Torn Markets, Big Tech Buy List, Berkshire For PayPal? And More
Here’s this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A chat.
Hi all. I had a typo in yesterday’s Latest Positions, as I still have Part 4 to come. It’s been a wild week in the markets and at my home too. Amaris got her cast off her leg and then had a surgery the next day and I ran up to Albuquerque on Wednesday afternoon to help my wife (and her parents) take care of her with Lyncoln. Got back early yesterday, straight to the office, writing up a segment of Latest Positions and working and etc. Amaris is back home too and seems to be feeling great today!
Q. The market is very tough right now. I am torn amongst getting rid of my biggest losers and catching falling knives in better tech stocks and chasing safer haven in utilities, gold, staples, etc. In the end, I can’t decide.
A. I think gold is good, but I wouldn’t touch most utilities stocks or staples right now, as the risks for revaluation to the downside in those names is very real, especially if the economy recedes. I will indeed start taking some big losses in some of my favorite names that have not done well at all for us in coming weeks and months as a matter of discipline. I’ll also be adding some new names when opportunities arise and I think as the markets finally find a bottom and wash out the greed and excesses and frauds that ran rampant before the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market went “pop!” that there’s going to be a LOT of upside in a lot of technology names. We’re getting closer.
Q. Hi Cody. As the biggest tech names keep falling, which ones (if any of them) would you be tempted to start buying now (e.g. FB, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, APPL)?
A. I’ve been buying FB and NFLX here this week. I like AMZN and GOOG here too, but not as much. TSLA is fine but overvalued. AAPL seems vulnerable to the downside in my opinion.
Q. How long do you expect the TLT to play out? I used a limit order at an 8% gain off Wed price of $119.13.
A. I plan to be out of the trade, win or lose, by June or so.
Q. Hope you and family are well. I liked your call on TLT. Another adviser I subscribe to suggested exactly the same idea, so I bought quite a bit. Thanks for updating your current rating lists. It would also be nice if you could put “Trade Alert” in the subject line of any email that has one. Thanks! Also, I live on the Eastern Shore of Virginia near Wallops Flight Facility where Rocket Lab is building out their Neutron launch site. I’ll share any insights with you when I get some. I’m friends with many of the NASA folks.
A. Thanks, I appreciate the kind words and will try to make sure Trade Alert in in any subject when there’s a trade. Speaking of space, have you looked at my Space Debris-Cleaning Cryptocurrency at sktls.com? We do a volunteers zoom call each Wednesday at 2pm ET and I’d love to have you and/or some of your NASA friends pop by to see the enthusiasm about The Space Revolution and how we can help make it happen. Here’s the link: SKTLs weekly meeting
Q. Thanks, Cody! Great idea to have me go up to NASA and talk about SKTLs!
A. I think most space enthusiasts love and know the importance of a Space Debris-Cleaning solution. Crypo enthusiasts love the fact that SKTLs is a virtuous, transparent crypto with no founder tokens or any other games. We have a lot of fun on our weekly volunteers zoom call and I think you and your NASA friends would benefit from seeing what we’re up to in depth.
Q. Cody, RKLB is almost at it’s all time low. Seems your horizon in that investment is long term. You did mention in the past you’d be buying a big tranche at these levels. Any update now considering the market today?
A. I did buy some RKLB last time it got here below $8 and I’m sitting tight waiting for another leg lower before I buy another tranche. I do plan on buying more RKLB at some point in the next few months, but not in a rush since I already have a tranche at these levels.
Q. Cody, I would love an update on BKSY. I’ve been nibbling here, near what is hopefully a bottom.
A. I wrote this about it earlier this week: BKSY Blacksky (7-) – What a mess this stock has been. With the Ukraine/Russia War, the demand for space surveillance in ever closer to real-time with ever greater clarity at ever smaller focal points is growing exponentially. I’ll give this company one more quarter to deliver some results or I’ll have to move on and cut large losses here. This has become a small position as the stock has collapsed. What a terrible investment this has been, and mea culpa.
Q. Do you think Berkshire has any interest in PYPL? They could buy the company with their cash, even with the premium, and this seems like the banking/cash generator they love. Although, it is tech and they don’t go down that road often.
A. I hadn’t thought of it, but yea, that could make some sense. PYPL is trading at 18x this year’s and 13x next year’s earnings estimates. That might still be a little “rich” for Berkshire, but it’s getting close to their kind of valuation, I believe.
Q. Good morning. Please take a look at UPST, what are your thoughts?
A. Sure has gotten crushed, falling from $400 to $72 here. Now it’s trading at a pretty good valuation, as its growing topline 30-40% and should earn nearly $4 next year if estimates hold. Problem is that they’re in the mortgage business essentially and that’s a tough business when rates are spiking and real estate is popping its own bubble right now. So I’m not sure they can meet those estimates. “Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud- based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company’s platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company’s AI- enabled bank partners. Its platform connects consumers, banks, and institutional investors through a shared AI lending platform. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.”
Q. Cody, glad to hear Amaris is doing well. I didn’t see W or INFI in latest positions. Could you provide update on those please? Sorry if I missed something.
A. Here’s what I just wrote in a column for today: “Here is a Part 4 of 4 (I had a typo yesterday) of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.”
Q. Cody, I know some of these are smaller positions and that I might have even missed some, but these are all missing from your latest positions. INTC, UBER, QCOM, NVDA, PYPL, PRVB, INFI, U, ORGN, KD, IONQ, W and SHOP
A. Yes, coming today. Sorry.
That’s a wrap folks. Stay safe and have a great weekend! I leave you with a photo of a curious roadrunner in the front yard of our AirBnB in Albuquerque from early Thursday morning.
