Everybody wants to be a Revolution Investor these days. It’s gotten crowded around here. Let’s step back and look around and get some perspective on how we make money long term. It’s not about looking around for 10% growers… It’s about much more than that. Strut pout, cut it out, all taking and no giving […]
Trade Alert: What I’m Nibbling On Today PLUS Crypto Crash Prediction Updates
In case there was any lingering doubt, we are indeed on the Other Side Of The Great Bubble. I’ve been saying that we’ll have to carefully navigate, remaining cautious and defensive as this unwinding of all kinds of asset bubbles continues apace. That said… It probably won’t surprise you to hear that I’d rather be […]
Trade Alert: Crashy Market And Here’s How Inflation Will Play Out Over The Next Two Years
There’s only so much oil in the earth It’s a fact of life – for what it’s worth Something every little boy and girl should know since birth That there’s only so much oil in the ground There’s no excuse for our abuse No excuse for our abuse We just assume that we will not […]
We’ve Seen These Cycles Before, Here’s Playbook For Those Revolutionary Profits
“There is an old investing adage – often mistakenly attributed to Nathan Mayer Rothschild – that one should “buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets”. Most of all, don’t be greedy by getting levered up in the summer of 2007 when the credit cycle is working against you. The endless […]
Bear Market Length, The Great Codini Says, Companies That Become Verbs And More
Here’s the transcript from this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A chat. Just an FYI, in the hedge fund, I nibbled some puts on SI, COIN and MSTR today, dated out to the next week or two and at prices both below and a bit above the market. Not something I recommend for most personal […]
Trade Alert: Nibbling Five Stocks Or So
Stop me if you’ve heard this before — it’s still ugly out there. We are now probably to the point where if a company comes out and says something is actually going better than expected (ZM doesn’t count, it was just fine but not a “things are better than we thought!” kind of quarter) the […]
Trade Alert: Selling Three More Names Plus Some Thoughts on Cryptos and Crypto Stocks
One of my hedge fund friends’ traders likes to say that stocks don’t go up until people stop selling. It’s not the buying power that makes stocks go up most of the time, it’s the lack of sellers. The markets are trying to put on a meaningful bounce here and I’m going to calmly continue […]
Trade Alert: I’ve Been Wrong About A Lot And Here Are Some Moves I’m Making
I need to get this off my chest. I’ve been wrong about a lot for the last year. Though I definitely got more cautious as I did a “Great Reset” and trimmed several of our positions last year and stayed defensive overall as The Speculative And SPAC Bubble started popping and then I turned outright […]
Trade Alert: We’ve Now Lived Through A Major Part Of The Crash
It’s just nasty out there, with stocks down big across the board. Even the S&P 500 is just being taken out to the woodshed, down almost 3% on the day. The speculative stocks are down double digits across the board, ARKK is down almost 9% on the day, Bitcoin’s down 10% since Friday’s close and […]
Trade Alert: How I’m Buying SKTL Space Tokens Since It Airdropped
Here’s how I am starting to buy the tiniest bit of SKTLs Space Debris-Cleaning cryptocurrency tokens, and you can too even if you didn’t get any of the free airdrop. To be clear, I am only buying the tiniest bit of SKTL tokens using maybe like 0.01% of my risk capital and I don’t think […]
The Other Side Of The Bubble: Analysis For Stocks, Crypto And Bonds
I had a very insightful and fun trip to NYC last week. The crypto regulations event that I chaired was full of people who want clarity from the various regulating bodies. It seems clear to me, at least at this point, that the US is definitely, as usual, in the lead on this, mostly because […]
Trade Alert: Betting On Indirect Brilliance
One of my best go-to principles of investing is to, as I’ve written about many times in the past, “Always Bet on Brilliance.” I wrote this when we first started buying Tesla back at around $50ish a share three years ago: “I have one name I am adding to the portfolio — and it’s another […]
Fog Of War And Dislocating Prices Are Not Good For The Markets
We’ve mostly made it through the Covid Crisis At Home, as Lyncoln and Lori have both mostly fully recovered while Amaris and I made it through testing negative and without symptoms. Lori’s 79 year-old father is still struggling with symptoms. Let’s talk about the economy and markets here. If my theory has been that the […]
Trade Alert: Taking Some Profits + Un-Globalizing The Economy, Stocks Vs Real Estate And More
Before I jump into the questions, let me say this — if you were losing sleep or otherwise stressing out about your stock account at the lows late last week, now is the time to readjust your portfolio. Take a little off on your some of your larger positions, especially if you have one or […]
Trade Alert: The New Global Economic Paradigm Means New Risks (And Eventual Rewards)
I got back from Austin late last night after a very productive and even fun trip so Amaris could do five days of intensive neuromovement therapy. Here’s a shot of her at work learning to sit up on her own and otherwise figure out new movements. Now let’s move onto all this other stuff…. This […]
Trading Lessons From Recent Wars Aren’t Applicable This Time (Plus A Trade Alert: Here’s What I’m Buying Today)
I obviously don’t know the end game of the Russian Ukraine crisis, but I do know from history (and most recently from the 83 episodes I’ve listened to so far on the Russian Revolution on the Revolutions Podcast from Mike Duncan) that this is a centuries-old conflict that is currently re-flaring up. The West doesn’t […]
Trade Alert: SHOP + Chat Transcript (Chips, Cody’s Top 5 And More)
With Shopify getting killed today after already having gotten killed for weeks on end, I’m sneaking in and starting a position here around and below $730. SHOP is still not cheap, but I’ll start a position here and will look to add more on further weakness. More analysis to come obviously. Here’s the transcript from […]
Trade Alert: Names To Nibble
APOLOGIES. THIS IS THE CORRECTED VERSION FINALLY! NOT MUCH CHANGED except that I fixed a couple typos and added links to the videos. Sorry for the version published earlier that had typos. Ah, the economy and the markets sure seem like they are in a tough spot right now, eh? And it might be a […]
Trade Alert: Cleaning Out A Few Names Here On The Other Side Of The Bubble
The Bubble-Blowing Bull Market got crazy in 2020 and in February 2021, it got so crazy that I did “The Great Reset“. Resets never stop in the market though and I want to look back in order to look forward so let’s start with something I wrote for my hedge fund partners recently: ‘One of […]
Mea Culpa, NFLX Trade Alert, Buying Strategies And Lots Of Stocks Q&A
Here’s the transcript from this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A chat. Q. In your macro US/world view, do you see inflation or deflation being the more significant medium to long term challenge? A. Inflation by far. In fact, I’m one of the rare economists who thinks that deflation is actually good for 90% of […]