Trade Alert: I’ve Been Wrong About A Lot And Here Are Some Moves I’m Making
I need to get this off my chest. I’ve been wrong about a lot for the last year. Though I definitely got more cautious as I did a “Great Reset” and trimmed several of our positions last year and stayed defensive overall as The Speculative And SPAC Bubble started popping and then I turned outright bearish and talked about how we were going through a Blow-Off Top back in November — I held onto some of our biggest losers way too long and that was a very wrong move. The Bubble-Blowing Bull Market took up even the worst of the crappiest speculative stocks. Now the Great Bubble Unwind is slamming some of even the best Revolutionary companies out there.
I had wanted to get through this earnings season to re-evaluate which of our losers to start culling and then the markets have gone into crash mode during this earnings season. As it is, I want to start by selling three losers, taking the loss and moving on. We have plenty of cash to put to work both in the hedge fund and in the personal accounts already but I’m going to raise a bit more cash here this week by getting out of some of our losers on the long side and winners on the short side. I reserve the right to buy these stocks back in a month or six or next year or whenever my disciplined analysis says its right to do so. In the meantime, I am obviously sick to my stomach about having any losers, but it is part of the process of investing and we can certainly take solace in the fact that we have certainly done a great of job of avoiding the kind of crash that most other tech investors are dealing with, even if we do have some losers on the sheets in the bear market/crash.
Getting out of some of these names will allow me to find the next stocks that can go up 10-100x without feeling stuck in these names. In the hedge fund, I have a lot of shorts in a lot of crappy stocks, many of which I’ve mentioned in the past few months, that I’m going to start covering more aggressively here too, including closing out some names like BLNK and SPWR, I’m going to get some cash on the sheets from both longs and shorts that way, as I said. I have a growing list of names including ROKU that are looking very cheap in my fundamental and Revolutionary algorithms and I want to have plenty of cash to make these 3%-to-6%-sized positions which would be much more aggressive than most of the long position sizes are in the portfolio right now (with some exceptions like INTC and FB being quite a bit bigger than most of my longs right now).
I can grow by learning from my mistakes, and even as I was so cautious overall, I let myself own some stocks that were definitely going through their own popping bubble way too long. In names like Unity and Netflix, I focused too much on the Revolutionary aspects of their business as the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market wore down my discipline about focusing just as much, if not more, on buying stocks when they also have great valuations. Mea culpa.
Unity is down 25% after hours, after already hitting a 52-week low earlier today. The earnings report wasn’t bad, but guidance was quite a bit below consensus for next quarter and a bit below consensus for the next year. I’m not selling this one into this move tomorrow as I like this company’s gaming platform enough that I want to re-run it through my algorithms before bailing on it.
On the other hand, let’s move on from these names. I’m selling these names entirely for now:
NFLX, BKSY, W, RDWR, INFI. Mea culpa on the last three especially, as long-term subscribers and I have made some great money owning NFLX at various times over the years (and that is the one of these three that I think is most likely that I might buy back at some point).
Investing is hard, as I’ve long said. Bubbles and crashes like we’ve been living through in the past three years (and for the past thirty years actually) make it even harder. We have done a great job of outperforming over the long-term both in Bubble-Blowing Bull Markets and even now in this Great Bubble Unwind but that doesn’t mean I’ve been infallible. I pledge to do even better as we finish up this Great Bubble Unwind and move into the next phase, whenever that is and whatever that is.
PS. I’ve been saying for the last year or two that 99.99% of the 19,000+ cryptocurrency tokens out there are silly, stupid or fraudulent and are headed to $0. The Great Crypto Bubble is itself starting to unwind and it’s now nearly as far along in its unwind as stocks are. The Luna Terra UST stable coin algo silliness, with tens of billions of dollars in market cap, just might be the catalyst for the whole crypto bubble going pop. So be careful out there in crypto right now. The only cryptos I own of any size at this point are bitcoin, which I’ve owned since 2013, and I’ve been swapping my ETH for a tiny bit of SKTLs and dollars. I’m out of ETH entirely in my personal account and I’m even short some ETH futures against some bitcoin futures that I’m long in the hedge fund.
I’m going to host an Everything You Need To Know About SKTL Space Cryptocurrency Tokens zoom call tomorrow at 2pm ET. They are trading at 1/2 a penny and 8/10 of a penny, giving them a market cap of about $2 million, which makes SKTLs one of the top 10% most valuable cryptocurrencies in the world already. On the zoom call tomorrow, I will walk every one though how to buy SKTL tokens on Pancake Swap now that the airdrop has happened. I’ll also explain how to check to see if you received the airdrop and I’ll explain how and why any SKTL owners should put a little bit of their SKTL tokens into the Pancake Swap Liquidity Pool to help facilitate the market for new buyers and sellers. Here’s the zoom link (https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81202284137?pwd=cGRuNVNFMnhDaG5uWjRVeEt5Zi9Ldz09) to join tomorrow’s call. I’ll also send out a replay afterward, of course. Learn more at SKTLS.com in the meantime.
