Trade Alert: Selling Three More Names Plus Some Thoughts on Cryptos and Crypto Stocks
One of my hedge fund friends’ traders likes to say that stocks don’t go up until people stop selling. It’s not the buying power that makes stocks go up most of the time, it’s the lack of sellers. The markets are trying to put on a meaningful bounce here and I’m going to calmly continue to clean out a bit of the portfolio here removing another losing name or two. I’m selling IONQ, SHOP and TCEHY.
Meanwhile, the crypto market has some serious reckoning and (wrecking) going on.
I’m still a long-term believer in bitcoin of course, but I think the entire cryptocurrency market might be going through its own Great Financial Crypto Crisis and there aren’t any central banks to backstop or bailout these things. The silly, fraudulent and stupid cryptos are likely headed to zero sooner rather than later now. There’s been more than one trillion lost in crypto so far and there’s probably another trillion dollars of losses coming in the crypto market which CoinMarketCap.com says has 19,430 cryptos that are still worth $1.326 trillion trading on 526 exchanges with $140 billion of volume in the last 24 hours. It might take a few weeks, it might take a few months or it might take a few hours for about 19,000 of those existing cryptos to start crashing towards their final zero price targets. Most crypto enthusiasts who didn’t just lose every dime they had in the Luna Terra mess are pretty sure this is just another great buying opportunity for bitcoin and other cryptos:
Remember that while bitcoin has critical mass and ethereum provides a platform for smart contracts, cryptos pretty much have no intrinsic value, no cash flows, no balance sheet to support any particular level of prices. In the hedge fund, I’m also shorting some of bitcoin-related stocks like COIN, MSTR and SI (Please do not short these stocks in your personal account unless you have lots of experience doing so. These are hedges.)
On the long side, I still have my ROKU and PYPL other recent nibbles on the sheets and am sitting mostly tight with the rest of my longs here. There are some select tech stocks that have gotten crushed to levels where they are trading quite reasonable, if not outright attractive valuations. But there are plenty others that are still trading at a very high price to promise ratio. That is, the prices remain quite high even as the promise of the future growth and earnings for many of these companies have come down. The ones that don’t have real revenues and gross margins are going to have a hard time finding a bottom.
I’m going to need to do a mind-refresh and recharge myself here. As such, for the first time in a year or so, I’m going to take next week off and play with daughters, play some golf outside, sit by the pool a little bit and otherwise try to not stare at and/or analyze the markets, the economy, politics, valuations, technological road maps, crypto concepts and so on. If anything goes crazy, I’ll be around and will send out a note.
Peace and love til then.
