I'm going to riff on a bunch of related deep thoughts and than summarize them all up at the end with strategy and trading ideas. (Let's do a Google talk tomorrow (Friday) at noon for this week's Live Q&A Chat at 12pm ET. We're going to jump on the video conferencing train and use Google Hangout Meetings. You can join the video chat at … [Read more...] about Deep Thoughts About The Coronavirus Economic and Market Ramifications
Trade Alert
The Difference Between Down And Up (And I’m Trimming This Spike As Planned)
Up, no, now down! Wait, up and up more. Wait down, it's a crash. It's another crash. Wait, it's a big rally! Can you tell the difference between the up and down days? Well, today brings us just exactly the kind of insane bounce of 10-30% in some of our names into which I told you I'd trim these positions when I sent out the Trade Alert that I was buying them...just … [Read more...] about The Difference Between Down And Up (And I’m Trimming This Spike As Planned)
Don’t doubt the USA or mankind’s ability to prosper
We're living through a crash. We might have just lived through a crash. But we might still be in the process of living through a crash. The markets hate confusion. The markets can't discount future cash flows if nobody has any idea what future cash flows will look like post-Coronavirus Crisis time. We don't even know at this point if there will be a post-Coronavirus Crisis … [Read more...] about Don’t doubt the USA or mankind’s ability to prosper
Trade Alert: Prepare For Better Times
I'm glad I'm not in NYC this week. Wish I hadn't taken my family there last week. There's no doubt that the developed world has become Coronavirus obsessed. I would imagine a lot of this germ-phobia is going to stay with us, and that next year flu contractions will be down 20%. The stock market headlines are full of fear, warnings and what I might even call hyperbole. Here's … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Prepare For Better Times
Trade Alert: Don’t Panic When Everybody’s Panicking
I know that governments' actions are almost always incompetent, so I'm not terribly surprised that the government has been totally incompetent in how it has approached the coronavirus breakout, but it is always surprising the ways in which they mess something up. In this case, wouldn't it have been easier to have started manufacturing testing kits as soon as the coronavirus … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Don’t Panic When Everybody’s Panicking
Trade Alert: Flow into the market’s ebb
Over the last five weeks, I've been to NYC twice and visited Austin and Las Vegas too. With the novel coronavirus still growing in the US, I'm going to stop traveling for at least the next four weeks. I got back from NYC early this morning and am back in the office full-speed today. As for the markets, I'm doing exactly as I'd outlined earlier this week -- I trimmed the huge … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Flow into the market’s ebb
Trade Alert: Here’s the playbook
It's another ugly open, and everybody expects the close to be even worse, since they assume nobody wants to buy before the weekend. I think people were thinking that yesterday already and that means maybe everybody who wanted to sell before the weekend already has. Good thing we aren't trying to game short-term market moves. Here's the playbook for this morning. I'm putting … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Here’s the playbook
Trade Alert: Getting a little longer as the market panics
Fear is palpable. Panic is in the air. Stock markets down 10% in a week. Headlines blaring fearful news. Time to nibble. Time to cover some shorts. With the DJIA down another 800 points today as I type this, I'm covering 15-20% of most of my short index hedges across the board. I'm nibbling on some AMD, some CSCO, some DIS, some FB, some QCOM, some ROKU (more on this … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Getting a little longer as the market panics
What The Headlines Will Say About Coronavirus In A Month
The DJIA tried to rally and got up a full 450 points...before falling 600 points from that level and is now down 150 points as I write this. Even as I'd been so cautious and defensive and I'd warned repeatedly about how the market should not be looking past the Novel Coronavirus (the virus formerly known as COVID-19, formerly known as the Wuhan Virus), I'm, like you, worried … [Read more...] about What The Headlines Will Say About Coronavirus In A Month
Trade Alert: Nibbling, covering and being cool when others panic
Well, we'd spent the last two or three weeks trimming, selling and hedging to try to prepare for the kind of sell-off the markets are now going through. I'm kicking myself for not having pulled more triggers on short ideas with China's major trading partners, as I'd suggested we look to do as the COVID-19/Novel Coronavirus (seems like the media has gone back to calling it … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Nibbling, covering and being cool when others panic