Trade Alert – Scaling into one of our alternative energy ideas
Back in 2010 and 2011, my subscribers and I were short some of the biggest alternative energy stocks on the planet and we made a killing on their subsequent collapse. Here’s an example of my thesis from back then.
Q: Hello Cody! How do you see FSLR for a short before its earnings and in the light of its descent in July? Thank you and please write about your OWS experiences.
A: I do think FSLR and just about every single other alternative energy company out there is a great short candidate. Call them Solyndra-lites, perhaps! Regardless, these companies’ business models tend to work only if heavily subsidized with welfare funds that are hard to come by these days and are likely to be cut with a vengeance in coming years.
Fast forward to earlier this year, and I “flipped it” and turned bullish on the alternative energy sector and have been slowly but surely scaling into some of my favorite survivors of the carnage. To get a full overview of the sector right now, just read my latest investment book, 100 Stocks for the Clean Tech Revolution, which you get free of course with your TradingWithCody.com account to find out exactly what stocks I’m buying and to get the book for free.
Here’s the intro from the book:
I coined the term “Flip It” many years ago, and it essentially is all about being contrarian and objective in your analysis of everything. One of the most important and profitable aspects of “Flipping It” is being willing and able to buy companies in sectors when they are truly hated. And likewise, to short companies in sectors when they are truly loved.
Long-time subscribers and readers of mine will recall that I wrote a series of newsletters and articles about how “Alternative Energy Is Doomed” back when government-backed, subsidized and completely unprofitable Clean and Green companies were coming public and trading at astronomical valuations. Indeed, we added Aone and other Clean Tech companies to the short side of the Revolution Investing portfolio and didn’t cover it until it was close to a dollar, at which time I still declared it to be headed to bankruptcy. AONE’s asset were just bought out of bankruptcy and shareholders got absolutely nothing.
Over the couple months, I’ve seen a bunch of random headlines, articles and analysis that now declare…wait for it…”Alternative Energy Is Dead.” It’s not quite my titles, but you get the point — now is the time to “Flip It” when it comes to green energy. I’m no Warren Buffett fan, but you know about his legendary guts in buying contarian/hated sectors and guess what. The Oracle of Omaha is lately investing in Clean Tech.
I’ve got a stock research team that is the best in the business. Believe it or not, everybody who works for me right now, and most of my past employees too, have been long-time subscribers and readers of my services who reached out to me looking for an opportunity. We went to work on the entire Clean Tech Revolution Sector looking for investments, trades and even some short ideas still, especially near-term shorts. The Clean Tech Revolution Sector is indeed now consolidating at pennies on the dollar for both assets and entire companies. The survivors of this consolidation will likely see some huge gains for investors from these levels in years ahead.
The set-up right now for Clean Tech is probably a lot like it was for Telecom/Dot-com Tech back in about 2002. The Great Tech Bubble had popped in 2000 and most every dot-com and telecom stock was trading at a small fraction of where it had been just two years earlier. Cisco was at $8 a share. Apple was at $10. Amazon is up 10-fold since 2002. Google couldn’t even consider coming public despite generating billions of dollars in revenues.
The companies that survived that crash truly became great investments for those willing to dive in after the crash. Indeed, I launched a tech hedge fun in October 2002 for the explicit reason of buying up tech stocks in the carnage.
Cody back in real-time here. First Solar just announced that they’re going to blow away estimates for the year and that they’ve also been buying up some of these bankrupt assets from their former competitors’ carcasses and I think aggressive investors and traders should slowly start building up a long position in the stock. Yes, the stock is up 40% today, and I’m as angry at myself for not having already stepped into this one with my own capital besides having recommended it to my subscribers already, even just a few weeks ago (Cody Kiss & Tell: Unsustainable Banks, Telecom Equipment and When to Take Money Off the Table):
Q. With the solar industry due to make some ground, what do you feel about First Solar now that it has doubled since it’s bottom?
A. I like FSLR a lot more now than I did years ago when it was bubbled. Read the new 100 Stocks for the Clean Tech Revolution for more of our FSLR analysis.
So at any rate, I don’t know how the stock will trade intraday on Wednesday but I am going to bid for a first tranche of common FSLR stock around $39-40 a share this morning and will use a very wide scale before adding the next tranche, perhaps near $36 or so. Longer-term, this stock could double or triple in the next couple years if they can execute and deliver on the fundamental set up now.
