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Greece debt debacle: Analyis and playbook

June 29, 2015 by Cody Willard

My daughter Amaris is a strong warrior princess. She was born with Trisomy-13 and is still in the hospital — she’s stable and comfortable still, but we need her brain to tell her lungs to breath consistently so she can get off the ventilator. Thanks again for all your prayers and well-wishes.

I’m going to be working from Albuquerque this week so expect a usual schedule of posts, reports and other articles from me. Markets are closed on Friday, and then I should be back with a usual schedule of posts, reports and other articles again next week.

As far as Greece and the markets go, I think I want to see some more panic and when you can see the whites of the bears eyes, it might be time to start scaling into some longside trades. Nothing for me yet this morning.

I am always amazed at the extent of which governments will go to preserve the status quo. I’ve argued for five years, over and over again, that the only way a risk of Greece default ever actually gets out of the headlines is through a full restructuring of the debt with the lenders eating most of their losses and/or letting Greece just leave the EU entirely. Instead, we continually deal with this same scenario of governments trying to kick the can down the road by pretending these endless stop-gap measures could somehow become a real, permanent solution.

The whole Greek debt debacle comes down to this — stupid governments and their largest banks lent huge amounts of money to Greece that the Greek government will never be able to fully repay and instead of those government balance sheets and large banks having to eat their losses, they scramble with gimmicky accounting and temporary interest payments. They pretend the loan losses don’t really exist that way. It’s a sham, it’s a shame and the longer they kick the can down the road, the worse the retribution from the economy’s balancing forces will someday be.

Anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a few more days of panicky kind of selling action in the broader stock markets, if only because so many traders and bullish investors are looking for this to be the near-term bottom today. I’ll likely want to step in and do some scaling into some favorite long-term positions and/or even add a shorter-term long trade here or there if the opportunity to do so in a real panicky sell-off presents itself. We need to let the markets, through time and price movements, dictate what those opportunities are.

You guys know I will be aggressive when I think the time and opportunity are right to do so. Stay steady, stay vigilant and stay objective. We got this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related posts:

Pre-IPOs, Cryptocurrency playbook, PANW, and my family too
New trade: Flunk this for-profit educator
No chat today due to shortened holiday week
Takeaways from SALT in Abu Dhabi: A world in search of growth
Focus on secular growth: Despite the Europe crisis, this tech stock has legs
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Filed Under: Trading

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

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