Trade Alert: Buying some more Twitter
On a personal note, my daughter Amaris is pulling through remarkably well. She might be the single happiest and healthiest Trisomy 13 baby in history, and she’s blowing all the doctors’ minds. She’s got a tracheal tube, a gastro tube and lots of monitors, and my wife and I spend most days at the hospital NICU with her. We’ve rented a short-term house here in Albuquerque and we might get to take her to that house in the next week or two and then on home to Ruidoso in a couple months or less. She’s just the strongest, bravest little warrior I’ve ever seen. And she loves being held and kissed. Thanks again, as always, for all the prayers, kind words and well-wishes you all have been sending. I have been blown away by how much care so many of my Trading With Cody subscribers have given us during this time. Thank you.
Now onto some work stuff…
Twitter is still one of my smallest positions and I’ve been waiting for it to drop below $35 to nibble on some more. I’m adding a 1/5th position of a tranche scale in here and I would look to add another 1/5th or bigger position in Twitter if the stock gets hit after earnings tomorrow night.
Everybody hates Twitter right now. Remember when Google was hated? Remember when Amazon was hated? Remember when Facebook was hated? When was the best time to buy Google, Amazon and Facebook? That’s right, when they were hated. Does any serious investor not hate Twitter right now? I doubt it.
Twitter’s content, with the 140 character limit making it very easy to monitor commentary, makes Twitter the single best play on Big Data. The amount and the types of data that are being collected are about to go exponential. IBM and Twitter have teamed up to start parsing their Big Data potential and Twitter’s already making hundreds of millions of dollars a year selling access to their data/content/posts to analytics companies who are in turn creating entire business models off of being able to monitor and organize what people are saying on Twitter.
Periscope is going to be worth tens of billions of dollars. The ability to stream your videos live to anybody who wants to watch it is like YouTube on steroids. Periscope is becoming the de facto standard for live video streaming and nobody else out there can compete with them right now. Remember Meerkat? It was cute. Periscope actually does everything Meerkat was supposed to and there’s already enough people on the exploding Periscope network of users that Periscope is already benefitting from the positive feedback loop of more streamers begetting more watchers, begetting more streamers, begetting more watchers and so on.
Those who want to stream their live videos want to make sure there’s people out there to watch it. Periscope’s now the default live streaming app. Heck, I even listened to Howard Stern talk for 20 minutes last week about how his Wack Pack is now on Periscope. Periscope alone is probably worth the $20 billion that the market is saying the entire company of Twitter is worth right now. Periscope’s popularity will explode as video camera wearables start proliferating amongst the billions of selfie-obsessors on the planet.
People will be using Periscope on their wearables to steream their entire waking lives from their collars, from their lapels, from their glasses. You can expect cameras to be on tennis players during Wimbledon, on NFL quarterbacks and on Kim Kardashian during red carpet events. You’ll get to see their lives from their perspective. The same people that can’t get enough of Us Magazine and reality TV will eat it up. That’s just the celebrity part. There are other industries that will also utilize the wearable live streaming revolution, such as porn always tries this type of technology, too. And then friends, adventurists, explorers, pilots — you name it. Who doesn’t want to see the life from someone else’s perspective? There will be people that do it in every profession and people that use Periscope daily. There will be TV shows built around it. Live streaming will within another couple years be a multi-billion dollar industry and it’s Periscope’s game to lose for now.
A few weeks ago, I told my Trading With Cody subscribers: “TWTR Twitter at $38 is starting to pique my interest, but in the near-term, I’d rather wait until (if) the stock were to hit $35 or below before nibbling on some.”
Well, we’re below $35 on Twitter now and I’m going to start scaling into some more with an investment time horizon of five to ten years.
I’m adding a 1/5th position of a tranche scale in here and I would look to add another 1/5th or bigger position in Twitter if the stock gets hit after earnings tomorrow night.
I don’t know if Twitter’s going to hit $25 before it hits $40 next, but I do think, for all the reasons listed about, that Twitter’s going to be worth $100 billion some day, which would give us a 300-400% gain from there.
