Trade Alert: Revolution Investing Over The Centuries

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’ — Bob Dylan

He’s right you know?

Let me explain.

The volatility intraday and ups and downs day-to-day and the swings week-to-week and the bubbles-to-crashes year-to-year for the last 10 days, 100 days, 1000 days has been historic. And we have lived in a time of historic bubbles and crashes for the 18,000 days of my life, so it’s saying something when we point out just how wild the action has been since heading into Covid in a Bubble-Blowing Bull Market into having an historic short-term crash at the beginning of Covid and then bubbling into a giant Blow-Off Top and now in the midst of The Great Speculative Stock Crash (and some Crashette action in the broader markets too lately).

Here’s a snapshot of where we are right now that I stumbled across when I looked at Twitter last night:

“The JPEG I bought ain’t worth 1 Eth anymore. 1 Eth ain’t worth 4k no more. And $4000 ain’t worth $4000 anymore.”

People have lost money by speculating in digital images, cryptographic currencies, speculative stocks, index funds, bonds, and even by just holding cash as inflation saps its value too. There’s been a lot of ways to lose a lot of money — trillions — and we haven’t even seen but one of the major cryptocurrencies crash to zero so far (the Luna Terra nonsense). I don’t know if NFT JPEG images are ever going to have much long-term value. I do think a few dozen at most of the current batch of 20,000+ cryptos will be very valuable long-term. I think 1 out of every 10 Speculative Stocks will turn out to be great investments long-term. I think index funds will be okay but will struggle to match the returns that people have gotten used to in index funds during the last 25 years of mostly Bubbled Up stock market action. I think Treasury bonds that yield 3% are okay, but the upside potential isn’t worth the risk that rates run higher over the long-term from these historically low levels that they’ve bounced off of this year. I think cash is a better place to hide than most people give it credit for because it’s at least not compounding your potential pain with capital losses but inflation at the levels we’re seeing these days means that’s not much comfort either.

On the other hand, there are five or ten major Revolutionary Technology Trends that will create multi-trillion dollar marketplaces in the next ten to twenty years and I do believe that finding the leaders in those industries is what will create fortunes in the next couple decades, just like it did in the last few decades before I was even born as The Communications Revolution made radio, television and telephones a normal thing in everybody’s houses. Those Revolutions along with our current AI, Biotech and Space Revolutions wouldn’t exist if the prior trillion dollar Tech Revolutions that preceded them in the last few centuries before that as The Electricity Revolution and The Energy Revolution went mainstream. We all realize the impact that The Bronze Revolution had, don’t we?

So, here’s what I’m to in the midst of this action and my analysis around it:

I’m selling half my ROKU here today on the big pop. We’ve made a nice gain here short-term and again today as the company is rumored to be in a potential acquisition for Netflix. I like ROKU’s valuation here but if they’re willing to sell this company anywhere that’s not at least a double or triple from these levels then I’m not seeing enough long-term upside here. I’ll let these rumors settle down a bit and then I’ll revisit the other half.

I’m buying more INTC. One of the big investment bank analysts said he thinks Intel is going to have to pre-announce a bad quarter after he heard Intel’s CFO lament how the company needs to keep its head down to get through the ongoing supply chain and other issues that every company is dealing with in this strange post-Covid economy. In my opinion, Intel’s got a lot of bad news and warnings probably already priced into this stock as it trades here near its 52-weeks lows of about $40 with a 4% dividend yield. What if Intel’s actually taking market share as it does appear to be on the highest end computer platforms that Nvidia themselves chose to use Intel’s latest chips for? I also bought a few Intel call options about 10% out of the money and dated out to July or August.

I think biotech is looking like it could start being a favored industry for the first time in a decade or two. The Biotech Revolution is going to cure many forms of cancer, prolong lives, enable people like my daughter Amaris who was born with trisomy 13 to live fuller, more mainstream lives. I’ve been starting to build a position in the IBB biotech ETF lately as I dig further into finding specific names in the industry to own for the next ten or twenty years or forever. If you have a favorite biotech name or two, send them along please and I’ll dig in.

Here’s Amaris and I partying by our pool last night looking at the bouncing Govee lights and I might be singing poorly but loudly along with Tom Petty’s Free Fallin’ which she thought was hilarious.