Trade Alert: What I’m Nibbling On Today PLUS Crypto Crash Prediction Updates
In case there was any lingering doubt, we are indeed on the Other Side Of The Great Bubble. I’ve been saying that we’ll have to carefully navigate, remaining cautious and defensive as this unwinding of all kinds of asset bubbles continues apace. That said…
It probably won’t surprise you to hear that I’d rather be a buyer and a short-coverer than a seller into this panic today. I’ve long been warning that cryptocurrencies were in big trouble and ready to crash and today’s crash makes this ongoing crash really ugly. In the hedge fund, I’m not covering any of the ETH short position I’ve talked about often but I did buy a little more bitcoin futures in the hedge fund to offset some of that ETH short exposure. I’m also selling a little bit of my puts in COIN, MSTR and SI but still keeping some short exposure there too. Remember when I wrote a book called The Bitcoin Revolution And The Great Cryptocurrency Crash and rushed out its publication date when bitcoin went into a Blow-Off Top back in December 2017 and nailed the exact top? Bitcoin was at about $20,000 at the time and it dropped about 85% in a straight line after that. I suppose $20,000 is probably a pretty decent target for bitcoin here now, although with it hitting $22,000ish today, that’s just 10% away from $20,000 which is pretty much a rounding error. I think ETH Ethereum is in bigger trouble than bitcoin is, as I’ve been saying for a while now and I think it could easy trade down below $1000 and that maybe $300 is a target for ETH.
In the hedge fund, I’m doing some nibbling on some of my favorite longs today too including:
INTC, META, QCOM, RKLB, PYPL, and even a little bit of U.
I’m not aggressive in buying these names here but we have been waiting for panicky sell-offs to do more buying and this is indeed a big-time panicky sell-off today, extending last week’s panicky sell-off action. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the market continue to act poorly into Wednesday’s Fed meeting which will probably be anti-climactic. The market probably wants the Fed to raise rates at least 75bps and maybe a full 1%. The market won’t care what Powell et al have to say — this is obviously still a no BS market and if they raise rates just 50bps and try to BS about how serious they are about fighting inflation, the market’s could continue to tank. I’d do more buying then, if we do get more panicky sell-offs this week.
Easy does it even as there are no easy answers. When everybody was partying and telling you that the upside was endless, I kept reminding you to be defensive and cautious because investing wasn’t supposed to be fun. Believe it or not, being in a position to buy some of these dips and scale into more long-term long exposure in Revolutionary companies probably will turn out to be fun…Over time, by building wealth slowly and not being greedy or fearful.
