Trade Alert: Apple trim and analysis for each of the portfolio positions

Five years ago when the Greece-contagion EU/Euro Financial Crisis first started rearing its ugly head, I used to write that I’d prefer to see the EU/Euro collapse as it has failed to create any prosperity but has been used as a means to prop up central banks and corrupt corporatist governments in Europe. I’ve always thought that Greece would be one of, if not the, first to exit the EU. In 2010, I’d said a min of Five Years to get here. Well, it’s now been five years, but could take a few more. LINK

Here’s another something I wrote about Greece in 2011 and still stands true today: “Aren’t you glad you didn’t panic when Greece blew up. Or when Greece blew up. Or when Italy blew up. Or when Greece blew up. Or when Spain blew up. Or when Italy blew up. Or when Spain blew up. Or when the commercial real estate collapse hit. Or when the Republicans and Democrats couldn’t agree to a budget debt ceiling? Or when the tragic nuclear reactor hit Japan? Or when Greece blew up?”

“Let’s remember how the markets and the mainstream media panicked repeatedly about each and every one of those events. And how scary and real some of that fear was for you too as those events were happening in real-time. And let’s continue to see past such noise and to use the volatility that such fears (and subsequent relief) brings to the market to our advantage.” http://tradingwithcody.com/201…

I love meeting my subscribers and readers and even just fans when I speak at various venues. A subscriber to my Revolution Investing newsletter who has been reading and following my stuff for more than ten years asked me to list the stocks in the model portfolio in order of which ones I think are the best trades, long or short, right now.

Best set-ups right now:

GOOG – short-term because it’s finally acting like it might have legs on this latest bounce from the $500 level and longer-term because Android is set to dominate wearables and more

FB – will it finally break out of the $70s? FB’s looking like it could run rather quickly to $90 if it ever gets above $80), SNDK (The stock’s yielding 1.5% and earnings set to continue to grow

TWTR – popped after its earnings and the path of least resistance looks higher for now

FSLR – the collapse of energy prices has weighed on this stock, but a recent $800 million long-term solar energy supply deal with Apple is a big deal

EWY – remember that this one’s a short and it’s because Samsung’s decline is likely just starting — see Blackberry and/or Nokia and/or Motorola’s big collapse after being the dominant commodity handset vendor in years’ past

Second best set-ups right now:

SNE – it’s had a huge run, probably best to let it consolidate a little bit for now

WFM – same with this one, huge run time  to rest

INTC – yielding nearly 3% and catching some mobile traction at last

XLF – Remember that this is another short and it’s a bet that there’s some big losses at the big banks who gamble in currency and energy markets

BKS – Another short position and one that’s levitating despite losses and problems in every fundamental metric

Not the best of set-ups right now:

AAPL – I think it’s time to trim a little bit more of my own. The stock’s up about 30% in a straight line and the hype around the coming Apple Watch is growing exponentially too. So, discipline over conviction. Following the playbook. Making the hardest trade. That’s why it’s the third list above there, because I personally am trimming a bit of it today, about 10% of my position.

AMBA – Did we see some Amberalla capitulation this morning? Earnings are coming up and that’s the next catalyst, tho as volatile as this stock has been, who knows. There’s a lot of hope from momentum traders who’ve been plowing into $AMBA, which makes the chips that GoPro uses to make their cameras run, with the proceeds from the GPRO stock they’ve been getting out of for big losses. I’m worried that it’ll take a serious topline beat and guide for AMBA to pop if its still set up like this in three weeks when it reports. No easy answers.

LNN – I’m getting tired of watching this stock go nowhere but the nearly 2% dividend’s kept me in it for now.

I also want to mention $Gold and $silver while they are getting crushed. Gold’s fall from its recent highs at the $1300 levels has been accelerating. I’m often asked about when I’d look to scale into physical gold coins. Into the teeth of this near-term decline is probably not a bad time to do a tranche if you’re one of those looking to invest in it. I built up the bulk of my gold position a few years ago and am holding it steady for now. I might add another tranche to my own gold if it were to get down closer to $1100 or lower as I’ve been saying for the last year or so.

Finally, I’ll be moderating a hedge fund panel and giving a speech at the upcoming NYC TradersExpo, so come on by and say hi and let’s chat in person.

Speaker Schedule:

Monday, March 02, 2015
8:00 am – 9:00 am
Trading Like a Hedge Fund Manager

Monday, March 02, 2015
1:45 pm – 2:45 pm
Why You Shouldn’t Listen to Anybody When It Comes to Investing and Trading
Nobody has any clue about what you should be doing with your money. Not even me.
• We’ll give tips for finding your own edge and reducing risk.
• We’ll help you figure out why you’re risking your hard-earned capital in the first place.