Trade Alert – Adding some broker puts as tension builds

Tension is building out there in the markets. The bears can’t believe that the markets are at all time highs even with Apple acting like it is. The Google gets a couple analysts putting $1000 price targets on it, and you have to wonder if we’re in for a replay of what happened to Apple when it passed $700 and the analysts started putting their $1000 price targets on it.

I sold some GOOG down as noted yesterday and I’ve been selling down most of my calls in general, taking down my net overall exposure on the long side. And I’m now going to buy a new tranche of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley puts. Looking at the GS puts July $140-150s and the MS puts July $20-21s.

I think the banking system is having a lot more crisis under the service than the markets and mainstream media are realizing.

The playbook calls for us to buy euphoria and that’s what I think we’re seeing in the Goldman and Morgan price action as those stocks have been on an utter tear and the world seems to have decided that the Endless Debt Crises around the world have suddenly resolved themselves. It hasn’t. And when the markets freak out about this type of stuff the next time, which I think is going to be sooner rather than later, we’ll want to sell our puts and look to get longer again.

And Marvell is up on the earnings front tonight. I bought some common and a few calls back in early January and I’m up slightly on the trade, but am holding it steady into the call tonight. Not adding to it, just letting the trade play out.

Here’s the estimates for the call, from JP Morgan’s analysts:

MRVL FQ4 earnings.  CC 4:45pmET 866.788.0541Pwd:61639137

  • Mgmt guidance for the Q: revs $700-740MM (w/wireless revs dwn 30% Q/Q, networking up LSD, and storage flat).  GMs seen ~53%, OMs ~10%, and EPS ~0.13.
  • St ests for Jan: revs $720.74MM, GMs 52.9%, OMs 9.8%, EPS 0.13
  • St ests for Apr: revs $710.5MM, GMs 53.07%, OMs 10.3%, EPS 0.13

Feet to fire, I think if the company can report just pretty good numbers and guide decently, the stock could run for us.





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