Trade Alert: Scaling in amidst the panic

Remember just 32 days ago, I wrote this:

We have a lot of stocks up big today, which has been a recurring theme for our portfolio during earnings season so far. Many of our biggest positions are at or near all-time highs. If you haven’t done any trimming, consider doing so. Maybe 10-20% of some of these biggest winners or about that same amount of some of your most recent big winners.

It’s easy to get carried away in the momentum and to start feeling invincible when so many of our stocks are so far outpacing the broader markets which have been struggling all year. In the Trading With Cody Chat Room today, there are a lot of comments like these:

• $SPLK breaking out.
• LOTS OF THINGS WORKING WELL we have had great timely trims and great timely buys overall YTD.
• Good trade on AMBA
• YTD has been nice
• sounds like your YTD performance is outpacing that of the S&P!

Just a reminder that it’s better to sell when you can, not when you have to. And on that note, I also noticed that my ratings for most of our long positions crept lower this month, as most of our stocks ran higher.

Let me rephrase that post according to today’s reality:

We have a lot of stocks DOWN big today. Many of our biggest positions ARE BACK DOWN to levels they haven’t seen in many months. If you haven’t done any BUYING, consider doing so. Maybe NIBBLE ON 10-20% of WHAT YOU CONSIDER A FULL-SIZED POSITION.

It’s easy to get carried away in the momentum and to start feeling THE PANIC when so many stocks AND the broader markets ARE BASICALLY CRASHING. In the Trading With Cody Chat Room today, there are a lot of comments like these:

• Do you consider going 100% cash yourself?
• I clearly understand the desire to SELL IT ALL.
• I am considering to sell all shares and go 100% cash.

Just a reminder that it’s better TO BUY INTO PANIC, NOT SELL INTO PANICS. And on that note, I WILL TELL YOU that my ratings for most of our long positions JUMPED HIGHER IN THE LAST WEEK, as most of our stocks HAVE COME DOWN.

It’s been said that stocks go up like an escalator and they go down like an elevator. So it goes. And while most money managers were bullish and getting longer when the markets were at all-time highs and/or rangebound near all-time highs, the same folks are now panicking and selling and turning bearish.

If you trimmed when stocks were higher, if you follow the playbook, you’re not sick to your stomach today — you’re looking around and starting to pick up some shares. Don’t draw a line in the sand, don’t try to nail the bottom. Just scale into some more long exposure while others are panicking.

That’s exactly what I’ll be doing this morning as I nibble on some of my highest rated stocks. I’m not going to go all-in and I’m not going to load up on call options (yet?), but I am going to scale into more long exposure while others are panicking.

So, my daughter Amaris has a doctor’s appointment this morning and I’ll be there with her early and then I’ll be back before the midway point of the trading day. This morning, I’ll be nibbling on some:

AMBA.

AAPL.

GOOG.

FSLR.

EZCH.

Keep your heads up, keep your cool and stay vigilant. We have a playbook for this. I’ll be back with another post in a bit.