The stock markets are trying to give back all their gains from this week and then some. Be careful, but maybe do some nibbling if you did some trimming when I was suggesting it earlier this week. And if you’re freaking out over today’s sell-off, it might be time to trim a little bit more anyway, just to let out some of the pressure.
Now onto today’s Trade Alert:
I happen to believe, like Warren Buffett and most other investors, that there’s going to be billions of dollars made in The Cannabis Revolution.
That said, my theory is that even the best of the stocks in the marijuana sector are way overvalued and too risky. I expect that we’ll see at least one more crash in the marijuana stock sector which will help to cut off access to capital for the crappy/fraudulent marijuana companies that are going to end up going bankrupt at some point. That next crash will actually help the industry, much like when the dot com bubble crashed and the crappy dot coms like Pets.com and the fraudulent dot coms went bankrupt which helped enable the winners like Google and Amazon and Netflix to continue to rise.
Now all that said, I’ve got a play on The Cannabis Revolution for you, and it’s going to surprise you. I’m buying Altria Group symbol MO. I don’t like the fact that the company sells nicotine and propagandizes and tries to get people addicted and all that. But then again, as you guys know, I don’t like the fact that Facebook invades mine and other people’s privacy without our consent or that Google tries to get my children addicted to YouTube Kids. And running a hedge fund, I’m in the business of trying to find asymmetric risk/reward scenarios and that’s what MO is.
The company has already invested about $2 billion into a cannabis company called Cronos. Cronos, among other things, is focused on developing synthetic cannabinoids. As Altria has also invested billions into e-cigarette maker Juul, you can imagine one day they might be selling e-joints made with synthetic pot for very high margins.
Remember my analogy about how Campbell’s can use their distribution network to run higher margin content to end users? That’s what we have with Altria too.
So what we have here is a play on The Cannabis Revolution that is trading at 12x earnings with a nearly 6% dividend instead of the 200x next year’s sales estimates that you see for The Cannabis Revolution pure plays.
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