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Trade Alert: Trimming some of our index puts into another panicky open

November 20, 2018 by Cody Willard Leave a Comment

Stocks crushed again this morning. Here’s what I’m going to do. With the Nasdaq down another 2.5% this morning, I’m going to sell about 1/3 of my SPY and QQQ puts. And that’s it for now. Lots of great Q&A from our live chat this morning including these two:

Q. I remember Cisco in 2001 and 2002 and it just sat there for years. Is the potential for that to happen to AMZN and FB and other names now? Is FAANG broken for ten years? A. When Cisco hit $80 in the year 2000, it had a $500 billion market cap. It was going to need to double revenues every year for the next five years if it were going to grow into and justify that half a trillion dollar market cap. That kind of valuation is exactly what I laid out for TLRY yesterday. AMZN and FAANG don’t have those kind of wacky valuation metrics like CSCO did in 2000 and TLRY and CGC and other pot stocks do right now. I would think that there’s better odds that TLRY and CGC are dead for years than AMZN FAANG. Heck, FB is trading at 16x next year’s earnings estimates. So the answer is no, I don’t think FAANG will be dead for the next ten years.

Q. Cody – a year from now are we looking at this moment as a good time to have bought stocks like Apple and Amazon or as a signal that a recession was coming? A. Nobody can answer that question for sure until this time next year, but it doesn’t have to be either/or. I do think that GOOG at $1000 and AAPL at $178 and AMZN at $1435 are very good entry points, even if there’s going to be a recession. Doesn’t mean that these levels are the bottom for those stocks, but from a long-term, three to ten or longer year time horizon, I would think these are good prices to buy not sell.


Related posts:

Trade Alert: Adding to Synaptics PLUS analysis on Sony and Facebook
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Trade Alert: They'll be dancing in The Street
Trade Alert: Selling, nibbling, covering, and, yes, UBER
Trade Alert: Brexit playbook (or Putting on my British shorts)
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Filed Under: Trade Alert

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

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