Trade Alert – Risks of the new warfront rise
Societies and economies can see many years and even decades can go by with little fundamental change. Regimes and empires can last for centuries. But at some point, often in a seeming moment, everything can change. It’s possible we are at one of those moments right now.
To wit, I have butterflies in my stomach about what the US government, with its entrenched Republicans and Democrats ruling every national office is about to do to Syria.
Even the mainstream polls, which I have no faith in anyway, how sentiment amongst US voters running against this war by a 2-1 margin. Other than my old colleagues on TV, many of whom from every cable and network newscast are simply mouthpieces for the Regime’s policies, I don’t know anybody, not one single person in the US or abroad who’s even on the fence about attacking Syria — nobody wants us to.
It seems the Republican/Democrat Regime in power doesn’t care what you think about the US starting an outright war with Syria. Russia and China are steadfast against the US attacking and Putin isn’t exactly mincing words when he calls Kerry an outright “liar who knows he’s lying.” I call it a Republican/Democrat Regime because I want to help people recognize that we are being ruled by an actual Regime that pretends to pass power back and forth between two “representative parties”. The R/D Regime has lost all credibility with the American people. And it also seems like it just doesn’t care anymore. Here’s just how bad it’s gotten:
- PRISM and other NSA spying on US citizens
- Privacy-corruption collusion between the Regime and the giant US Internet companies
- Bailouts, ZIRP, and trillions in stealth welfare for giant banks
- Too-big-to-prosecute and an increasingly unlevel playing field for justice and punishment
- Secrecy and whistle-blower prosecution
- Privatizing public assets like Chicago’s parking meters to enrich private interests at the public’s expense
- Obamacare and its explicit enrichment of the insurance, drug, hospital and medical industrial complex
- Energy subsidies – hundreds of billions of annual subsidies and other forms of welfare go to oil, natural gas, solar and other energy companies
- Oligarch welfare like racing track, casino and professional team subsidies for billionaire owners
- Targeted tax tricks that force the middle class to pay 25-50% tax rate while billionaires and companies like GE recording record profits pay 0-15% tax rate.
Back when Senator McCain and President Obama were pretending to be on opposite sides of the aisle and principle of war vs peaceful diplomacy, I mocked the mainstream media for pushing that line.
Fast-forward today, and you see McCain, Kerry and Obama all together mongering for yet another new warfront. It should be clear, at least it is to me, that we live under a Regime that’s in power in this supposed democracy here in the US.
It reminds me of the days of TARP when Senator after Congressman would come on my news show on Fox and would admit that their constituents were against the bailouts by 90% plus. But they’d then go on to tell me that, “Sometimes know better than the constituents.”
The upshot of all this analysis and commentary is that I am scared right now about our nation’s safety, economy and future, much like when the TARP bailout passed and I became outright and extremely bearish about the near and mid-term markets.
I’m not sure the market’s reaction to the US attacking Syria and the potential for a serious change in the global balance of world powers is going to play out like it has in recent wars’ past with a quick spike down followed by a big rally as I suggested recently.
I’m going to sell down my net long exposure here a bit by selling half of my remaining FB calls and a tiny bit of FB common (it’ll still be my biggest position). I’m also going to buy some SPY puts here this morning, using $160-170 strike prices expiring in December or January. I’m still not bearish like I was back in that second video above. But I don’t like the risk/reward of being overly long as these geopolitical developments escalate.
