Trade Alert: Two more trims AND Why cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are about to crash again
I have to move our Livestream Q&A Chat to noon 12pm ET (instead of 2pm) today.The IAm Cody Willard App Live Streaming isn’t working, so I’ll do the Livestream on my Facebook account on my facebook.com/clwillard/ account and on my youtube/clwillard channel. I’ll also take questions over the phone on our conference call line (Dial-in: 641-715-0700 Access Code: 709981), in the Trading With Cody chat room or just email us your question to support@tradingwithcody.com.
Let’s hit on some of our holdings that are in the news in the meantime.
Nvidia. Nvidia. NVIDIA! The stock has added $18 billion in market cap, is up $40 or about 15% in the last two weeks and, more importantly to us, is up 700% in the 26 months that we’ve owned it. I’m bullish on the company, but the stock is trading at 10x sales right now. As I explained in the most recent Latest Positions: “Do you realize that Intel is still down 30% from its all-time highs set back in the summer of….the year 2000! Intel‘s market cap in the year 2000 was more than $300 billion and the company did just over $30 billion in sales that year — meaning it was trading at nearly 10x sales (just like Nvidia trades at 10x sales today). Today, Intel is worth $225 billion and will do $70 billion in sales, meaning it’s trading at just over 3x sales.” I’m going to go ahead and trim another 5-10% of my NVDA this morning before the earnings report tonight.
Solar Edge reported, as Spek phrased it in the Trading With Cody Chat Room this morning: SEDG posted a hat trick – beat on EPS and revenue and better than expected guidance. Great quarter and they even could post better earnings if there were no shortage of components. This stock is up 300% since we bought it and I’m going to go ahead and trim about 10% my SEDG this morning.
Why cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are about to crash again
A couple months ago, I shared with you guys some of the many messages and conversations I was having with people who wanted me to tell them The Great Cryptocurrency Crash was over. The pain in cryptocurrencies was palpable as bitcoin and every other crypto crashed 60-70% in a straight line from the day I published that book. Now, I see and hear everybody in cryptos bragging about how much money they’ve made with comments like from this: “Imagine my face 45 days ago when my wife told me we were all in in bitcoin and imagine my face now.” I asked simply, “Did you sell? Did you sell any?” His answer: “Of course not.”
Or this back and forth from someone I’ve never met who messengered me on Facebook:
“Hey Cody, I am wondering if you are seeing what I’m seeing in the top three virtual currencies. Consolidation on increased volume. The real big money is about to get in over the next 12 months and 10x is from here seems highly probable. I’m not expecting a better entry point in the future. Your thoughts.”
My reply: Haven’t you seen my stuff? More crash coming. 10x from here seems v unlikely anytime soon
Him: “I have seen your posts. You can’t ignore the price action at these volumes though.”
Me: You been trading these cryptos? How long?
Him: “Nope. I have money to lose. But I know that so want to trade anything that has this kind of liquidity and volatility. I watch, I see if I can decern a pattern. I’ve been watching for a few years. My first huge mistake, the one that knocked me out of being a day trader, was shorting into the tech bubble. I lost huge being right. I was in Belgium when the Russians defaulted on their bonds and missed the huge downward move that I had been anticipating. I hope that I learned a few things through that incredible, heady time in being a trader.”
My parting comment: If you think you can trade cryptos better than you did the tech bubble….I’m afraid I don’t think you leaned the important lesson from the tech bubble 🙂. Best of luck to you. Be careful!
Pretty interesting how human psychology swings with markets, huh? The biggest difference between bitcoin/cyrptos versus stocks is that there are no underlying fundamental earnings or assets for most of the cryptos. I am working with a company that will be bringing to market a crypto/blockchain token that is indeed backed by assets and equity, but it’s not open to the public yet and it’s unlike any existing cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
Anyway, a contrarian might conclude that cryptocurrencies are ready for another swift whoosh down to counter the hubris of the longs/bulls/crypto traders that is clearly dominant once again. Like I told that dude who’s thinking that “the real big money is about to move in” — BE CAREFUL out there.
