too much competition and too little differentiation of their business. Samsung TVs come with the same kind of “channels” that Roku does. Amazon Fire sticks and all Smart TVs come with the ability to download every other company’s TV streaming services, just like Roku devices and Roku TVs do. The company is growing their topline at about 10-15% per year and still isn’t GAAP profitable. I’m staying away from it.

Q. Bitcoin (BTC) is down below $60k – what is our buy-point?

A. I’ve been saying for the last month that I thought a new washout in the broader crypto bubble was commencing and that we’d look to nibble some more bitcoin near $55,000. It was down there around $56,000 today and we did nibble a little bit of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the hedge fund. We’ve also been selling quite a few of the bitcoin miner puts again this week as they have been crashing again.

Q. Was going to ask the same question. Are you nibbling iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) again?

A. Yes, but just a tiny bit here. I’m concerned that the crypto crash is just getting started and that bitcoin could suffer further Sell-The-News kind of a reaction post-halving here.

Q. Just to clarify on bitcoin, every 4 years there is a halving and the price of bitcoin has tended to hit it’s cycle peak around 300-500 days after the halving. That’s just what has happened the last 3 cycles before this. So are you saying that you think that peak has already happened or is this just a shorter-term top you’re talking about for bitcoin?

A. I think we shouldn’t assume that what bitcoin has done in past halvings, three of which I have lived through, will happen this time. There are more people in bitcoin than ever before, including all the billions from institutions and retail investors who just plowed into bitcoin in the last couple months since the bitcoin ETFs were approved right before the halving. Also, see my prior comments about how the entire crypto bubble has popped and we’re probably heading into a broader crypto crash. That said, I still think bitcoin will eventually bottom around $50,000 or maybe $40,000 sometime this summer and will probably climb towards $100,000 sometime next year — all of which I’ve been saying for months now.

Q. I’ve observed that the bitcoin price doesn’t really get going until about 5-6 months post halving and then the fun starts. At least in the past that is how it went. It will be interesting to see if the intro of a bitcoin (BTC) ETF has now reset everything. You’re expecting a larger pullback near-term than I am but after that agree it’s headed up.

A. Remember this conversation in chat from a few weeks ago: “Q. Your $100k bitcoin target for this cycle is one of the lower targets out there. Is it just being conservative or do you see reasons for why it won’t go to $150k-175k+? A. With no underlying earnings stream or assets, any target for bitcoin is wholly dependent upon other factors including crypto people’s greed and fear, what the Fed is doing, what other central banks are doing, what wars are going on, etc. And the fact that my expectation (not a target — I don’t do price targets) that bitcoin could go up 60% or more in the next 12-20 months somehow seems “conservative” is a reflection of the unbridled and unfounded greed that runs rampant in the crypto industry and amongst crypto investors right now. I’d be very careful in the crypto world right now. I am outright bearish on just about every crypto not named bitcoin. If I had said eleven years ago when I was pounding the table and teaching all of you how to buy bitcoin at $100 each that I thought bitcoin could go up 1000x from that levels in eleven years, I don’t think anybody would have called that ‘conservative’. Just sayin’.” That $100,000 is almost a double from these levels which is a lot. But so many crypto traders out there are pretty sure that $100,000 in bitcoin is a sure thing and it’s not. And it will probably ebb and flow and force weak-handed holders, including some of the many people who bought into bitcoin at higher levels and who believe they are diamond-handed, to sell before it gets to moving higher again. Now that I write this, I expect it might be 2026 before bitcoin gets to $100,000.

Q. It seems like a lifetime ago that we held Stellar Lumens (XLM). I know your focus is on BTC but have you looked at Stellar again recently? A coworker of mine is betting the farm there.

A. It was a lifetime ago, or at least more than ten years ago that we were in Stellar Lumens I believe. Anyway, yes, I still keep an eye on it and most other of the top 100 cryptos and some other cryptos. As I’ve been saying for the last month though, I think the latest crypto bubble has popped and that these recent 30-50% declines in every crypto out there are probably just the beginning of a new crypto washout. I expect that 99%+ of the cryptos outside of the top 20 and especially the meme coins and the racist coins and the fascist coins are headed down 99.9% over the next year or two. Stellar Lumens are probably not that bad, but I’ve no interest in speculating on them here.

I leave you all with a picture of two of the cutest kids in the world — my two daughters doing their things.