Happy President’s Day.
Apple says coronavirus effects will cause revenues to fall short of guidance
That’s not good news, but we were quite preparing for this weren’t we? Also, we’ll have to see just how big the market reaction will be to this news tomorrow. Futures had been pointing to an open of nearly half of one percent on the Nasdaq before this news hit a few hours ago. Now it’s looking like they’ll open one half of one percent lower. Even if the markets don’t tank tomorrow, I remain in cautious/defensive mode and will not be in any rush to scale back into more long exposure. Let’s see what the pitches bring.
On another note, I’m headed to Austin TX tomorrow to help keep it weird. And also to be the MC at the Austin CFA Annual Dinner. I’ll be talking to the following variety of people and it should be quite educational to get these perspectives on China Trade/Covid/Bond Bubble/etc. I’ll be sure to break it all down in review when I get back Thursday or Friday. We’ll do this week’s Live Q&A Chat on Friday at 10am ET. If anything gets crazy out there, I’ll send out a note from the road otherwise, I’ll see you Thursday or Friday. Stay weird.
Rodger Baker joined Stratfor in 1997 and leads Stratfor’s strategic thinking on global issues and future trends. As the firm’s senior analyst, Mr. Baker guides the company’s analytical process, to include the development of international analyst teams to refine their understanding and application of Stratfor’s proprietary methodology grounded in the study of applied geopolitics and intelligence analysis. Mr. Baker holds a master’s degree in military history from Norwich University, the oldest private military university in the United States. He has studied and worked in South Korea and graduated with honors from Southampton College, Long Island University.
Jason Bedford joined Bridgewater in 2019, and is currently a Senior China Research Associate on the China Research team. Prior to joining Bridgewater, he spent nearly six years at UBS as a China banking analyst. He also spent nearly a decade with KPMG in Beijing, primarily serving as an auditor and consultant for the mainland financial services sector. While there, he had a core focus on the banking sector as well as non-bank lenders (aka “shadow banks“) which included the trust sector, leasing, micro-finance and credit guarantee. He has spoken as a subject matter expert on these topics for the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Trustee Association and numerous banks.
Joachim Fels is the Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO, working in the Newport Beach headquarters. In addition to his roles as Managing Director and member of the Investment Committee, he leads PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical as well as the Secular Forum process. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2015, he was the Global Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley in London. Previously, he was an international economist at Goldman Sachs and a research associate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Joachim has 32 years of macroeconomic research experience.
Joyce Li is a Portfolio Manager for Matthews Asia, the largest dedicated Asia investment specialist in the United States with offices in San Francisco, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai. Prior to joining Matthews Asia in 2016, Joyce was a Portfolio Manager and Principal at Marvin & Palmer Associates, investing in Asia markets since 2007. Joyce frequently speaks at conferences on topics of investing and corporate governance in Asia. Joyce will share her insights on how to invest in China during this tumultuous time of Trade Wars and Tariffs.
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