Trade Alert: Selling JMIA, Market Froth, Tapering And More
Here’s the transcript from this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A Chat.
Q. The economy and markets seem quite frothy to me here. There is so much spending going on for non-essentials (boats, ATVs, expensive vehicles with aftermarket everything parts on them, etc.) along with seemingly ridiculous real estate prices and associated price wars all over. Then, I see surges in covid cases coupled with vaccination requirements from many agencies/employers popping up all over. The markets are also repeatedly hitting all time highs. Do the markets seem frothy to you?
A. Real estate has gotten into a bubble in many areas. Crypto’s got a few hundred billion dollars in fake/crappy cryptos that will evaporate. Stocks are highly valued but earnings growth and margins have been terrific. Frothy is a funny word.
Q. Cody, do you think the Fed’s eventual tapering of bond purchasing will impact markets, dampening financial euphoria?
A. I think the Fed’s one of many cogs in the market/economic/bubble wheel.
Q. Do you still feel that IWM underperforms here in the next 6-12 months?
A. Oh yea.
Q. Welcome back and glad the therapy went well for Amaris. Regarding Bitcoin, the price predictions are all over the place, from $5k to $250k. Is BTC something that will gain in value over time (like it has for the last number of years)? How strong of a feeling do you have and what is your rationale?
A. I have been invested in bitcoin and telling people to invest in bitcoin since it was at $100 or so. That means that for every dollar someone invested in bitcoin back when I was pounding the table over and over about it back in 2013, that every dollar is now worth $450 or so. I do think bitcoin will continue to sustain its value vs the US dollar (and vs every fiat currency really) pretty much forever or at least until a real, actual BETTER crypto store of value comes out.
Q. Cody, what is your current nibble and trim prices for ETH and BTC? Thanks! Also, I found this article on Forbes today about crypto replacing the US Dollar, which you predicted already.
A. Yea, it’s amazing how most writing about the potential for crypto reads just like what I was writing about it seven years ago. Even as a long-term crypto believer, I’m still shocked at how big crypto has become this quickly. I’m probably not going to buy more crypto anytime soon, but if you don’t own enough you might look at more Bitcoin near $42k or so and Eth below $3k or so.
Q. How much HNT was your miner creating on a daily basis, and which type of miner have you been using?
A. It was creating about 0.3 HNT per week. I have this bobcat miner and I have like 3 others I ordered from different companies to try out that haven’t been delivered for 2 months so far now. https://www.bobcatminer.com/
Q. I’ll be interested to see how well your Bobcat performs over a more populace area. At .3 HNT per week, it would take you almost a year to make back the cost of the miner, even if you got a good deal on it. Some of the Bobcat miners are going for upwards of $2k/per on Ebay.
A. Wow, I ordered my bobcat miner back in March and I paid $400 for it. And how long it takes to make back my dollars spent will also partly depend on the price of HNT, of course.
Q. Thoughts on VACQ? Are you surprised it didn’t trade lower than we expected on its first day public under RKLB?
A. Lower? I’m not sure what you’re asking…sorry.
Q. You said it would probably trade around 8-9$.
A. Hmm, I think I said it might trade down to those levels, but I sure am not outright expecting it too. Last time I wrote about VACQ this is what I said: “VACQ is Rocket Labs, not VACQ. Rocket Labs is other than SpaceX, my favorite space company. Well I mean, there’s Relativity Space also and it’s private that we own. But Rocket Labs is awesome. Valuation, isn’t terrific here at the 10 bucks that it’s trading at or 11 bucks, whatever, than it’s trading at and that the SPAC is coming public at six or eight. At eight bucks, I’d get start buying it pretty aggressively. If it got down to six, I’d make it a very big position.”
Q. RKLB is tanking. Anyone know why? I think it used to be VACQ.
A. Yes, it changed from VACQ to RKLB as the SPAC deal closed this week. It was up a bunch before today and today it’s giving that back. It’s an early stage Space Revolution company that will definitely continue to be very volatile.
Q. What’s the current outlook on GNPK and SFTW? They don’t seem to move at all.
A. Yes, they’ve both been boooooring as we wait for their SPACs to hit. I’m sitting tight with medium-sized positions in each because I do believe that it will be too late to get into the good Space Revolution stocks when the world finally comes around to realizing the size of the soon-to-be-future space economy.
Q. What price would you suggest to get in, if we haven’t, on GNPK & SFTW?
A. I always suggest starting small and getting the first tranche in. Then add a little more later, hopefully at even lower prices.
Q. JMIA and RKLB, where are they on a 1-10 scale?
A. I’d say JMIA is a 6+ and RKLB is an 8+.
Q. Cody, what are your thoughts on nibbling some UBER or JMIA here? I believe both are in your target range. Don’t seem to be too many great buys out there but these two have pulled back enough to make them interesting.
A. I hate to say it, but I’m going to let go of JMIA here. I think Africa will be a big market in decades to come, but I am going to clear out that name for now. As noted above, I like UBER near $40 here.
Q. I am a little disappointed in UBER, hope we have better days ahead.
A. We just bought Uber a few weeks ago. I’d love it if it went up immediately after we built a full position, but it also takes some time to build a full position. I’ve nibbled more UBER near $40 as noted before and I consider it, like most of our investments, to be a long-term investment.
Q. Cody, does Facebook’s Horizon Workroom app make you any less bullish on Immersed? I know you anticipated competition from the big boys when you made the investment. Thanks.
A. Horizon Workroom is indeed competition for Immersed. But Immersed has the edge of being platform agnostic and Oculus is just one platform that Immersed is trying to develop its products for.
Q. Wondering, have you taken a fresh look at Unity since their last earnings release?
A. Yes, and I want to own it. I just can’t justify the valuation.
Q. Good Afternoon Cody. I am very glad that the therapy for Amaris went well sir. It looked like that jumper was going down. Anyway what are your thoughts on MP now that it seems China may have the keys in Afghanistan?
A. China and Afghanistan and all of the geopolitical scene out there is more of the same trend….we need to have domestic production of rare earths and MP is the purest play on that.
Q. Here is my question to Cody, how do you get around the 35% tax when you buy and sell something with a few weeks gap? For example, INFI.
A. You don’t get around it but you can balance your recognized gains with recognized losses.
Q. Do you have any opinion on synthetic pharma like AMRS, ZY, and SRNG?
A. SRNG looks most promising of the 3. I’d rather short AMRS than buy it. ZY at $8 is a good call option on the business as they have like $7 per share in cash, but I’m not in any of them.
Q. Cody, what do you think of PLTR? I’m asking because I saw that they are collaborating with BlackSky.
A. I need to go back and do some fresh research on Palantir. Piper, please do the magic research collection on PLTR. I’ll let you know if I find it compelling.
Q. I’ve been following Wheels Up (UP) recently. It seems to be incredibly undervalued with $1B in revenue forecasts and a $1.7B market cap. They claim surging demand, and seem to be trying to revolutionize private air travel. Mind taking a look?
A. I see that UP had 10% gross margins last year and that’s just not high enough to justify a bigger valuation for now. I’ll have to see what gross margins projections are for this company that’s growing 20% per year before I could get excited about it.
Q. The GREAT RESET and your latest positions was finished April 30. I’ve lost track of your current positions could there be a link in the menu to these? Maybe I am missing something! Thanks for your high school basketball replay it took me back to those years in my life playing Hockey.
A. Yes, I’m going to update the Latest Positions starting this week. Here’s a screenshot of the missed game-winning 3 pointer by the way:
That’s a wrap, all. Thank you!
